Statistiche / Calcio / Mondo. Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification / Tunisia vs Botswana

Tunisia vs Botswana Statistics & Analysis

Tunisia Tunisia
Sep 28, 2026 - 19:00
2 1.38
2 1.22
xG Accuracy: 68%
Botswana Botswana
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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

  • Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 gol) ✔ Corretto
  • Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
  • 1X2 Tunisia Pareggio ✖ Errato
  • Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 22, 2026 · 02:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10251441

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Tunisia 2–2 Botswana
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification
  • Fixture: Tunisia vs Botswana
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-28 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
  • xG (showing): Tunisia 1.38 — Botswana 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: AI–Market Conflict - No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification — Classifiche
# SQUADRA PG V P S PT
1 Marocco 2 2 0 0 6
2 Gabon 2 1 0 1 3
3 Niger 2 1 0 1 3
4 Lesotho 2 0 0 2 0
# SQUADRA PG GS GC +/- PT
1 Marocco 2 4 0 +4 6
2 Gabon 2 2 2 0 3
3 Niger 2 2 3 -1 3
4 Lesotho 2 1 4 -3 0