Statistiche / Calcio / Mondo. UEFA Nations League / Turchia vs Italia

Turchia vs Italia Statistics & Analysis

Turchia Turchia
Sep 28, 2026 - 18:45
1 1.84
4 1.95
xG Accuracy: 45%
Italia Italia
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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

  • Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 gol) ✔ Corretto
  • Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
  • 1X2 Italia Italia ✔ Corretto
  • Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 1-3 1-4 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 22, 2026 · 02:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10251296

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Italia win · Turchia 1–4 Italia
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: UEFA Nations League
  • Fixture: Turchia vs Italia
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-28 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.9% · Draw 24.9% · Away 39.2%
  • xG (showing): Turchia 1.84 — Italia 1.95 (total xG ≈ 3.79)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 73.0% · Implied: 56.9% · Probability edge: +16.1 pts · Est. EV: +26.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 73.2% · No 26.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (8.1%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Esito: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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UEFA Nations League UEFA Nations League — Classifiche
# SQUADRA PG V P S PT
1 Francia 4 3 1 0 10
2 Italia 4 2 1 1 7
3 Belgio 4 2 0 2 6
4 Turchia 4 0 0 4 0
# SQUADRA PG GS GC +/- PT
1 Italia 4 8 5 +3 7
2 Francia 4 7 2 +5 10
3 Belgio 4 6 5 +1 6
4 Turchia 4 2 11 -9 0
# SQUADRA PG xG xGC +/- PT
1 Francia 4 2.0 0.6 +1.4 10
2 Italia 4 2.0 1.4 +0.6 7
3 Turchia 4 1.4 2.0 -0.6 0
4 Belgio 4 0.6 2.0 -1.4 6