Fortaleza EC vs América Mineiro Statistics & Analysis

Fortaleza EC

Jun 16, 2026 - 23:00

0 1.70

3 1.36

xG Accuracy: 40%

América Mineiro

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 gol) ✔ Corretto
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì No ✖ Errato
1X2 Fortaleza EC América Mineiro ✖ Errato
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-0 0-3 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 08:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1689366

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result América Mineiro win · Fortaleza EC 0–3 América Mineiro

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Serie B Brasiliana
Fixture: Fortaleza EC vs América Mineiro
Kickoff: 2026-06-16 23:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 44.1% · Draw 26.5% · Away 29.4%
xG (showing): Fortaleza EC 1.7 — América Mineiro 1.36 (total xG ≈ 3.06)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 41.0% · Over 2.5 59.0%); BTTS Yes (Yes 62.2% · No 37.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 62.2% · No 37.8%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.8%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 09, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Serie B Brasiliana — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Juventude	32	17	8	7	59
2	Vila Nova	32	17	7	8	58
3	Fortaleza EC	32	15	11	6	56
4	Novorizontino	31	15	9	7	54
5	Criciúma	31	15	8	8	53
6	Atlético Goianiense	32	14	10	8	52
7	CRB	32	15	6	11	51
8	Sport Recife	32	13	11	8	50
9	Operario-PR	32	13	9	10	48
10	Cuiabá	32	11	14	7	47
11	Goiás	32	13	6	13	45
12	São Bernardo	32	12	9	11	45
13	Náutico Recife	31	11	9	11	42
14	Athletic Club	32	10	12	10	42
15	Ceará	31	10	9	12	39
16	Botafogo SP	32	10	8	14	38
17	Avaí	32	9	6	17	33
18	Londrina	32	7	7	18	28
19	América Mineiro	32	4	5	23	17
20	Ponte Preta	32	3	4	25	13

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Novorizontino	31	52	27	+25	54
2	CRB	32	49	45	+4	51
3	Vila Nova	32	44	31	+13	58
4	Sport Recife	32	44	34	+10	50
5	São Bernardo	32	44	34	+10	45
6	Operario-PR	32	44	43	+1	48
7	Atlético Goianiense	32	40	30	+10	52
8	Londrina	32	40	47	-7	28
9	Náutico Recife	31	39	38	+1	42
10	Athletic Club	32	38	37	+1	42
11	Juventude	32	37	19	+18	59
12	Fortaleza EC	32	37	27	+10	56
13	Botafogo SP	32	36	38	-2	38
14	Ceará	31	34	39	-5	39
15	Criciúma	31	33	27	+6	53
16	Cuiabá	32	32	25	+7	47
17	Goiás	32	32	40	-8	45
18	Avaí	32	32	43	-11	33
19	América Mineiro	32	21	53	-32	17
20	Ponte Preta	32	17	68	-51	13

#	SQUADRA	PG	xG	xGC	+/-	PT
1	Novorizontino	31	17.2	9.2	+8.0	54
2	Fortaleza EC	32	16.8	10.1	+6.7	56
3	Cuiabá	32	12.3	7.0	+5.3	47
4	Atlético Goianiense	32	15.2	11.1	+4.1	52
5	Avaí	32	11.9	8.5	+3.4	33
6	Vila Nova	32	13.3	10.1	+3.2	58
7	CRB	32	18.6	15.8	+2.8	51
8	Juventude	32	10.2	8.0	+2.2	59
9	Criciúma	31	10.0	8.1	+1.9	53
10	Sport Recife	32	13.7	12.6	+1.1	50
11	Londrina	32	10.4	9.6	+0.8	28
12	São Bernardo	32	12.6	12.6	0.0	45
13	Botafogo SP	32	13.7	13.8	-0.1	38
14	Náutico Recife	31	15.3	16.1	-0.8	42
15	Goiás	32	11.8	13.1	-1.3	45
16	Operario-PR	32	12.8	16.2	-3.4	48
17	Ceará	31	9.1	14.2	-5.1	39
18	América Mineiro	32	11.7	16.9	-5.2	17
19	Athletic Club	32	11.9	19.2	-7.3	42
20	Ponte Preta	32	8.7	24.8	-16.1	13