APR vs Rutsiro Statistics & Analysis

May 17, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 46%
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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

  • Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 gol) ✔ Corretto
  • Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) No No ✔ Corretto
  • 1X2 APR Pareggio ✖ Errato
  • Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 2-0, 0-1 0-0 ✔ Corretto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 23:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1657435

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · APR 0–0 Rutsiro
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Campionato Nazionale Ruanda
  • Fixture: APR vs Rutsiro
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-17 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): APR 1.45 — Rutsiro 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 60.9% · Over 2.5 39.1%); BTTS No (Yes 42.7% · No 57.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 42.7% · No 57.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (14.2%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 26, 2026 (UTC)

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Campionato Nazionale Ruanda Campionato Nazionale Ruanda — Classifiche
# SQUADRA PG V P S PT
1 Al Hilal Omdurman 34 23 6 5 75
2 APR 34 19 11 4 68
3 Al Merreikh 34 16 11 7 59
4 Rayon Sports 34 14 14 6 56
5 Kiyovu Sports 34 13 14 7 53
6 Police FC 34 12 16 6 52
7 Mukura 34 12 11 11 47
8 Marines 34 12 9 13 45
9 Bugesera FC 34 12 8 14 44
10 Musanze FC 34 11 10 13 43
11 Gorilla 34 10 10 14 40
12 Gicumbi 34 10 8 16 38
13 Etincelles 34 7 16 11 37
14 AS Kigali 34 8 11 15 35
15 Gasogi United 34 8 11 15 35
16 Amagaju 34 9 8 17 35
17 Muhanga 34 8 7 19 31
18 Rutsiro 34 6 11 17 29
# SQUADRA PG GS GC +/- PT
1 Al Hilal Omdurman 34 74 25 +49 75
2 APR 34 50 28 +22 68
3 Marines 34 47 43 +4 45
4 Al Merreikh 34 41 24 +17 59
5 Rayon Sports 34 40 30 +10 56
6 Musanze FC 34 38 37 +1 43
7 Gicumbi 34 38 54 -16 38
8 Mukura 34 36 38 -2 47
9 Kiyovu Sports 34 34 21 +13 53
10 Bugesera FC 34 34 39 -5 44
11 Etincelles 34 32 40 -8 37
12 Gorilla 34 31 42 -11 40
13 Rutsiro 34 30 47 -17 29
14 Police FC 34 29 19 +10 52
15 Gasogi United 34 29 44 -15 35
16 AS Kigali 34 27 39 -12 35
17 Muhanga 34 25 46 -21 31
18 Amagaju 34 19 38 -19 35