FBK Karlstad vs Piteå Statistics & Analysis

FBK Karlstad

Aug 30, 2026 - 11:00

4 1.42

3 1.18

xG Accuracy: 30%

Piteå

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 gol) ✖ Errato
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
1X2 FBK Karlstad FBK Karlstad ✔ Corretto
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 4-3 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 24, 2026 · 01:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5288092

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result FBK Karlstad win · FBK Karlstad 4–3 Piteå

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Ettan - Norra
Fixture: FBK Karlstad vs Piteå
Kickoff: 2026-08-30 11:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.6%
xG (showing): FBK Karlstad 1.42 — Piteå 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Esito: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 26, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Ettan - Norra — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Stockholm Internazionale	23	16	3	4	51
2	Hammarby Talang	24	13	6	5	45
3	AFC Eskilstuna	23	13	4	6	43
4	Arlanda	23	12	6	5	42
5	IF Karlstad	23	11	6	6	39
6	FBK Karlstad	23	11	6	6	39
7	Enköping	23	12	3	8	39
8	Assyriska FF	23	9	5	9	32
9	Gefle IF	23	9	3	11	30
10	Umeå FC	23	8	5	10	29
11	Karlbergs BK	23	8	4	11	28
12	Sollentuna	23	5	9	9	24
13	Vasalund	23	6	6	11	24
14	Piteå	23	4	6	13	18
15	Järfälla	23	5	3	15	18
16	Stocksund	24	3	5	16	14

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Stockholm Internazionale	23	55	19	+36	51
2	Hammarby Talang	24	50	23	+27	45
3	Stocksund	24	44	60	-16	14
4	Assyriska FF	23	42	40	+2	32
5	AFC Eskilstuna	23	41	30	+11	43
6	Arlanda	23	40	27	+13	42
7	Enköping	23	37	38	-1	39
8	FBK Karlstad	23	36	32	+4	39
9	IF Karlstad	23	35	23	+12	39
10	Vasalund	23	34	48	-14	24
11	Umeå FC	23	31	37	-6	29
12	Järfälla	23	30	50	-20	18
13	Karlbergs BK	23	29	38	-9	28
14	Gefle IF	23	29	41	-12	30
15	Piteå	23	27	44	-17	18
16	Sollentuna	23	21	31	-10	24