Le Messager Ngozi vs Inter Star Statistics & Analysis

Le Messager Ngozi

May 09, 2026 - 13:00

3 1.45

0 1.25

xG Accuracy: 46%

Inter Star

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 gol) ✖ Errato
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) No No ✔ Corretto
1X2 Le Messager Ngozi Le Messager Ngozi ✔ Corretto
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 20:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2082182

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Le Messager Ngozi win · Le Messager Ngozi 3–0 Inter Star

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Ligue A Burundi
Fixture: Le Messager Ngozi vs Inter Star
Kickoff: 2026-05-10 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Le Messager Ngozi 1.45 — Inter Star 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 58.3% · Over 2.5 41.7%); BTTS No (Yes 36.1% · No 63.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 36.1% · No 63.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.2%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Ligue A Burundi — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Aigle Noir	30	21	8	1	71
2	Musongati	30	17	8	5	59
3	Flambeau du Centre	30	16	8	6	56
4	Royal Vision	30	17	2	11	53
5	Rukinzo	30	14	8	8	50
6	Vital'O	30	14	8	8	50
7	Bumamuru	30	14	7	9	49
8	Muzinga	30	11	10	9	43
9	Olympic Star	30	10	9	11	39
10	Kayanza United	30	8	12	10	36
11	Le Messager Ngozi	30	8	9	13	33
12	Ngozi City	30	8	9	13	33
13	Inter Star	30	8	8	14	32
14	Dynamik	30	8	5	17	29
15	Garage Express	30	3	9	18	18
16	Green Farmers FC	30	1	4	25	7

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Aigle Noir	30	62	25	+37	71
2	Rukinzo	30	49	28	+21	50
3	Royal Vision	30	47	31	+16	53
4	Bumamuru	30	47	33	+14	49
5	Vital'O	30	45	27	+18	50
6	Musongati	30	42	21	+21	59
7	Flambeau du Centre	30	42	23	+19	56
8	Kayanza United	30	40	45	-5	36
9	Muzinga	30	37	38	-1	43
10	Inter Star	30	37	42	-5	32
11	Ngozi City	30	37	43	-6	33
12	Olympic Star	30	36	35	+1	39
13	Dynamik	30	35	58	-23	29
14	Le Messager Ngozi	30	31	33	-2	33
15	Green Farmers FC	30	25	84	-59	7
16	Garage Express	30	15	61	-46	18