Atlético de Rafaela vs Quilmes Statistics & Analysis

Atlético de Rafaela

Oct 17, 2026 - 00:00

1 1.29

0 1.31

xG Accuracy: 64%

Quilmes

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 gol) ✔ Corretto
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì No ✖ Errato
1X2 Quilmes Atlético de Rafaela ✖ Errato
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Corretto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 12, 2026 · 00:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-15106313

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Atlético de Rafaela win · Atlético de Rafaela 1–0 Quilmes

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Primera Nacional Argentina
Fixture: Atlético de Rafaela vs Quilmes
Kickoff: 2026-10-17 00:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
xG (showing): Atlético de Rafaela 1.29 — Quilmes 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
Model: 54.5% · Implied: 43.3% · Probability edge: +11.2 pts · Est. EV: +19.9%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Primera Nacional Argentina — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	33	18	8	7	62
2	Deportivo Morón	33	17	7	9	58
3	Godoy Cruz	32	16	8	8	56
4	Deportivo Madryn	33	14	11	8	53
5	Colón de Santa Fe	33	14	11	8	53
6	CA Estudiantes	33	13	9	11	48
7	Almirante Brown	33	12	11	10	47
8	Ciudad de Bolívar	32	11	12	9	45
9	Los Andes	32	9	13	10	40
10	Chaco For Ever	33	10	10	13	40
11	Defensores de Belgrano	33	8	13	12	37
12	San Telmo	32	9	10	13	37
13	Racing Córdoba	32	9	10	13	37
14	Atlético Mitre	33	7	15	11	36
15	Central Norte	33	6	16	11	34
16	All Boys	32	6	15	11	33
17	Acassuso	33	8	8	17	32
18	San Miguel	33	6	14	13	32

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Deportivo Morón	33	51	34	+17	58
2	Deportivo Madryn	33	47	30	+17	53
3	Godoy Cruz	32	42	29	+13	56
4	Colón de Santa Fe	33	39	25	+14	53
5	Ferro Carril Oeste	33	37	28	+9	62
6	Chaco For Ever	33	32	34	-2	40
7	CA Estudiantes	33	31	27	+4	48
8	Racing Córdoba	32	29	39	-10	37
9	Atlético Mitre	33	29	39	-10	36
10	San Telmo	32	28	36	-8	37
11	Ciudad de Bolívar	32	27	28	-1	45
12	Almirante Brown	33	26	22	+4	47
13	San Miguel	33	26	39	-13	32
14	Los Andes	32	25	23	+2	40
15	Defensores de Belgrano	33	25	32	-7	37
16	Acassuso	33	25	35	-10	32
17	Central Norte	33	21	30	-9	34
18	All Boys	32	18	28	-10	33