Drøbak/Frogn vs Sarpsborg 08 II Statistics & Analysis

Drøbak/Frogn

Oct 03, 2026 - 12:00

4 1.35

1 1.25

xG Accuracy: 45%

Sarpsborg 08 II

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 gol) ✖ Errato
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
1X2 Drøbak/Frogn Drøbak/Frogn ✔ Corretto
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-1 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 01:24 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11224386

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Drøbak/Frogn win · Drøbak/Frogn 4–1 Sarpsborg 08 II

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: 3ª Divisione - Girone 6
Fixture: Drøbak/Frogn vs Sarpsborg 08 II
Kickoff: 2026-10-03 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
xG (showing): Drøbak/Frogn 1.35 — Sarpsborg 08 II 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 14, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

3ª Divisione - Girone 6 — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Lillehammer	23	18	2	3	56
2	Elverum	22	14	2	6	44
3	Gjøvik-Lyn	23	13	2	8	41
4	Råde	22	12	4	6	40
5	Drøbak/Frogn	23	11	5	7	38
6	Ørn Horten	23	10	5	8	35
7	Sandefjord II	22	10	3	9	33
8	Oppsal	23	10	3	10	33
9	Lyn II	22	9	4	9	31
10	Raelingen	22	9	4	9	31
11	Sarpsborg 08 II	22	8	4	10	28
12	Fram	23	7	5	11	26
13	Brumunddal	23	3	3	17	12
14	Bjørkelangen	23	1	0	22	3

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Lillehammer	23	84	32	+52	56
2	Råde	22	70	40	+30	40
3	Elverum	22	61	36	+25	44
4	Sandefjord II	22	54	46	+8	33
5	Drøbak/Frogn	23	52	32	+20	38
6	Sarpsborg 08 II	22	50	53	-3	28
7	Lyn II	22	47	47	0	31
8	Ørn Horten	23	44	36	+8	35
9	Gjøvik-Lyn	23	43	21	+22	41
10	Fram	23	43	49	-6	26
11	Oppsal	23	40	37	+3	33
12	Raelingen	22	39	54	-15	31
13	Brumunddal	23	25	92	-67	12
14	Bjørkelangen	23	17	94	-77	3