Bohemians vs Waterford Statistics & Analysis

Bohemians

Oct 16, 2026 - 18:45

2 1.37

1 1.23

xG Accuracy: 79%

Waterford

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 gol) ✖ Errato
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) No Sì ✖ Errato
1X2 Bohemians Bohemians ✔ Corretto
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Corretto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 10, 2026 · 02:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-14560261

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Bohemians win · Bohemians 2–1 Waterford

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Premier Division Irlanda
Fixture: Bohemians vs Waterford
Kickoff: 2026-10-16 18:45:00
1X2 (model): Home 43.5% · Draw 27.8% · Away 28.7%
xG (showing): Bohemians 1.37 — Waterford 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 37.4% · Probability edge: +14.4 pts · Est. EV: +39.9%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Esito: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Premier Division Irlanda — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Shamrock Rovers	33	19	8	6	65
2	St Patrick's Athletic	32	17	8	7	59
3	Bohemians	33	17	8	8	59
4	Shelbourne	33	10	13	10	43
5	Derry City	32	9	14	9	41
6	Dundalk	33	10	11	12	41
7	Galway United	32	9	11	12	38
8	Waterford	32	7	13	12	34
9	Drogheda United	33	8	10	15	34
10	Sligo Rovers	33	5	8	20	23

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Bohemians	33	58	40	+18	59
2	Shamrock Rovers	33	54	33	+21	65
3	St Patrick's Athletic	32	52	25	+27	59
4	Dundalk	33	50	55	-5	41
5	Shelbourne	33	47	46	+1	43
6	Derry City	32	45	42	+3	41
7	Waterford	32	44	54	-10	34
8	Galway United	32	42	48	-6	38
9	Drogheda United	33	39	54	-15	34
10	Sligo Rovers	33	25	59	-34	23

#	SQUADRA	PG	xG	xGC	+/-	PT
1	Waterford	32	14.3	8.4	+5.9	34
2	St Patrick's Athletic	32	15.1	9.4	+5.7	59
3	Derry City	32	12.1	8.7	+3.4	41
4	Shamrock Rovers	33	12.9	9.9	+3.0	65
5	Bohemians	33	13.2	10.7	+2.5	59
6	Dundalk	33	13.0	12.1	+0.9	41
7	Galway United	32	11.4	14.9	-3.5	38
8	Shelbourne	33	9.4	12.9	-3.5	43
9	Drogheda United	33	7.3	13.6	-6.3	34
10	Sligo Rovers	33	8.5	16.7	-8.2	23