Cabeza Buey vs Puebla Calzada Statistics & Analysis

Cabeza Buey

May 10, 2026 - 16:00

1 1.45

0 1.25

xG Accuracy: 63%

Puebla Calzada

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 gol) ✔ Corretto
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) No No ✔ Corretto
1X2 Cabeza Buey Cabeza Buey ✔ Corretto
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 1-0 ✔ Corretto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 00:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1659360

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Cabeza Buey win · Cabeza Buey 1–0 Puebla Calzada

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 14
Fixture: Cabeza Buey vs Puebla Calzada
Kickoff: 2026-05-10 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Cabeza Buey 1.45 — Puebla Calzada 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 58.3% · Over 2.5 41.7%); BTTS No (Yes 47.8% · No 52.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 47.8% · No 52.2%
Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (12.9%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 14 — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Don Benito	34	21	8	5	71
2	Badajoz	34	23	5	6	71
3	Moralo	34	17	11	6	62
4	Azuaga	34	18	8	8	62
5	Jaraíz	34	16	11	7	59
6	Cabeza Buey	34	15	12	7	57
7	Villafranca	34	16	7	11	55
8	Villanovense	34	15	8	11	53
9	Montijo	34	13	7	14	46
10	Jerez	34	8	17	9	41
11	Llerenense	34	11	8	15	41
12	Puebla Calzada	34	9	11	14	38
13	Santa Amalia	34	9	7	18	34
14	Gévora	34	8	9	17	33
15	Atlético Pueblonuevo	34	9	6	19	33
16	Diocesano	34	6	12	16	30
17	Montehermoso	34	5	8	21	23
18	Calamonte	34	3	13	18	22

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Don Benito	34	70	22	+48	71
2	Badajoz	34	64	27	+37	71
3	Jerez	34	56	51	+5	41
4	Moralo	34	54	32	+22	62
5	Azuaga	34	53	31	+22	62
6	Jaraíz	34	53	33	+20	59
7	Cabeza Buey	34	45	29	+16	57
8	Villanovense	34	45	36	+9	53
9	Villafranca	34	45	40	+5	55
10	Montijo	34	43	42	+1	46
11	Llerenense	34	35	44	-9	41
12	Puebla Calzada	34	35	48	-13	38
13	Diocesano	34	33	63	-30	30
14	Gévora	34	32	53	-21	33
15	Santa Amalia	34	30	52	-22	34
16	Atlético Pueblonuevo	34	29	55	-26	33
17	Calamonte	34	25	47	-22	22
18	Montehermoso	34	24	66	-42	23