Bala Azul vs UD Caravaca Statistics & Analysis

Bala Azul

May 09, 2026 - 16:00

2 1.45

4 1.25

xG Accuracy: 40%

UD Caravaca

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 gol) ✖ Errato
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) No Sì ✖ Errato
1X2 Bala Azul UD Caravaca ✖ Errato
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 2-4 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 03:46 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1545833

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result UD Caravaca win · Bala Azul 2–4 UD Caravaca

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 13
Fixture: Bala Azul vs UD Caravaca
Kickoff: 2026-05-10 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Bala Azul 1.45 — UD Caravaca 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 63.6% · Over 2.5 36.4%); BTTS No (Yes 38.6% · No 61.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 38.6% · No 61.4%
Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (14.0%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 07, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Tercera División RFEF - Gruppo 13 — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	Cieza	34	21	10	3	73
2	Real Murcia B	34	17	8	9	59
3	Unión Molinense	34	17	8	9	59
4	Olímpico Totana	34	15	13	6	58
5	Santa Cruz FC	13	6	3	4	21
5	Mazarrón FC	34	14	14	6	55
6	UCAM Murcia II	34	13	16	5	55
7	Águilas II	34	14	10	10	52
8	Santa Cruz	34	15	6	13	51
9	Atlético Pulpileño	34	13	11	10	50
10	SFC Minerva	34	11	11	12	44
11	Bala Azul	34	7	17	10	38
12	Cartagena LU II	34	9	11	14	38
13	Balsicas Atlético	34	9	10	15	36
14	El Palmar	34	8	8	18	32
15	Santomera	34	8	8	18	32
16	UD Caravaca	34	6	13	15	31
17	Muleño	34	6	13	15	31
18	Yeclano II	34	5	9	20	24

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Cieza	34	65	21	+44	73
2	Real Murcia B	34	59	44	+15	59
3	UCAM Murcia II	34	55	37	+18	55
4	Mazarrón FC	34	50	33	+17	55
5	Águilas II	34	47	42	+5	52
6	Unión Molinense	34	46	34	+12	59
7	Olímpico Totana	34	44	27	+17	58
8	Cartagena LU II	34	40	39	+1	38
9	Balsicas Atlético	34	38	46	-8	36
10	Santomera	34	38	64	-26	32
11	Santa Cruz	34	37	34	+3	51
12	Bala Azul	34	36	36	0	38
13	UD Caravaca	34	33	44	-11	31
14	Muleño	34	33	58	-25	31
15	Atlético Pulpileño	34	30	29	+1	50
16	SFC Minerva	34	28	39	-11	44
17	El Palmar	34	27	48	-21	32
18	Yeclano II	34	22	56	-34	24
19	Santa Cruz FC	13	14	10	+4	21