Statistiche / Calcio / Paesi Bassi. Eredivisie Femminile / AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior W

AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior W Statistics & Analysis

AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar
May 22, 2026 - 18:00
1 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 63%
Excelsior W Excelsior W
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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

  • Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 gol) ✖ Errato
  • Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) No No ✔ Corretto
  • 1X2 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar ✔ Corretto
  • Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 2-1, 1-1, 2-2, 1-2, 3-1 1-0 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 13:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3051269

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result AZ Alkmaar win · AZ Alkmaar 1–0 Excelsior W
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Eredivisie Femminile
  • Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior W
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-22 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): AZ Alkmaar 1.45 — Excelsior W 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 30.3% · Over 2.5 69.7%); BTTS No (Yes 43.5% · No 56.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 43.5% · No 56.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (8.9%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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Eredivisie Femminile Eredivisie Femminile — Classifiche
# SQUADRA PG V P S PT
1 PSV Eindhoven Femminile 21 16 3 2 51
2 Ajax Donne 21 14 5 2 47
3 Twente Femminile 21 14 4 3 46
4 Feyenoord Femminile 21 13 5 3 44
5 PEC Zwolle Femminile 21 11 1 9 34
6 Utrecht Femminile 21 10 4 7 34
7 Heerenveen Femminile 21 8 2 11 26
8 AZ Alkmaar 21 5 6 10 21
9 Hera United W 21 5 5 11 20
10 ADO Den Haag Femminile 21 5 4 12 19
11 Excelsior W 21 2 2 17 8
12 NAC Breda W 21 2 1 18 7
# SQUADRA PG GS GC +/- PT
1 PSV Eindhoven Femminile 21 54 14 +40 51
2 Twente Femminile 21 54 17 +37 46
3 Ajax Donne 21 52 17 +35 47
4 Feyenoord Femminile 21 42 17 +25 44
5 Utrecht Femminile 21 39 36 +3 34
6 Heerenveen Femminile 21 37 48 -11 26
7 PEC Zwolle Femminile 21 35 29 +6 34
8 AZ Alkmaar 21 35 46 -11 21
9 Hera United W 21 23 40 -17 20
10 ADO Den Haag Femminile 21 21 45 -24 19
11 Excelsior W 21 18 50 -32 8
12 NAC Breda W 21 17 68 -51 7