DVS '33 Ermelo vs Sparta Nijkerk Statistics & Analysis

DVS '33 Ermelo

May 09, 2026 - 13:00

2 1.45

2 1.25

xG Accuracy: 70%

Sparta Nijkerk

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 gol) ✔ Corretto
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
1X2 DVS '33 Ermelo Pareggio ✖ Errato
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 2-2 ✔ Corretto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1455662

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · DVS '33 Ermelo 2–2 Sparta Nijkerk

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Derde Divisie
Fixture: DVS '33 Ermelo vs Sparta Nijkerk
Kickoff: 2026-05-09 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): DVS '33 Ermelo 1.45 — Sparta Nijkerk 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 35.9% · Over 2.5 64.1%); BTTS Yes (Yes 78.7% · No 21.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 78.7% · No 21.3%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.0%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Derde Divisie — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	ROHDA Raalte	33	20	7	6	67
2	ADO '20	33	17	9	7	60
3	DVS '33 Ermelo	33	16	11	6	59
4	Sparta Nijkerk	33	18	4	11	58
5	SC Genemuiden	33	17	5	11	56
6	Staphorst	33	16	3	14	51
7	Eemdijk	33	14	8	11	50
8	Dovo	33	14	7	12	49
9	Harkemase Boys	33	13	10	10	49
10	VV Scherpenzeel	33	14	6	13	48
11	Sportlust '46	33	14	5	14	47
12	Hoogeveen	33	13	6	14	45
13	Hercules	33	13	4	16	43
14	Huizen	33	11	7	15	40
15	TEC	33	12	3	18	39
16	Excelsior '31	33	11	4	18	37
17	URK	33	9	6	18	33
18	Hsc 21	33	1	3	29	6

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	Sparta Nijkerk	33	81	42	+39	58
2	Eemdijk	33	67	56	+11	50
3	ROHDA Raalte	33	62	34	+28	67
4	Staphorst	33	61	52	+9	51
5	SC Genemuiden	33	60	50	+10	56
6	URK	33	60	94	-34	33
7	DVS '33 Ermelo	33	58	39	+19	59
8	VV Scherpenzeel	33	55	45	+10	48
9	Sportlust '46	33	53	48	+5	47
10	Hercules	33	53	57	-4	43
11	Dovo	33	52	43	+9	49
12	Harkemase Boys	33	52	43	+9	49
13	Hoogeveen	33	52	63	-11	45
14	Huizen	33	51	62	-11	40
15	TEC	33	48	64	-16	39
16	Excelsior '31	33	47	56	-9	37
17	ADO '20	33	46	35	+11	60
18	Hsc 21	33	30	105	-75	6