Statistiche / Calcio / Francia. National 3 - Group E / Pays de Cassel vs Neuilly sur Marne

Pays de Cassel vs Neuilly sur Marne Statistics & Analysis

Pays de Cassel Pays de Cassel
May 16, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 82%
Neuilly sur Marne Neuilly sur Marne
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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

  • Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 gol) ✖ Errato
  • Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
  • 1X2 Pays de Cassel Pareggio ✖ Errato
  • Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 1-0 1-1 ✔ Corretto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 10, 2026 · 13:43 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3543765

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Pays de Cassel 1–1 Neuilly sur Marne
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: National 3 - Group E
  • Fixture: Pays de Cassel vs Neuilly sur Marne
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Pays de Cassel 1.45 — Neuilly sur Marne 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 45.8% · Over 2.5 54.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 56.2% · No 43.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 56.2% · No 43.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.7%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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National 3 - Group E National 3 - Group E — Classifiche
# SQUADRA PG V P S PT
1 Lille II 26 15 3 8 48
2 Croix Football IC 26 14 4 8 46
3 Le Pays du Valois 26 13 7 6 45
4 OCPAM 26 12 5 9 40
5 Vimy 26 11 6 9 39
6 Olympique St Quentin 26 10 7 9 37
7 Drancy 26 10 5 11 35
8 Gazelec FC Ajaccio 26 9 7 10 34
9 Metz II 26 10 3 13 33
10 Balagne 26 9 6 11 33
11 Neuilly sur Marne 26 8 7 11 31
12 Pays de Cassel 26 7 8 11 29
13 Amiens SC II 26 8 5 13 29
14 Reims II 26 5 9 12 20
# SQUADRA PG GS GC +/- PT
1 Lille II 26 56 34 +22 48
2 Le Pays du Valois 26 42 26 +16 45
3 Drancy 26 42 36 +6 35
4 Vimy 26 38 33 +5 39
5 Metz II 26 38 43 -5 33
6 Croix Football IC 26 37 20 +17 46
7 Gazelec FC Ajaccio 26 32 36 -4 34
8 Amiens SC II 26 31 44 -13 29
9 Neuilly sur Marne 26 30 42 -12 31
10 OCPAM 26 29 28 +1 40
11 Pays de Cassel 26 29 44 -15 29
12 Olympique St Quentin 26 28 26 +2 37
13 Balagne 26 27 28 -1 33
14 Reims II 26 21 40 -19 20