Bersenbrück vs Germania Egestorf Statistics & Analysis

Bersenbrück

May 10, 2026 - 13:00

2 1.45

3 1.25

xG Accuracy: 53%

Germania Egestorf

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 gol) ✔ Corretto
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
1X2 draw Germania Egestorf ✖ Errato
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-2, 1-1, 2-2, 2-1, 1-3 2-3 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 17:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1740121

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Germania Egestorf win · Bersenbrück 2–3 Germania Egestorf

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Oberliga - Bassa Sassonia
Fixture: Bersenbrück vs Germania Egestorf
Kickoff: 2026-05-10 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Bersenbrück 1.45 — Germania Egestorf 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 26.1% · Over 2.5 73.9%); BTTS Yes (Yes 73.0% · No 27.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 73.0% · No 27.0%
Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (8.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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