Buchholz vs Paloma Statistics & Analysis

Buchholz

May 09, 2026 - 12:00

4 1.45

0 1.25

xG Accuracy: 35%

Paloma

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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 gol) ✔ Corretto
Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì No ✖ Errato
1X2 Buchholz Buchholz ✔ Corretto
Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-2, 2-2, 1-1, 2-1, 1-3 4-0 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 23:24 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1518770

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Buchholz win · Buchholz 4–0 Paloma

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Oberliga - Amburgo
Fixture: Buchholz vs Paloma
Kickoff: 2026-05-10 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Buchholz 1.45 — Paloma 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 18.5% · Over 2.5 81.5%); BTTS Yes (Yes 81.3% · No 18.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 81.3% · No 18.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-2 (7.1%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Torna alle Statistiche

Oberliga - Amburgo — Classifiche

#	SQUADRA	PG	V	P	S	PT
1	ETSV Hamburg	34	26	5	3	83
2	Eimsbütteler TV	34	24	6	4	78
3	Tus Dassendorf	34	24	4	6	76
4	Victoria Hamburg	34	18	10	6	64
5	Paloma	34	18	7	9	61
6	HT16	34	18	3	13	57
7	Teutonia Ottensen	34	17	1	16	52
8	Süderelbe	34	15	6	13	51
9	Niendorfer TSV	34	14	9	12	50
10	Sasel	34	14	8	12	50
11	Harksheide	34	14	3	17	45
12	Buchholz	34	14	2	18	44
13	HEBC	34	10	8	16	38
14	Vorwärts-Wacker 04	34	11	5	18	38
15	Nikola Tesla	34	11	4	19	37
16	Türkiye	34	7	8	19	29
17	Halstenbek-Rellingen	34	3	3	29	12
18	Curslack-Neuengamme	34	2	2	30	8

#	SQUADRA	PG	GS	GC	+/-	PT
1	ETSV Hamburg	34	126	27	+99	83
2	Tus Dassendorf	34	101	34	+67	76
3	Eimsbütteler TV	34	101	44	+57	78
4	Sasel	34	91	88	+3	50
5	Buchholz	34	87	80	+7	44
6	HT16	34	85	85	0	57
7	Paloma	34	84	50	+34	61
8	Victoria Hamburg	34	83	48	+35	64
9	Niendorfer TSV	34	75	57	+18	50
10	Süderelbe	34	72	64	+8	51
11	Nikola Tesla	34	70	95	-25	37
12	Harksheide	34	65	92	-27	45
13	Vorwärts-Wacker 04	34	62	85	-23	38
14	Türkiye	34	59	106	-47	29
15	Teutonia Ottensen	34	57	66	-9	52
16	HEBC	34	48	66	-18	38
17	Curslack-Neuengamme	34	46	162	-116	8
18	Halstenbek-Rellingen	34	44	107	-63	12