Statistiche / Calcio / Portogallo. Primeira Liga / AVS vs FC Porto

AVS vs FC Porto Statistics & Analysis

AVS AVS
May 10, 2026 - 17:00
3 0.77
1 2.63
xG Accuracy: 35%
FC Porto FC Porto
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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

  • Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 gol) ✔ Corretto
  • Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
  • 1X2 FC Porto AVS ✖ Errato
  • Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 0-2, 0-3, 1-2, 0-1, 1-3 3-1 ✖ Errato

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 22:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3006031

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result AVS win · AVS 3–1 FC Porto
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Primeira Liga
  • Fixture: AVS vs FC Porto
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 7.7% · Draw 16.1% · Away 76.2%
  • xG (showing): AVS 0.77 — FC Porto 2.63 (total xG ≈ 3.4)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 66.0% · Implied: 59.2% · Probability edge: +6.8 pts · Est. EV: +10.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 50.7% · No 49.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-2 (11.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Primeira Liga Primeira Liga — Classifiche
# SQUADRA PG V P S PT
1 FC Porto 34 28 4 2 88
2 Sporting CP 34 25 7 2 82
3 Benfica 34 23 11 0 80
4 SC Braga 34 16 11 7 59
5 Famalicão 34 15 11 8 56
6 Gil Vicente 34 13 11 10 50
7 Moreirense 34 12 7 15 43
8 Arouca 34 12 6 16 42
9 Vitória Guimarães 34 12 6 16 42
10 Estoril 34 10 9 15 39
11 Alverca 34 10 9 15 39
12 Rio Ave 34 8 12 14 36
13 Santa Clara 34 9 9 16 36
14 Nacional 34 9 7 18 34
15 Estrela 34 6 12 16 30
16 Casa Pia 34 6 12 16 30
17 CD Tondela 34 6 10 18 28
18 AVS 34 3 12 19 21
# SQUADRA PG GS GC +/- PT
1 Sporting CP 34 89 24 +65 82
2 Benfica 34 74 25 +49 80
3 FC Porto 34 66 18 +48 88
4 SC Braga 34 64 36 +28 59
5 Estoril 34 54 57 -3 39
6 Gil Vicente 34 47 38 +9 50
7 Arouca 34 47 64 -17 42
8 Famalicão 34 42 29 +13 56
9 Vitória Guimarães 34 39 51 -12 42
10 Estrela 34 38 56 -18 30
11 Nacional 34 37 45 -8 34
12 Moreirense 34 37 49 -12 43
13 Alverca 34 35 52 -17 39
14 Rio Ave 34 35 57 -22 36
15 Santa Clara 34 32 41 -9 36
16 Casa Pia 34 31 57 -26 30
17 CD Tondela 34 27 55 -28 28
18 AVS 34 27 67 -40 21
# SQUADRA PG xG xGC +/- PT
1 Sporting CP 34 69.0 23.9 +45.1 82
2 Benfica 34 68.4 27.3 +41.1 80
3 FC Porto 34 62.1 22.5 +39.6 88
4 SC Braga 34 57.3 37.3 +20.0 59
5 Famalicão 34 45.6 33.7 +11.9 56
6 Gil Vicente 34 44.9 36.8 +8.1 50
7 Santa Clara 34 36.4 35.2 +1.2 36
8 Alverca 34 40.5 40.1 +0.4 39
9 Vitória Guimarães 34 39.3 45.4 -6.1 42
10 CD Tondela 34 36.6 48.7 -12.1 28
11 Estoril 34 42.8 55.2 -12.4 39
12 Nacional 34 37.9 50.6 -12.7 34
13 Estrela 34 40.7 53.6 -12.9 30
14 Rio Ave 34 34.2 52.3 -18.1 36
15 Arouca 34 30.8 49.4 -18.6 42
16 Moreirense 34 31.3 51.7 -20.4 43
17 Casa Pia 34 31.6 54.8 -23.2 30
18 AVS 34 31.9 62.6 -30.7 21