Statistiche / Calcio / Spagna. La Liga / Elche vs Deportivo Alavés

Elche vs Deportivo Alavés Statistics & Analysis

Elche Elche
May 09, 2026 - 12:00
1 1.33
1 1.42
xG Accuracy: 81%
Deportivo Alavés Deportivo Alavés
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Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

  • Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 gol) ✖ Errato
  • Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
  • 1X2 Deportivo Alavés Pareggio ✖ Errato
  • Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Corretto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2989250

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds 2.65
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Elche 1–1 Deportivo Alavés
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 37.7%
  • Historical Bucket: 35–40% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: La Liga
  • Fixture: Elche vs Deportivo Alavés
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.7% · Draw 28.6% · Away 37.7%
  • xG (showing): Elche 1.33 — Deportivo Alavés 1.42 (total xG ≈ 2.75)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 48.1% · Over 2.5 51.8%); BTTS Yes (Yes 57.3% · No 42.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 57.3% · No 42.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.1%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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La Liga La Liga — Classifiche
# SQUADRA PG V P S PT
1 Barcellona 38 31 1 6 94
2 Real Madrid 38 27 5 6 86
3 Villarreal 38 22 6 10 72
4 Atletico Madrid 38 21 6 11 69
5 Real Betis 38 15 15 8 60
6 Celta Vigo 38 14 12 12 54
7 Getafe 38 15 6 17 51
8 Rayo Vallecano 38 12 14 12 50
9 Valencia 38 13 10 15 49
10 Real Sociedad 38 11 13 14 46
11 Espanyol 38 12 10 16 46
12 Athletic Club 38 13 6 19 45
13 Siviglia 38 12 7 19 43
14 Deportivo Alavés 38 11 10 17 43
15 Elche 38 10 13 15 43
16 Levante 38 11 9 18 42
17 Osasuna 38 11 9 18 42
18 Maiorca 38 11 9 18 42
19 Girona 38 9 14 15 41
20 Oviedo 38 6 11 21 29
# SQUADRA PG GS GC +/- PT
1 Barcellona 38 95 36 +59 94
2 Real Madrid 38 77 35 +42 86
3 Villarreal 38 72 46 +26 72
4 Atletico Madrid 38 62 44 +18 69
5 Real Betis 38 59 48 +11 60
6 Real Sociedad 38 59 61 -2 46
7 Celta Vigo 38 53 48 +5 54
8 Elche 38 49 57 -8 43
9 Maiorca 38 47 57 -10 42
10 Levante 38 47 61 -14 42
11 Valencia 38 46 55 -9 49
12 Siviglia 38 46 60 -14 43
13 Osasuna 38 44 50 -6 42
14 Deportivo Alavés 38 44 56 -12 43
15 Espanyol 38 43 55 -12 46
16 Athletic Club 38 43 58 -15 45
17 Rayo Vallecano 38 41 44 -3 50
18 Girona 38 39 55 -16 41
19 Getafe 38 32 38 -6 51
20 Oviedo 38 26 60 -34 29
# SQUADRA PG xG xGC +/- PT
1 Barcellona 38 86.7 45.6 +41.1 94
2 Real Madrid 38 74.8 40.1 +34.7 86
3 Villarreal 38 57.8 45.0 +12.8 72
4 Atletico Madrid 38 58.0 48.5 +9.5 69
5 Real Betis 38 54.7 45.5 +9.2 60
6 Athletic Club 38 50.3 42.1 +8.2 45
7 Valencia 38 49.3 46.3 +3.0 49
8 Rayo Vallecano 38 50.1 48.0 +2.1 50
9 Celta Vigo 38 49.7 49.4 +0.3 54
10 Deportivo Alavés 38 46.1 47.4 -1.3 43
11 Osasuna 38 45.5 49.1 -3.6 42
12 Real Sociedad 38 50.6 55.7 -5.1 46
13 Espanyol 38 48.4 53.8 -5.4 46
14 Levante 38 51.5 59.3 -7.8 42
15 Girona 38 45.6 55.4 -9.8 41
16 Getafe 38 30.2 40.8 -10.6 51
17 Siviglia 38 38.0 54.0 -16.0 43
18 Maiorca 38 43.1 61.9 -18.8 42
19 Elche 38 40.5 60.1 -19.6 43
20 Oviedo 38 34.3 57.3 -23.0 29
La Liga Spagna. La Liga Pronostici