AI correctly predicted the Yate Town win.
The match finished 2–3, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Yate Town Yate Town ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-3 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hanworth Villa | 33.3% | 51.4% | -18.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.9% | +3.7 pp | Aligned |
| Yate Town | 37.1% | 22.7% | +14.3 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Hanworth Villa's win probability at 51.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 18.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Yate Town win 2–3).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Hanworth Villa than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Yate Town higher (55.2% vs model 37.1%, 18.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Yate Town win 2–3).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 14:12 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Hanworth Villa 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Yate Town 37.0%
- xG · Hanworth Villa 1.26 — Yate Town 1.34
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 13:48 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Hanworth Villa 1.76 · Draw 3.49 · Yate Town 3.98
- Implied 1X2 · Hanworth Villa 51.4% · Draw 25.9% · Yate Town 22.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 14:12 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Hanworth Villa 1.76 · Draw 3.49 · Yate Town 3.98
- Implied 1X2 · Hanworth Villa 51.4% · Draw 25.9% · Yate Town 22.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Yate Town win · 2–3
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
54/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (18 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
3/100
Monitoring Confidence
19/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.76
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Yate Town win · Hanworth Villa 2–3 Yate Town
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
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"consensus_odds": 3.98,
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"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
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}
},
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},
"ev_yes": -0.0898,
"ev_yes_display": {
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"raw_pct": -9.0,
"text": "-9.0%"
},
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"id": "btts",
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"no_prob": 45.5,
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"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "no",
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},
{
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"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -3.8%",
"alert_team": "Yate Town",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 18.1,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -18.06,
"hero_label": "Hanworth Villa",
"market_prob_pct": 22.7,
"market_team": "Hanworth Villa",
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"model_team": "Yate Town",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 13,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.1,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Yate Town), but pricing still diverges by 18.1 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.1,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Yate Town), but pricing still diverges by 18.1 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4747,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 44,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Yate Town at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Yate Town as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Yate Town",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Yate Town \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.85 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +47% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1597338 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.85 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "44 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Yate Town), but pricing still diverges by 18.1 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +47% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market favour the same side (Yate Town), but pricing still diverges by 18.1 pp.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0385,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.98,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2272,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.25125628140703515,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4746,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+47.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "1/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.14285714285714285,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (18 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 16.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.4,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 55,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 18.06,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 18.06,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.34,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.26,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.34,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.26 \u00b7 Away xG 1.34 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.8,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -3.8%",
"steam_team": "Yate Town",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market favour the same side (Yate Town), but pricing still diverges by 18.1 pp.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.1,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Yate Town), but pricing still diverges by 18.1 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.1,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Yate Town), but pricing still diverges by 18.1 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4747,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 44,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Yate Town at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Yate Town as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Yate Town",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Yate Town \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.85 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +47% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1597338 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.85 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "44 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Yate Town), but pricing still diverges by 18.1 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +47% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market favour the same side (Yate Town), but pricing still diverges by 18.1 pp.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0385,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.98,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2272,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.25125628140703515,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4746,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+47.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Model and market favour the same side (Yate Town), but pricing still diverges by 18.1 pp.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Hanworth Villa 1.26 xG vs Yate Town 1.34 \u2192 Yate Town 37.1%",
"Market: Hanworth Villa ~22.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Yate Town \u2193 -3.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Yate Town, but market pricing diverges by 18 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -18.06,
"fair_prob": 33.31,
"label": "Hanworth Villa",
"market_prob": 51.37,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.72,
"fair_prob": 29.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.91,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.34,
"fair_prob": 37.06,
"label": "Yate Town",
"market_prob": 22.72,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.15,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.35,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.15,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.65,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.35,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 54.85,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.35,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 45.15,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -18.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Hanworth Villa",
"market_prob_pct": 51.37,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Yate Town"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Hanworth Villa\u0027s win probability at 51.4%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 18.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 18.06,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Yate Town",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 22.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+14.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 14.4,
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+14.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 55,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Yate Town \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Hanworth Villa 1.26 xG vs Yate Town 1.34 \u2192 Yate Town 37.1%",
"Market: Hanworth Villa ~22.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Yate Town \u2193 -3.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Yate Town, but market pricing diverges by 18 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -18.06,
"hero_label": "Hanworth Villa",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Yate Town odds shortened \u2193 -3.8%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Yate Town, with odds shortening by 3.8%. Confirmation remains limited (1/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Hanworth Villa than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Hanworth Villa than the current fair estimate.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Yate Town, with odds shortening by 3.8%. Confirmation remains limited (1/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Hanworth Villa more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Yate Town has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 3.8%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/7), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 18.06,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.8,
"max_prob_pct": 37.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Hanworth Villa",
"largest_gap_pp": -18.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices Hanworth Villa higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 18.1,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -18.06,
"edge_pp": -18.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Hanworth Villa",
"market_prob_pct": 51.37,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.72,
"edge_pp": 3.72,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.91,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 14.34,
"edge_pp": 14.34,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Yate Town",
"market_prob_pct": 22.72,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Hanworth Villa (22.7%).",
"Yate Town has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -3.8%, 1/7).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Yate Town, Market \u2192 Hanworth Villa, Recent sharp money \u2192 Yate Town.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 56.82,
"closing_odds": 1.76,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 56.82,
"entry_odds": 1.76,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.8
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "1/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.75,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Sharpest sharp-led move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 12h 2m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Yate Town (swing 4.23 \u2192 3.75 \u2192 3.75) \u2014 net 3.8% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.98",
"3.87",
"3.75"
],
"display": "4.23 \u2192 3.75 \u2192 3.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 12h 2m",
"pick_team": "Yate Town",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.23"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.9,
3.98,
3.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,6.3 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.90"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.75"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.98"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.9,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Yate Town",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.75,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.8%",
"open_odds": 3.9,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Yate Town",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 13,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/7",
"current_odds": 3.75,
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.8%",
"open_odds": 3.9,
"pick_team": "Yate Town",
"steam_score": 13,
"steam_team_name": "Yate Town",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 18.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "yate-town",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 1,
"away_team_display_name": "Yate Town",
"away_team_id": 7762,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/7762.webp",
"away_team_name": "Yate Town",
"away_team_public_id": "184hrNQOwh5FKe",
"away_team_slug": "yate-town",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1597338,
"goals_away": 1,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Hanworth Villa",
"home_team_id": 8811,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/8811.webp",
"home_team_name": "Hanworth Villa",
"home_team_public_id": "3NTKHip12CT7Rr",
"home_team_slug": "hanworth-villa",
"ht.home_team_slug": "hanworth-villa",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "Perdana Bukan Liga - Selatan Selatan",
"league_id": 60,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/60.webp",
"league_name": "Perdana Bukan Liga - Selatan Selatan",
"league_public_id": "4cMIwTdSTRAPR7",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 14:00:00",
"public_id": "42IODkBGqp1yN2",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2355,
"best_odd": 3.98,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0338,
"ev": 0.0385,
"implied_prob": 0.2272,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2272,
"draw": 0.2591,
"home": 0.5137
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"p_final": 0.2609
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2834,
"best_odd": 3.49,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": -0.0593,
"implied_prob": 0.2591,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2272,
"draw": 0.2591,
"home": 0.5137
},
"model_prob": 0.296,
"p_final": 0.2695
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4378,
"best_odd": 1.76,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0789,
"ev": -0.2347,
"implied_prob": 0.5137,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2272,
"draw": 0.2591,
"home": 0.5137
},
"model_prob": 0.3335,
"p_final": 0.4348
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.98,
"edge": 0.1193,
"ev": 0.4747,
"implied_prob": 0.2513,
"model_prob": 0.3705
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.49,
"edge": 0.0095,
"ev": 0.033,
"implied_prob": 0.2865,
"model_prob": 0.296
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.76,
"edge": -0.2347,
"ev": -0.4131,
"implied_prob": 0.5682,
"model_prob": 0.3335
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2238,
"alpha_yes": 0.2461,
"best_no_odd": 2.05,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0035,
"edge_yes": -0.0035,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0673,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0821,
"ev_yes": -0.0898,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0853,
"implied_no": 0.4515,
"implied_yes": 0.5485,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2238,
"best_odd": 2.03,
"edge": 0.0008,
"ev": -0.0821,
"implied_prob": 0.4514,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4522
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2461,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0009,
"ev": -0.0853,
"implied_prob": 0.5486,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5478
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.4522,
"p_final_yes": 0.5478,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2288,
"alpha_under": 0.208,
"best_over_odd": 1.75,
"best_under_odd": 2.05,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.73,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.97,
"edge_over": -0.0515,
"edge_under": 0.0515,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1565,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0989,
"ev_under": 0.0619,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0582,
"implied_over": 0.5335,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5324,
"implied_under": 0.4665,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4676,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2288,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0115,
"ev": -0.0989,
"implied_prob": 0.5324,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5209
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.208,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": -0.0582,
"implied_prob": 0.4676,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4781
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5209,
"p_final_under": 0.4781,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4747,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0619,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.1,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Yate Town), but pricing still diverges by 18.1 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4747,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 44,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Yate Town at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Yate Town as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Yate Town",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Yate Town \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.85 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +47% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1597338 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.85 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "44 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Yate Town), but pricing still diverges by 18.1 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.6/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +47% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market favour the same side (Yate Town), but pricing still diverges by 18.1 pp.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0385,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.98,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2272,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.25125628140703515,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4746,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+47.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.296,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3705,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.98,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0338,
"ev": 0.0385,
"implied_prob": 0.2272,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Yate Town"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2238,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.03,
"edge": 0.0008,
"market_prob": 0.4514,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2238,
"best_odd": 2.03,
"edge": 0.0008,
"ev": -0.0821,
"implied_prob": 0.4514,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4522
},
"p_final": 0.4522,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0821,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2461,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0009,
"ev": -0.0853,
"implied_prob": 0.5486,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5478
}
},
"edge": 0.0035,
"ev": -0.0673,
"implied_prob": 0.4515,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.208,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0105,
"market_prob": 0.4676,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2288,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0115,
"ev": -0.0989,
"implied_prob": 0.5324,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5209
},
"p_final": 0.4781,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0582,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.208,
"best_odd": 1.97,
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": -0.0582,
"implied_prob": 0.4676,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4781
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0515,
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4665,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1597338,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0619,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3705,
"draw": 0.296,
"home": 0.3335
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Yate Town",
"home": "Hanworth Villa"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.022445,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4665,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0385,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.98,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2272,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.25125628140703515,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4746,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+47.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1597338,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T14:12:53.003147+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Hanworth Villa & Yate Town!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Perdana Bukan Liga - Selatan Selatan — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plymouth Parkway | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 2 | Uxbridge | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 3 | Hanworth Villa | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 4 | Chertsey Town | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 5 | Bath City | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Frome Town | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Chichester City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Berkhamsted | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 9 | Taunton Town | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 10 | Poole Town | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 11 | Gosport Borough | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 12 | Yate Town | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 13 | Evesham United | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 14 | Bracknell Town | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 15 | Wimborne Town | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 16 | Basingstoke Town | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 17 | Sholing | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 18 | Chippenham Town | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 19 | Hanwell Town | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 20 | Gloucester City | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 21 | Malvern Town | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 22 | Havant & Waterlooville | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plymouth Parkway | 8 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 19 |
| 2 | Taunton Town | 8 | 21 | 20 | +1 | 12 |
| 3 | Chertsey Town | 8 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 14 |
| 4 | Uxbridge | 8 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 17 |
| 5 | Hanworth Villa | 8 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 16 |
| 6 | Chichester City | 8 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 13 |
| 7 | Basingstoke Town | 8 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 | Frome Town | 8 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 13 |
| 9 | Malvern Town | 8 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 5 |
| 10 | Bath City | 8 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 14 |
| 11 | Gosport Borough | 8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 11 |
| 12 | Berkhamsted | 9 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 13 |
| 13 | Evesham United | 7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Gloucester City | 8 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 6 |
| 15 | Yate Town | 7 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 11 |
| 16 | Bracknell Town | 8 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 10 |
| 17 | Poole Town | 7 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 12 |
| 18 | Havant & Waterlooville | 8 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 4 |
| 19 | Sholing | 7 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 7 |
| 20 | Chippenham Town | 7 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 7 |
| 21 | Wimborne Town | 7 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 9 |
| 22 | Hanwell Town | 7 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 |
