The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Havant & Waterlooville at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Havant & Waterlooville Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Havant & Waterlooville | 37.5% | 40.7% | -3.1 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.3% | +3.3 pp | Aligned |
| Hanwell Town | 32.9% | 33.0% | -0.2 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Havant & Waterlooville; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 18:49 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Havant & Waterlooville 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Hanwell Town 32.9%
- xG · Havant & Waterlooville 1.35 — Hanwell Town 1.25
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 18:18 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Havant & Waterlooville 2.25 · Draw 3.48 · Hanwell Town 2.77
- Implied 1X2 · Havant & Waterlooville 40.7% · Draw 26.3% · Hanwell Town 33.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 18:49 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Havant & Waterlooville 2.25 · Draw 3.48 · Hanwell Town 2.77
- Implied 1X2 · Havant & Waterlooville 40.7% · Draw 26.3% · Hanwell Town 33.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
83/100
Betting Confidence
80/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.48
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Havant & Waterlooville 1–1 Hanwell Town
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
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},
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},
{
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"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1149,
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"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.5,
"text": "-11.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4067,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0525,
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"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.2,
"text": "-5.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1547,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.5%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Havant \u0026 Waterlooville",
"sort_key": 1786.875,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "3/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "3/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 3.3,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 3.31,
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"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"model_team": "Havant \u0026 Waterlooville",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 14,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
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"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Havant \u0026 Waterlooville)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Havant \u0026 Waterlooville)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Havant \u0026 Waterlooville at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Havant \u0026 Waterlooville as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Havant \u0026 Waterlooville",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Havant \u0026 Waterlooville).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1149,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4067,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4444444444444444,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1547,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "3/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.375,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 3.8,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 81,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.31,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.31,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.25,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.35,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.35 \u00b7 Away xG 1.25 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.9,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Havant \u0026 Waterlooville).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Havant \u0026 Waterlooville)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Havant \u0026 Waterlooville)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Havant \u0026 Waterlooville at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Havant \u0026 Waterlooville as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Havant \u0026 Waterlooville",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Havant \u0026 Waterlooville).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1149,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4067,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4444444444444444,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1547,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Havant \u0026 Waterlooville 1.35 xG vs Hanwell Town 1.25 \u2192 Havant \u0026 Waterlooville 37.5%",
"Market: Havant \u0026 Waterlooville ~40.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +2.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Havant \u0026 Waterlooville with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -3.13,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "Havant \u0026 Waterlooville",
"market_prob": 40.67,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.31,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.3,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.19,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "Hanwell Town",
"market_prob": 33.04,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.81,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.01,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.81,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.99,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.23,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.73,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.23,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.27,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 3.31,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.3,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.31,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Havant \u0026 Waterlooville",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 40.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-3.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -3.2,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-3.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -3.2,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 81,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Havant \u0026 Waterlooville \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 85,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Havant \u0026 Waterlooville 1.35 xG vs Hanwell Town 1.25 \u2192 Havant \u0026 Waterlooville 37.5%",
"Market: Havant \u0026 Waterlooville ~40.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +2.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Havant \u0026 Waterlooville with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 3.31,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +2.9%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (3/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Confirmation remains limited (3/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on Draw (\u2191 +2.9%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (3/8), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.31,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 3.3,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.3,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -3.13,
"edge_pp": -3.13,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Havant \u0026 Waterlooville",
"market_prob_pct": 40.67,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.31,
"edge_pp": 3.31,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.3,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.19,
"edge_pp": -0.19,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Hanwell Town",
"market_prob_pct": 33.04,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Havant \u0026 Waterlooville (40.7%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +2.9%, 3/8) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Havant \u0026 Waterlooville \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 28.74,
"closing_odds": 3.48,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 28.74,
"entry_odds": 3.48,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.9
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "3/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.6,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 2.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 54m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 4.01 \u2192 3.10 \u2192 3.60) \u2014 net 2.9% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.60",
"3.54",
"3.48"
],
"display": "4.01 \u2192 3.10 \u2192 3.60",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 54m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.01"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.60"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.5,
3.48,
3.6
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,15.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "flat",
"sparkline_trend_label": "Stable",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.48"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.60"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.5,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.6,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"open_odds": 3.5,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 14,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/8",
"current_odds": 3.6,
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"open_odds": 3.5,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 14,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "hanwell-town",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Hanwell Town",
"away_team_id": 7645,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/7645.webp",
"away_team_name": "Hanwell Town",
"away_team_public_id": "1gETcHEXzm7xcR",
"away_team_slug": "hanwell-town",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1597360,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Havant \u0026 Waterlooville",
"home_team_id": 1843,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1843.webp",
"home_team_name": "Havant \u0026 Waterlooville",
"home_team_public_id": "40npbopE5BRjDM",
"home_team_slug": "havant-wville",
"ht.home_team_slug": "havant-wville",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "Perdana Bukan Liga - Selatan Selatan",
"league_id": 60,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/60.webp",
"league_name": "Perdana Bukan Liga - Selatan Selatan",
"league_public_id": "4cMIwTdSTRAPR7",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-29 18:45:00",
"public_id": "45Dib6KZoDF47R",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4489,
"best_odd": 2.77,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0007,
"ev": -0.087,
"implied_prob": 0.3304,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3304,
"draw": 0.263,
"home": 0.4067
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.3296
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2853,
"best_odd": 3.48,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0093,
"ev": -0.0525,
"implied_prob": 0.263,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3304,
"draw": 0.263,
"home": 0.4067
},
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.2723
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.429,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0133,
"ev": -0.1149,
"implied_prob": 0.4067,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3304,
"draw": 0.263,
"home": 0.4067
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.3934
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.77,
"edge": -0.0323,
"ev": -0.0895,
"implied_prob": 0.361,
"model_prob": 0.3287
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.48,
"edge": 0.0083,
"ev": 0.0288,
"implied_prob": 0.2874,
"model_prob": 0.2956
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": -0.0688,
"ev": -0.1548,
"implied_prob": 0.4444,
"model_prob": 0.3757
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1598,
"alpha_yes": 0.2198,
"best_no_odd": 2.45,
"best_yes_odd": 1.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0723,
"edge_yes": -0.0723,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1148,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0605,
"ev_yes": -0.1825,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1132,
"implied_no": 0.3827,
"implied_yes": 0.6173,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1598,
"best_odd": 2.395,
"edge": 0.0119,
"ev": -0.0605,
"implied_prob": 0.3803,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3923
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2198,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0164,
"ev": -0.1132,
"implied_prob": 0.6197,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6033
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.3923,
"p_final_yes": 0.6033,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2109,
"alpha_under": 0.1534,
"best_over_odd": 1.65,
"best_under_odd": 2.3,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.59,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.2,
"edge_over": -0.0981,
"edge_under": 0.0981,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2047,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1101,
"ev_under": 0.1914,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0438,
"implied_over": 0.5801,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5805,
"implied_under": 0.4199,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4195,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2109,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0208,
"ev": -0.1101,
"implied_prob": 0.5805,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5597
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1534,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0151,
"ev": -0.0438,
"implied_prob": 0.4195,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4346
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5597,
"p_final_under": 0.4346,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1914,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.8
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Havant \u0026 Waterlooville)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1914,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1914,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 85,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Havant \u0026 Waterlooville at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Havant \u0026 Waterlooville as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Havant \u0026 Waterlooville",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Havant \u0026 Waterlooville).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 81,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1149,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4067,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4444444444444444,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1547,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0133,
"ev": -0.1149,
"implied_prob": 0.4067,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Havant \u0026 Waterlooville"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1598,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.395,
"edge": 0.0119,
"market_prob": 0.3803,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1598,
"best_odd": 2.395,
"edge": 0.0119,
"ev": -0.0605,
"implied_prob": 0.3803,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3923
},
"p_final": 0.3923,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0605,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2198,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0164,
"ev": -0.1132,
"implied_prob": 0.6197,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6033
}
},
"edge": 0.0723,
"ev": 0.1148,
"implied_prob": 0.3827,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1534,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0151,
"market_prob": 0.4195,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2109,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0208,
"ev": -0.1101,
"implied_prob": 0.5805,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5597
},
"p_final": 0.4346,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0438,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1534,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0151,
"ev": -0.0438,
"implied_prob": 0.4195,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4346
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0981,
"ev": 0.1914,
"implied_prob": 0.4199,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1597360,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1914,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3287,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3757
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1148,
"implied_prob": 0.3827,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1148,
"implied_prob": 0.3827,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Hanwell Town",
"home": "Havant \u0026 Waterlooville"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.069402,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1914,
"implied_prob": 0.4199,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1149,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4067,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4444444444444444,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1547,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1597360,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-29T18:49:46.549756+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Havant & Waterlooville & Hanwell Town!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Perdana Bukan Liga - Selatan Selatan — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plymouth Parkway | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 2 | Uxbridge | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 3 | Hanworth Villa | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 4 | Chertsey Town | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 5 | Bath City | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Frome Town | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Chichester City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Berkhamsted | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 9 | Taunton Town | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 10 | Poole Town | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 11 | Gosport Borough | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 12 | Yate Town | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 13 | Evesham United | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 14 | Bracknell Town | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 15 | Wimborne Town | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 16 | Basingstoke Town | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 17 | Sholing | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 18 | Chippenham Town | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 19 | Hanwell Town | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 20 | Gloucester City | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 21 | Malvern Town | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 22 | Havant & Waterlooville | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plymouth Parkway | 8 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 19 |
| 2 | Taunton Town | 8 | 21 | 20 | +1 | 12 |
| 3 | Chertsey Town | 8 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 14 |
| 4 | Uxbridge | 8 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 17 |
| 5 | Hanworth Villa | 8 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 16 |
| 6 | Chichester City | 8 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 13 |
| 7 | Basingstoke Town | 8 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 | Frome Town | 8 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 13 |
| 9 | Malvern Town | 8 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 5 |
| 10 | Bath City | 8 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 14 |
| 11 | Gosport Borough | 8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 11 |
| 12 | Berkhamsted | 9 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 13 |
| 13 | Evesham United | 7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Gloucester City | 8 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 6 |
| 15 | Yate Town | 7 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 11 |
| 16 | Bracknell Town | 8 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 10 |
| 17 | Poole Town | 7 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 12 |
| 18 | Havant & Waterlooville | 8 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 4 |
| 19 | Sholing | 7 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 7 |
| 20 | Chippenham Town | 7 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 7 |
| 21 | Wimborne Town | 7 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 9 |
| 22 | Hanwell Town | 7 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 |
