The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Gloucester City at 39.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Gloucester City Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gloucester City | 39.9% | 40.9% | -1.0 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.5% | 27.0% | +2.5 pp | Aligned |
| Plymouth Parkway | 30.6% | 32.1% | -1.5 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Gloucester City; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 18:49 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Gloucester City 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Plymouth Parkway 30.6%
- xG · Gloucester City 1.40 — Plymouth Parkway 1.20
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 18:18 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Gloucester City 2.21 · Draw 3.35 · Plymouth Parkway 2.82
- Implied 1X2 · Gloucester City 40.9% · Draw 27.0% · Plymouth Parkway 32.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 18:49 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Gloucester City 2.21 · Draw 3.35 · Plymouth Parkway 2.82
- Implied 1X2 · Gloucester City 40.9% · Draw 27.0% · Plymouth Parkway 32.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
78/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
87/100
Betting Confidence
81/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.35
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Gloucester City 1–1 Plymouth Parkway
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "eec9a802e93a313ce522a59a07564252777cde4e5371adbe9b45d13b0853458d",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.2,
"away_win_prob": 0.3058,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.457,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2948,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.27,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.5,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.4,
"home_win_prob": 0.3994,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Plymouth Parkway",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Plymouth Parkway"
},
"away_xg": 1.2,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Gloucester City",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0096,
"edge_gap": 0.0941,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4093,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 30.6,
"draw": 29.5,
"home": 40.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.21
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.21,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Gloucester City Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.44,
"market_odds": 2.21,
"model_odds": 2.5,
"overround": 10.6,
"prob_edge": -5.2,
"value_pct": -11.6,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 3,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 8,
"away_score_rate": 69.9,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 8,
"home_score_rate": 75.3,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.2,
"home_expected": 1.4,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.5
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Gloucester City or Draw",
"prob": 69.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Gloucester City or Plymouth Parkway",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Plymouth Parkway",
"prob": 60.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Gloucester City or Plymouth Parkway",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 30.6,
"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 39.9,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Gloucester City"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.8,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.4,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": -11.6,
"implied_prob": 45.2,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Gloucester City Win",
"model_prob": 40.0,
"odds": 2.21
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Plymouth Parkway",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 32.07,
"draw": 27.0,
"home": 40.93
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-29 18:49:32",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-29 18:18:38",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Gloucester City",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.93,
"gap_pp": -0.96,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 39.97
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.0,
"gap_pp": 2.48,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.48
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.07,
"gap_pp": -1.52,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 30.56
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 60.82,
"gap_pp": -12.62,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 39.18,
"gap_pp": 12.62,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.21,
"early": 2.21,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.93,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.93,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.35,
"early": 3.35,
"implied_closing_pct": 27.0,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 27.0,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.82,
"early": 2.82,
"implied_closing_pct": 32.07,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 32.07,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.52,
"early": 1.52,
"implied_closing_pct": 60.82,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 60.82,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.36,
"early": 2.36,
"implied_closing_pct": 39.18,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 39.18,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 12.6,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 1.4,
"ev": 0.125,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 9.0,
"market_prob": 0.1111,
"market_prob_pct": 11.1,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.4
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.5
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.4,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1473,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.31,
"edge": 0.0178,
"edge_pp": 1.8,
"market_prob": 0.3969,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2025,
"best_odd": 1.52,
"edge": -0.0245,
"ev": -0.1205,
"implied_prob": 0.6031,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5786
},
"p_final": 0.4147,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1966,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.042,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1473,
"best_odd": 2.31,
"edge": 0.0178,
"ev": -0.042,
"implied_prob": 0.3969,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4147
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2384,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -23.8,
"text": "-23.8%"
},
"ev_under": 0.2225,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 22.2,
"text": "+22.2%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2225,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10350.25,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1551,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0143,
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"market_prob": 0.3647,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1551,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0143,
"ev": -0.0525,
"implied_prob": 0.3647,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.379
},
"p_final": 0.379,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1425,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0525,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2132,
"best_odd": 1.435,
"edge": -0.0197,
"ev": -0.1166,
"implied_prob": 0.6353,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.6156
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1699,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 17.0,
"text": "+17.0%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2127,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.3,
"text": "-21.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1699,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"sort_key": 10152.91,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Gloucester City, but the model still strongly favours Gloucester City.",
"consensus_odds": 2.21,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1049,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.5,
"text": "-10.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4093,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0716,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.2,
"text": "-7.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.0,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1167,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Gloucester City",
"sort_key": 1782.1,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +2.5%",
"alert_team": "Gloucester City",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 2.5,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 2.48,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 40.9,
"market_team": "Gloucester City",
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"model_team": "Gloucester City",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 37,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Gloucester City, but the model still strongly favours Gloucester City."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Gloucester City, but the model still strongly favours Gloucester City."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2225,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2225,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Gloucester City at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Gloucester City as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Gloucester City, but the model still strongly favours Gloucester City.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Gloucester City",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +22.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Gloucester City, but the model still strongly favours Gloucester City.",
"Decision strength: 3.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Gloucester City, but the model still strongly favours Gloucester City.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1049,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.21,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4093,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.45248868778280543,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1167,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "7/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.875,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.8,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 82,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 2.48,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 2.48,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.2,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.4,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.4,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.40 \u00b7 Away xG 1.20 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.5,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +2.5%",
"steam_team": "Gloucester City",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Gloucester City, but the model still strongly favours Gloucester City.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Gloucester City, but the model still strongly favours Gloucester City."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Gloucester City, but the model still strongly favours Gloucester City."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2225,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2225,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Gloucester City at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Gloucester City as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Gloucester City, but the model still strongly favours Gloucester City.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Gloucester City",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +22.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Gloucester City, but the model still strongly favours Gloucester City.",
"Decision strength: 3.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Gloucester City, but the model still strongly favours Gloucester City.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1049,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.21,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4093,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.45248868778280543,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1167,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Gloucester City, but the model still strongly favours Gloucester City.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Gloucester City 1.40 xG vs Plymouth Parkway 1.20 \u2192 Gloucester City 39.9%",
"Market: Gloucester City ~40.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Gloucester City odds \u2191 +2.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Gloucester City, but the market has moved away from Gloucester City.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -0.99,
"fair_prob": 39.94,
"label": "Gloucester City",
"market_prob": 40.93,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.48,
"fair_prob": 29.48,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.0,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.49,
"fair_prob": 30.58,
"label": "Plymouth Parkway",
"market_prob": 32.07,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.83,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.03,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.83,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.97,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.15,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 63.45,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.15,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 36.55,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 2.48,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.48,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.0,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Gloucester City"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.48,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Gloucester City",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 40.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-1.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -1.0,
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-1.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -1.0,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 82,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Gloucester City, but the model still strongly favours Gloucester City. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Gloucester City 1.40 xG vs Plymouth Parkway 1.20 \u2192 Gloucester City 39.9%",
"Market: Gloucester City ~40.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Gloucester City odds \u2191 +2.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Gloucester City, but the market has moved away from Gloucester City.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 2.48,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Gloucester City odds lengthened \u2191 +2.5%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Gloucester City has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 2.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Gloucester City \u2014 odds lengthened by 2.5% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Gloucester City has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 2.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Gloucester City \u2014 odds lengthened by 2.5% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Gloucester City has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 2.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/8) supports the current market view on Gloucester City."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 2.48,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 9.4 pp (at 39.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 9.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 2.5,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.5,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -0.99,
"edge_pp": -0.99,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.94,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Gloucester City",
"market_prob_pct": 40.93,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.48,
"edge_pp": 2.48,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.48,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.0,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.49,
"edge_pp": -1.49,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.58,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Plymouth Parkway",
"market_prob_pct": 32.07,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Gloucester City \u2014 odds lengthened by 2.5% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Gloucester City (40.9%).",
"Gloucester City odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +2.5%, 7/8) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Gloucester City, Market \u2192 Gloucester City, while Gloucester City odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 29.85,
"closing_odds": 3.35,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 29.85,
"entry_odds": 3.35,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.5
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.05,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 2.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 54m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Market fading Gloucester City (2.5%) \u2014 line drifting longer vs. open (7/8).",
"Modest lengthening \u2014 treat as drift tracking rather than steam."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.21",
"2.10",
"2.00"
],
"display": "2.31 \u2192 1.95 \u2192 2.05",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 54m",
"pick_team": "Gloucester City",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.31"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.95"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.05"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.0,
2.21,
2.05
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,13.7",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.21"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.05"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.0,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Efficient",
"phase_tip": "Stable consensus \u2014 limited edge from further drift.",
"pick_team": "Gloucester City",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.05,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.5%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"summary": "Market moved away from Gloucester City while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Gloucester City",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_fading",
"signal_label": "Weakening",
"steam_score": 37,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"current_odds": 2.05,
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.5%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"pick_team": "Gloucester City",
"steam_score": 37,
"steam_team_name": "Gloucester City",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 2.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "plymouth-parkway",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Plymouth Parkway",
"away_team_id": 8899,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/8899.webp",
"away_team_name": "Plymouth Parkway",
"away_team_public_id": "5CKsD5Ek2S7hFx",
"away_team_slug": "plymouth-parkway",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1597358,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Gloucester City",
"home_team_id": 8653,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/8653.webp",
"home_team_name": "Gloucester City",
"home_team_public_id": "4Uwkcb7XqlQx3D",
"home_team_slug": "gloucester-city",
"ht.home_team_slug": "gloucester-city",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "Perdana Bukan Liga - Selatan Selatan",
"league_id": 60,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/60.webp",
"league_name": "Perdana Bukan Liga - Selatan Selatan",
"league_public_id": "4cMIwTdSTRAPR7",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-29 18:45:00",
"public_id": "0bnft8ASCnXLxF",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4398,
"best_odd": 2.82,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0067,
"ev": -0.1143,
"implied_prob": 0.3207,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3207,
"draw": 0.27,
"home": 0.4093
},
"model_prob": 0.3056,
"p_final": 0.3141
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2889,
"best_odd": 3.35,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0072,
"ev": -0.0716,
"implied_prob": 0.27,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3207,
"draw": 0.27,
"home": 0.4093
},
"model_prob": 0.2948,
"p_final": 0.2771
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4435,
"best_odd": 2.21,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0043,
"ev": -0.1049,
"implied_prob": 0.4093,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3207,
"draw": 0.27,
"home": 0.4093
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"p_final": 0.405
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.82,
"edge": -0.049,
"ev": -0.1383,
"implied_prob": 0.3546,
"model_prob": 0.3056
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.35,
"edge": -0.0038,
"ev": -0.0126,
"implied_prob": 0.2985,
"model_prob": 0.2948
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.21,
"edge": -0.0528,
"ev": -0.1167,
"implied_prob": 0.4525,
"model_prob": 0.3997
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1551,
"alpha_yes": 0.2132,
"best_no_odd": 2.56,
"best_yes_odd": 1.45,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0915,
"edge_yes": -0.0915,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1699,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0525,
"ev_yes": -0.2127,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1166,
"implied_no": 0.3655,
"implied_yes": 0.6345,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1551,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0143,
"ev": -0.0525,
"implied_prob": 0.3647,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.379
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2132,
"best_odd": 1.435,
"edge": -0.0197,
"ev": -0.1166,
"implied_prob": 0.6353,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.6156
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.379,
"p_final_yes": 0.6156,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2025,
"alpha_under": 0.1473,
"best_over_odd": 1.58,
"best_under_odd": 2.36,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.52,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.31,
"edge_over": -0.1183,
"edge_under": 0.1183,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2384,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1205,
"ev_under": 0.2225,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.042,
"implied_over": 0.6003,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6031,
"implied_under": 0.3997,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3969,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2025,
"best_odd": 1.52,
"edge": -0.0245,
"ev": -0.1205,
"implied_prob": 0.6031,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5786
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1473,
"best_odd": 2.31,
"edge": 0.0178,
"ev": -0.042,
"implied_prob": 0.3969,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4147
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5786,
"p_final_under": 0.4147,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2225,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2225,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2225,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Gloucester City, but the model still strongly favours Gloucester City."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2225,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2225,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Gloucester City at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Gloucester City as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Gloucester City, but the model still strongly favours Gloucester City.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Gloucester City",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +22.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Gloucester City, but the model still strongly favours Gloucester City.",
"Decision strength: 3.8/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Gloucester City, but the model still strongly favours Gloucester City.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1049,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.21,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4093,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.45248868778280543,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1167,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2948,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3997,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.21,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0043,
"ev": -0.1049,
"implied_prob": 0.4093,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Gloucester City"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1551,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0143,
"market_prob": 0.3647,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1551,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0143,
"ev": -0.0525,
"implied_prob": 0.3647,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.379
},
"p_final": 0.379,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0525,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2132,
"best_odd": 1.435,
"edge": -0.0197,
"ev": -0.1166,
"implied_prob": 0.6353,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.6156
}
},
"edge": 0.0915,
"ev": 0.1699,
"implied_prob": 0.3655,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1473,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.31,
"edge": 0.0178,
"market_prob": 0.3969,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2025,
"best_odd": 1.52,
"edge": -0.0245,
"ev": -0.1205,
"implied_prob": 0.6031,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5786
},
"p_final": 0.4147,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.042,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1473,
"best_odd": 2.31,
"edge": 0.0178,
"ev": -0.042,
"implied_prob": 0.3969,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4147
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1183,
"ev": 0.2225,
"implied_prob": 0.3997,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1597358,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2225,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3056,
"draw": 0.2948,
"home": 0.3997
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1699,
"implied_prob": 0.3655,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1699,
"implied_prob": 0.3655,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Plymouth Parkway",
"home": "Gloucester City"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.080679,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2225,
"implied_prob": 0.3997,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1049,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.21,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4093,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.45248868778280543,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1167,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1597358,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-29T18:49:34.476355+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Gloucester City & Plymouth Parkway!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Perdana Bukan Liga - Selatan Selatan — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plymouth Parkway | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 2 | Uxbridge | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 3 | Hanworth Villa | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 4 | Chertsey Town | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 5 | Bath City | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Frome Town | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Chichester City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Berkhamsted | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 9 | Taunton Town | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 10 | Poole Town | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 11 | Gosport Borough | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 12 | Yate Town | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 13 | Evesham United | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 14 | Bracknell Town | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 15 | Wimborne Town | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 16 | Basingstoke Town | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 17 | Sholing | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 18 | Chippenham Town | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 19 | Hanwell Town | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 20 | Gloucester City | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 21 | Malvern Town | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 22 | Havant & Waterlooville | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plymouth Parkway | 8 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 19 |
| 2 | Taunton Town | 8 | 21 | 20 | +1 | 12 |
| 3 | Chertsey Town | 8 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 14 |
| 4 | Uxbridge | 8 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 17 |
| 5 | Hanworth Villa | 8 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 16 |
| 6 | Chichester City | 8 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 13 |
| 7 | Basingstoke Town | 8 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 | Frome Town | 8 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 13 |
| 9 | Malvern Town | 8 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 5 |
| 10 | Bath City | 8 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 14 |
| 11 | Gosport Borough | 8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 11 |
| 12 | Berkhamsted | 9 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 13 |
| 13 | Evesham United | 7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Gloucester City | 8 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 6 |
| 15 | Yate Town | 7 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 11 |
| 16 | Bracknell Town | 8 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 10 |
| 17 | Poole Town | 7 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 12 |
| 18 | Havant & Waterlooville | 8 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 4 |
| 19 | Sholing | 7 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 7 |
| 20 | Chippenham Town | 7 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 7 |
| 21 | Wimborne Town | 7 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 9 |
| 22 | Hanwell Town | 7 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 |
