Ya 56.2% · Tidak 43.8%
EV Ya -4.5% · EV No +0.7%
Condong nilai: BTTS Tidak
Penilaian Ramalan
Ramalan yang boleh dipercayai
- Kegemaran
- Atmosfera Perlawanan seimbang
- Kebarangkalian model
- 39.7%
- Kebarangkalian pasaran
- 42.1%
- Perjanjian pasaran
- kuat
- Pengesahan
- lulus
Ringkasan:
Model dan pasaran kedua-dua lean {pasukan}, tetapi kedua-duanya tidak menunjukkan kegemaran yang dominan. Seri dan Jonava kekal munasabah — ini perlawanan yang agak terbuka.
Log masuk untuk melihat keputusan pertaruhan penuh
Daftar percuma untuk membuka kunci keputusan pertaruhan akhir — pasaran mana lulus, di mana +EV mungkin wujud, dan amaran steam.
Audit Pasaran
- Perjanjian pasaran
- kuat
- Pengesahan
- lulus
- Jurang terbesar
- Atmosfera -2.4 pp
- Keluasan
- 8/8
- Aktiviti pasaran semasa
- Belum ada pergerakan arah yang bermakna.
Penilaian Pasaran
Pasaran dan model adalah sejajar secara meluas. Sebarang jurang harga yang kecil mungkin menggambarkan margin penggenapan atau pembuat taruhan, bukan percanggahan struktur.
Walau bagaimanapun, Jonava telah menyaksikan hanyut — kemungkinan dipanjangkan dengan 0.0%, mencadangkan sokongan yang lemah.
Aktiviti pasaran kini tertumpu pada Jonava.
- Harga semasa kekal hampir dengan garis dasar model.
| Hasil | Adil | Pasaran | Tepi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jonava | 31.42% | 31.3% | +0.1 pp |
| Seri | 28.87% | 26.63% | +2.2 pp |
| Atmosfera | 39.71% | 42.08% | -2.4 pp |
Kebarangkalian saksama daripada model statistik Poisson/xG. Bukan penentu taruhan. Bukan nasihat pertaruhan.
Keputusan pertaruhan akhir
Kecekapan harga pasaran berbeza secara berbeza — 1X2 boleh menjadi hantaran sementara pasaran matlamat masih menunjukkan kelebihan.
- Tiada nilai pada 1X2 (Atmosfera lwn. odds semasa)
- Nilai yang mungkin: Kurang 2.5 (+3.7% EV pada kemungkinan terbaik)
- Tepi nipis: BTTS Tidak (+0.7% — di bawah bar saiz lalai)
- Significant line move — see market context below.
Sabitan rendah (4/10) — lebih suka taruhan yang lebih kecil atau langkau.
Laman pertaruhan premium 1xBet: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo 1x_3342271. Daftar sekarang
+EV terbaik (pasaran dijejak)
Kurang 2.5
— Nilai
Atmosfera · Kebarangkalian model 39.7%
Konsensus pasaran (3 hala) 42.1%
EV garisan konsensus: -13.0%
Garis pembuat taruhan terbaik yang tersedia: -8.6% EV
Sesetengah odds outlier pembuat taruhan mungkin masih menunjukkan nilai teori kecil berbanding garisan konsensus di atas.
Paling berkemungkinan
1-1
Kebarangkalian 12.2%
Skor tepat berisiko tinggi — pertaruhan kecil untuk hiburan sahaja.
Keputusan pertaruhan (model lwn. EV pasaran)
Pelaksanaan: tiada Primary/alternatif saiz standard — pasaran lain mungkin +EV pada kad di bawah.
Pasaran: mungkin ada jurang kecil model–harga pada garis marginal/bervarians tinggi — bukan pertaruhan lalai; kurangkan saiz jika mencuba.
(Teknikal: sekurang-kurangnya satu baris dijejak melepasi ambang +EV pada ≥2.0% pada odds terbaik — bukan pertaruhan lalai.)
Kekuatan keputusan: 4.0 / 10
- Kebarangkalian maksimum 1X2 di bawah 50% (tiada 1X2 dominan) (−1.0)
O/U 2.5:
EV Selesai -6.4% ·
EV Di Bawah +3.7%
(7 pasangan buku)
BTTS: EV Ya -4.5% · EV No +0.7%
BTTS: EV Ya -4.5% · EV No +0.7%
Jonava market context before kickoff
⚠️ Pasaran tidak stabil on Jonava
- Odds move
- 2.80 → 2.80 (+0.0%)
- Market breadth
- 8/8
- Steam score
- 30 (C)
- Current status
- 1X2 repriced at consensus; goals markets may still show +EV.
Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Kitaran Hayat Keputusan
Peringkat semasa: Pemantauan pasaran
- Ramalan Dijana
- Pasaran Berbanding
- Pengesahan Lulus
- Penutupan Dirakam
- CLV Dinilai
- Kemasukan
- 2.12
- Penutup
- Belum selesai
- CLV
- Belum selesai
Enjin Keputusan OddsGPT v2.2.0
Sentiasa diperhalusi menggunakan prestasi model, data pasaran dan keputusan sejarah.
Semak Odds di 1xBet
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4338,
"best_odd": 2.12,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0104,
"ev": -0.1301,
"implied_prob": 0.4208,
"model_prob": 0.3967,
"p_final": 0.4103
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2898,
"best_odd": 3.35,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0066,
"ev": -0.086,
"implied_prob": 0.2663,
"model_prob": 0.2889,
"p_final": 0.2728
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4491,
"best_odd": 2.85,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0006,
"ev": -0.1062,
"implied_prob": 0.313,
"model_prob": 0.3144,
"p_final": 0.3136
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.3,
"best_yes_odd": 1.7,
"edge_no": 0.0116,
"edge_yes": -0.0116,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0074,
"ev_yes": -0.0446,
"implied_no": 0.4264,
"implied_yes": 0.5736,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.85,
"best_under_odd": 2.1,
"edge_over": -0.0307,
"edge_under": 0.0307,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0639,
"ev_under": 0.0374,
"implied_over": 0.5367,
"implied_under": 0.4633,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0374,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"score": 4.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.562,
"draw_prob": 0.2889,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3967,
"over_prob": 0.506,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.494,
"xg_diff": 0.18
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0374,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4633,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.494,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "under",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0104,
"ev": -0.1301,
"implied_prob": 0.4208,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3967,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Atmosfera"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0116,
"ev": 0.0074,
"implied_prob": 0.4264,
"model_prob": 0.438,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0307,
"ev": 0.0374,
"implied_prob": 0.4633,
"model_prob": 0.494,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1529740,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0374,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3967,
"draw": 0.2889,
"home": 0.3144
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Atmosfera",
"home": "Jonava"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1529740,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T00:47:57.150788+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Bagaimana untuk menggunakan ini
- Fokus pada baris Utama apabila anda mahukan satu idea yang boleh diambil tindakan.
- Jangan parlay banyak picks tepi nipis bersama-sama;tepi tidak menambah dengan pasti.
- Anggap pukulan panjang sebagai permainan pilihan, bersaiz tinggi sahaja.
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