Ya 54.5% · Tidak 45.5%
EV Ya -11.7% · EV No +4.7%
Condong nilai: BTTS Tidak
Penilaian Ramalan
Ramalan yang boleh dipercayai
- Kegemaran
- Tukums Perlawanan seimbang
- Kebarangkalian model
- 35.6%
- Kebarangkalian pasaran
- 37.5%
- Perjanjian pasaran
- kuat
- Pengesahan
- lulus
Ringkasan:
Model dan pasaran kedua-dua lean {pasukan}, tetapi kedua-duanya tidak menunjukkan kegemaran yang dominan. Seri dan BFC Daugavpils kekal munasabah — ini perlawanan yang agak terbuka.
Log masuk untuk melihat keputusan pertaruhan penuh
Daftar percuma untuk membuka kunci keputusan pertaruhan akhir — pasaran mana lulus, di mana +EV mungkin wujud, dan amaran steam.
Perisikan Pergerakan Pasaran
- Pergerakan semasa
- Tukums ↓ -2.0% 2.45 → 2.4
- Jenis bergerak
- ↗ Sokongan pasaran
- Skor Stim
- 30C
Limited conviction - Keluasan pasaran
- 9/13
- fasa
- Penemuan
- Buku rujuk
- Bet365
Gerakan dipimpin sharp: Betfair - Pengesahan CLV
- Waiting for Close
Pergerakan konsensus tertinggi
Laluan Odds — Tukums
— Garis stabil
Buka
2.55
Rendah / Tinggi
2.28
semasa
2.40
Naratif Pasaran
Sokongan pasaran pada Tukums (2.0%) — 9/13 buku memendekkan garisan.
Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal.
Audit Pasaran
- Perjanjian pasaran
- kuat
- Pengesahan
- lulus
- Jurang terbesar
- Seri +3.2 pp
- Keluasan
- 9/13
- Aktiviti pasaran semasa
- Tukums kemungkinan dipendekkan ↓ -2.0%.
Penilaian Pasaran
Pasaran dan model adalah sejajar secara meluas. Sebarang jurang harga yang kecil mungkin menggambarkan margin penggenapan atau pembuat taruhan, bukan percanggahan struktur.
Walau bagaimanapun, minat belian baru-baru ini ada pada Tukums, dengan kemungkinan berkurangan sebanyak 2.0%.
Membeli minat pada Tukums — kemungkinan dipendekkan dengan 2.0%.
- Harga semasa kekal hampir dengan garis dasar model.
| Hasil | Adil | Pasaran | Tepi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tukums | 35.64% | 37.54% | -1.9 pp |
| Seri | 29.65% | 26.42% | +3.2 pp |
| BFC Daugavpils | 34.7% | 36.04% | -1.3 pp |
Kebarangkalian saksama daripada model statistik Poisson/xG. Bukan penentu taruhan. Bukan nasihat pertaruhan.
Keputusan pertaruhan akhir
Kecekapan harga pasaran berbeza secara berbeza — 1X2 boleh menjadi hantaran sementara pasaran matlamat masih menunjukkan kelebihan.
- Tiada nilai pada 1X2 (Tukums lwn. odds semasa)
- Nilai yang mungkin: Kurang 2.5 (+8.8% EV pada kemungkinan terbaik)
- Nilai yang mungkin: BTTS Tidak (+4.7% EV pada kemungkinan terbaik)
- Significant line move — see market context below.
Sabitan sederhana (5.5/10) — satu baris terpilih, bukan parlay berbilang pasaran.
Laman pertaruhan premium 1xBet: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo 1x_3342271. Daftar sekarang
Pilihan utama (+EV tertinggi)
Kurang 2.5
— Nilai
Tukums · Kebarangkalian model 35.6%
Konsensus pasaran (3 hala) 37.5%
EV garisan konsensus: -11.9%
Garis pembuat taruhan terbaik yang tersedia: -6.7% EV
Sesetengah odds outlier pembuat taruhan mungkin masih menunjukkan nilai teori kecil berbanding garisan konsensus di atas.
Paling berkemungkinan
1-1
Kebarangkalian 12.6%
Skor tepat berisiko tinggi — pertaruhan kecil untuk hiburan sahaja.
Keputusan pertaruhan (model lwn. EV pasaran)
Nilai terpilih — Sekurang-kurangnya satu pasaran yang dijejaki mungkin mengosongkan +EV pada kemungkinan terbaik, tetapi sabitan adalah terhad (5.5/10) — saiz ke bawah.
Kekuatan keputusan: 5.5 / 10
- Barisan utama dikenal pasti (+1.0)
- Kebarangkalian maksimum 1X2 di bawah 50% (tiada 1X2 dominan) (−1.0)
- Dua atau lebih baris +EV yang sah pada ambang (+0.5)
O/U 2.5:
EV Selesai -15.7% ·
EV Di Bawah +8.8%
(11 pasangan buku)
BTTS: EV Ya -11.7% · EV No +4.7%
BTTS: EV Ya -11.7% · EV No +4.7%
Tukums market context before kickoff
↗ Sokongan pasaran on Tukums
- Odds move
- 2.45 → 2.40 (↓ -2.0%)
- Market breadth
- 9/13
- Steam score
- 30 (C)
- Current status
- 1X2 repriced at consensus; goals markets may still show +EV.
Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Kitaran Hayat Keputusan
Peringkat semasa: Pemantauan pasaran
- Ramalan Dijana
- Pasaran Berbanding
- Pengesahan Lulus
- Penutupan Dirakam
- CLV Dinilai
- Kemasukan
- 3.41
- Penutup
- Belum selesai
- CLV
- Belum selesai
Enjin Keputusan OddsGPT v2.2.0
Sentiasa diperhalusi menggunakan prestasi model, data pasaran dan keputusan sejarah.
Semak Odds di 1xBet
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
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"home_team_id": 4144,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4144.webp",
"home_team_name": "Tukums",
"league_country": "Latvia",
"league_id": 365,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/365.webp",
"league_name": "Virsliga",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-12 15:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Tukums",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4361,
"best_odd": 2.45,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.009,
"ev": -0.1207,
"implied_prob": 0.3679,
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.3589
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2854,
"best_odd": 3.41,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0093,
"ev": -0.0671,
"implied_prob": 0.2643,
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.2736
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.442,
"best_odd": 2.45,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0053,
"ev": -0.1117,
"implied_prob": 0.3679,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.3626
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.3,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"edge_no": 0.0423,
"edge_yes": -0.0423,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0465,
"ev_yes": -0.1171,
"implied_no": 0.4127,
"implied_yes": 0.5873,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.75,
"best_under_odd": 2.12,
"edge_over": -0.0661,
"edge_under": 0.0661,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1565,
"ev_under": 0.0982,
"implied_over": 0.5481,
"implied_under": 0.4519,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0982,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0053,
"ev": -0.1117,
"implied_prob": 0.3679,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Tukums"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0423,
"ev": 0.0465,
"implied_prob": 0.4127,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0661,
"ev": 0.0982,
"implied_prob": 0.4519,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1515854,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0982,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3473,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3559
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "BFC Daugavpils",
"home": "Tukums"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.035607,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0982,
"implied_prob": 0.4519,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1515854,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T06:38:55.955897+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Bagaimana untuk menggunakan ini
- Fokus pada baris Utama apabila anda mahukan satu idea yang boleh diambil tindakan.
- Jangan parlay banyak picks tepi nipis bersama-sama;tepi tidak menambah dengan pasti.
- Anggap pukulan panjang sebagai permainan pilihan, bersaiz tinggi sahaja.
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Tukums & BFC Daugavpils!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Latvia. Virsliga Ramalan
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