The model missed the final outcome (Panevėžys win 0–2).
The model had projected FK Žalgiris Vilnius at 41.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 FK Žalgiris Vilnius Panevėžys ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned FK Žalgiris Vilnius; match finished Panevėžys
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The full-time result was Panevėžys win 0–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · FK Žalgiris Vilnius 1.42 — Panevėžys 1.18
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Panevėžys win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Panevėžys win · FK Žalgiris Vilnius 0–2 Panevėžys
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
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},
{
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"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1772,
"ev_available": true,
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"raw_pct": -17.7,
"text": "-17.7%"
},
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"id": "1x2",
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"max_ev": -0.071,
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"text": "-7.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4188,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.7,
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"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.4%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"sort_key": 1782.25,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
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"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.7,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.67,
"hero_label": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"market_prob_pct": 48.6,
"market_team": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"model_prob_pct": 41.9,
"model_team": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
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"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
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"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.295,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.295,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius at 41.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius as the value side (41.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius).",
"Decision strength: 7.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1772,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4857,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4188,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2336,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "5/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8333333333333334,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.3,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 82,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.67,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.67,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.18,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.42,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.42,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.42 \u00b7 Away xG 1.18 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +5%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 86,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.295,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.295,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius at 41.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius as the value side (41.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius).",
"Decision strength: 7.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1772,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4857,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4188,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2336,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius 1.42 xG vs Panev\u0117\u017eys 1.18 \u2192 FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius 41.9%",
"Market: FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius ~48.6% implied",
"Market Steam: FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -6.67,
"fair_prob": 41.9,
"label": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"market_prob": 48.57,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.44,
"fair_prob": 27.41,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.97,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.23,
"fair_prob": 30.69,
"label": "Panev\u0117\u017eys",
"market_prob": 26.46,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.06,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 62.26,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.06,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 37.74,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.12,
"fair_prob": 53.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 63.22,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.12,
"fair_prob": 46.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 36.78,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -6.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.9,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"market_prob_pct": 48.57,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius\u0027s win probability at 48.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 41.9%, a difference of 6.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 6.67,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 48.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-6.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -6.7,
"model_prob_pct": 41.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-6.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -6.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 82,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 86,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius 1.42 xG vs Panev\u0117\u017eys 1.18 \u2192 FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius 41.9%",
"Market: FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius ~48.6% implied",
"Market Steam: FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.67,
"hero_label": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "The market shows a modest preference for FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius relative to the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius above the current fair estimate.",
"Pricing has been stable with broad sportsbook participation, suggesting settled consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.67,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 11.2 pp (at 41.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 11.2,
"max_prob_pct": 41.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"largest_gap_pp": -6.7,
"lead": "The closing market prices FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.7,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -6.67,
"edge_pp": -6.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.9,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"market_prob_pct": 48.57,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.44,
"edge_pp": 2.44,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.41,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.97,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.23,
"edge_pp": 4.23,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.69,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Panev\u0117\u017eys",
"market_prob_pct": 26.46,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market shows a modest preference for FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius relative to the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius (48.6%).",
"FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 54.64,
"closing_odds": 1.83,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 54.64,
"entry_odds": 1.83,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/6",
"current_odds": 1.8,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.8,
"pick_team": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"steam_score": 25,
"steam_team_name": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "panevezys",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Panev\u0117\u017eys",
"away_team_id": 3874,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3874.webp",
"away_team_name": "Panev\u0117\u017eys",
"away_team_public_id": "2X6fhUlT7qDsX2",
"away_team_slug": "panevezys",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1643225,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Lithuania",
"home_team_display_name": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"home_team_id": 586,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/586.webp",
"home_team_name": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"home_team_public_id": "0UAoiE7TfoC3Lw",
"home_team_slug": "fk-zalgiris-vilnius",
"ht.home_team_slug": "fk-zalgiris-vilnius",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Amistosos de Clubes",
"league_id": 667,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/667.webp",
"league_name": "Amistosos de Clubes",
"league_public_id": "3I6eEw8WBX7aoH",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-03 10:00:00",
"public_id": "38Pa9uYoPuQQpk",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2809,
"best_odd": 3.36,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0119,
"ev": -0.071,
"implied_prob": 0.2646,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2646,
"draw": 0.2497,
"home": 0.4857
},
"model_prob": 0.307,
"p_final": 0.2765
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.289,
"best_odd": 3.56,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0071,
"ev": -0.0859,
"implied_prob": 0.2497,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2646,
"draw": 0.2497,
"home": 0.4857
},
"model_prob": 0.2742,
"p_final": 0.2568
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5397,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0361,
"ev": -0.1772,
"implied_prob": 0.4857,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2646,
"draw": 0.2497,
"home": 0.4857
},
"model_prob": 0.4188,
"p_final": 0.4496
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.36,
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": 0.0316,
"implied_prob": 0.2976,
"model_prob": 0.307
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.56,
"edge": -0.0067,
"ev": -0.0238,
"implied_prob": 0.2809,
"model_prob": 0.2742
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": -0.1277,
"ev": -0.2336,
"implied_prob": 0.5464,
"model_prob": 0.4188
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1069,
"alpha_yes": 0.1469,
"best_no_odd": 2.53,
"best_yes_odd": 1.46,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1012,
"edge_yes": -0.1012,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1866,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0498,
"ev_yes": -0.2247,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0986,
"implied_no": 0.3678,
"implied_yes": 0.6322,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1069,
"best_odd": 2.51,
"edge": 0.0108,
"ev": -0.0498,
"implied_prob": 0.3678,
"model_prob": 0.469,
"p_final": 0.3786
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1469,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0149,
"ev": -0.0986,
"implied_prob": 0.6322,
"model_prob": 0.531,
"p_final": 0.6174
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.3786,
"p_final_yes": 0.6174,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1954,
"alpha_under": 0.1421,
"best_over_odd": 1.52,
"best_under_odd": 2.5,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.49,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.455,
"edge_over": -0.1406,
"edge_under": 0.1406,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2674,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1136,
"ev_under": 0.295,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0238,
"implied_over": 0.6226,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6223,
"implied_under": 0.3774,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3777,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1954,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0274,
"ev": -0.1136,
"implied_prob": 0.6223,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5949
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1421,
"best_odd": 2.455,
"edge": 0.0199,
"ev": -0.0238,
"implied_prob": 0.3777,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3976
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5949,
"p_final_under": 0.3976,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.295,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.295,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.295,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.8
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.295,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.295,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius at 41.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius as the value side (41.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius).",
"Decision strength: 7.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1772,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4857,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4188,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2336,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.531,
"draw_prob": 0.2742,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4188,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.24
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0361,
"ev": -0.1772,
"implied_prob": 0.4857,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4188,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1069,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.51,
"edge": 0.0108,
"market_prob": 0.3678,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.469,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1069,
"best_odd": 2.51,
"edge": 0.0108,
"ev": -0.0498,
"implied_prob": 0.3678,
"model_prob": 0.469,
"p_final": 0.3786
},
"p_final": 0.3786,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0498,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1469,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0149,
"ev": -0.0986,
"implied_prob": 0.6322,
"model_prob": 0.531,
"p_final": 0.6174
}
},
"edge": 0.1012,
"ev": 0.1866,
"implied_prob": 0.3678,
"model_prob": 0.469,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1421,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.455,
"edge": 0.0199,
"market_prob": 0.3777,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1954,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0274,
"ev": -0.1136,
"implied_prob": 0.6223,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5949
},
"p_final": 0.3976,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0238,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1421,
"best_odd": 2.455,
"edge": 0.0199,
"ev": -0.0238,
"implied_prob": 0.3777,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3976
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1406,
"ev": 0.295,
"implied_prob": 0.3774,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1643225,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.295,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.307,
"draw": 0.2742,
"home": 0.4188
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1866,
"implied_prob": 0.3678,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.469,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1866,
"implied_prob": 0.3678,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.469,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Panev\u0117\u017eys",
"home": "FK \u017dalgiris Vilnius"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.15281,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.295,
"implied_prob": 0.3774,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1772,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4857,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4188,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5464480874316939,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2336,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1643225,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-03T10:00:46.501899+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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