The model missed the final outcome (Hamburger SV win 2–0).
The model had projected FC Copenhague at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 FC Copenhague Hamburger SV ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned FC Copenhague; match finished Hamburger SV
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The full-time result was Hamburger SV win 2–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Hamburger SV 1.23 — FC Copenhague 1.37
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Hamburger SV win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Hamburger SV win · Hamburger SV 2–0 FC Copenhague
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"api_prediction": {
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
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"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 53.4,
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{
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{
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],
"source": "xG"
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"double_chance": {
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},
{
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"prob": 72.4
},
{
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}
],
"pick_key": "12",
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"pick_prob": 72.4
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"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 27.6,
"home_pct": 32.9,
"lean_key": "away",
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},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
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"confidence": "low",
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"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
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"edge": 17.0,
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"model_prob": 39.5,
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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},
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"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-04 13:30:30",
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{
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{
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{
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{
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}
]
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},
"ev_available": true,
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"ev_over_display": {
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"raw_pct": -21.9,
"text": "-21.9%"
},
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"ev_under_display": {
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"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
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{
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"no": {
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"edge": 0.0154,
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},
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
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"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 21.2,
"text": "+21.2%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1456,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.6,
"text": "-14.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 46.6,
"sort_key": 10190.44,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 53.4
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from FC Copenhague, but the model still strongly favours FC Copenhague.",
"consensus_odds": 2.96,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0154,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.5,
"text": "+1.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3093,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0154,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.5,
"text": "+1.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3954,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1704,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+17.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "FC Copenhague",
"sort_key": 5212.32,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +20.8%",
"alert_team": "FC Copenhague",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 12.2,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.16,
"hero_label": "Hamburger SV",
"market_prob_pct": 30.9,
"market_team": "Hamburger SV",
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"model_team": "FC Copenhague",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 82,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from FC Copenhague, but the model still strongly favours FC Copenhague."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from FC Copenhague, but the model still strongly favours FC Copenhague."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3157,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3157,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FC Copenhague at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FC Copenhague as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from FC Copenhague, but the model still strongly favours FC Copenhague.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FC Copenhague",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +31.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +31.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +31.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+31.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from FC Copenhague, but the model still strongly favours FC Copenhague.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from FC Copenhague, but the model still strongly favours FC Copenhague.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0154,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.96,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3093,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3954,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33783783783783783,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1704,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+17.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "7/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7777777777777778,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.8,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 58,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.16,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.16,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.37,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.23,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.37,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.23 \u00b7 Away xG 1.37 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.8,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +20.8%",
"steam_team": "FC Copenhague",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from FC Copenhague, but the model still strongly favours FC Copenhague.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from FC Copenhague, but the model still strongly favours FC Copenhague."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from FC Copenhague, but the model still strongly favours FC Copenhague."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3157,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3157,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FC Copenhague at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FC Copenhague as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from FC Copenhague, but the model still strongly favours FC Copenhague.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FC Copenhague",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +31.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +31.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +31.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+31.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from FC Copenhague, but the model still strongly favours FC Copenhague.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from FC Copenhague, but the model still strongly favours FC Copenhague.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0154,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.96,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3093,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3954,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33783783783783783,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1704,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+17.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from FC Copenhague, but the model still strongly favours FC Copenhague.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Hamburger SV 1.23 xG vs FC Copenhague 1.37 \u2192 FC Copenhague 39.5%",
"Market: Hamburger SV ~30.9% implied",
"Market Drift: FC Copenhague odds \u2191 +20.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours FC Copenhague, but the market has moved away from FC Copenhague.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -12.16,
"fair_prob": 32.94,
"label": "Hamburger SV",
"market_prob": 45.1,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.6,
"fair_prob": 27.57,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.97,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.56,
"fair_prob": 39.49,
"label": "FC Copenhague",
"market_prob": 30.93,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.49,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.69,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.49,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.31,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.97,
"fair_prob": 53.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 62.37,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.97,
"fair_prob": 46.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 37.63,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -12.16,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.94,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Hamburger SV",
"market_prob_pct": 45.1,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "FC Copenhague"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Hamburger SV\u0027s win probability at 45.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 12.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 12.16,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "FC Copenhague",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 30.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+8.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 8.6,
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+8.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 8.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 58,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from FC Copenhague, but the model still strongly favours FC Copenhague. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Hamburger SV 1.23 xG vs FC Copenhague 1.37 \u2192 FC Copenhague 39.5%",
"Market: Hamburger SV ~30.9% implied",
"Market Drift: FC Copenhague odds \u2191 +20.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours FC Copenhague, but the market has moved away from FC Copenhague.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.16,
"hero_label": "Hamburger SV",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "FC Copenhague odds lengthened \u2191 +20.8%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, FC Copenhague has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 20.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Hamburger SV than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from FC Copenhague \u2014 odds lengthened by 20.8% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Hamburger SV than the current fair estimate.",
"However, FC Copenhague has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 20.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from FC Copenhague \u2014 odds lengthened by 20.8% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Hamburger SV more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, FC Copenhague has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 20.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/9) supports the current market view on FC Copenhague."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.16,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.6 pp (at 39.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.6,
"max_prob_pct": 39.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Hamburger SV",
"largest_gap_pp": -12.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices Hamburger SV higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 12.2,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -12.16,
"edge_pp": -12.16,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.94,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Hamburger SV",
"market_prob_pct": 45.1,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.6,
"edge_pp": 3.6,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.57,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.97,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 8.56,
"edge_pp": 8.56,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.49,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "FC Copenhague",
"market_prob_pct": 30.93,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from FC Copenhague \u2014 odds lengthened by 20.8% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Hamburger SV (30.9%).",
"However, FC Copenhague has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +20.8%, 7/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 FC Copenhague, Market \u2192 Hamburger SV, while FC Copenhague odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 49.26,
"closing_odds": 2.03,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 49.26,
"entry_odds": 2.03,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +24.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 24.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +22.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +22.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +22.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.1
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.9,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +20.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 20.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 11h 59m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"7/9 books lengthened FC Copenhague together (20.8% drift, score 82) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Broad multi-book drift \u2014 odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.96",
"2.68",
"2.40"
],
"display": "3.23 \u2192 2.40 \u2192 2.90",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 11h 59m",
"pick_team": "FC Copenhague",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.23"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.90"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.4,
2.96,
2.9
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,1.9",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.96"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.90"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.4,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: FC Copenhague odds \u2191 +20.8% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "FC Copenhague",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: FC Copenhague odds \u2191 +20.8% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.9,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +20.8%",
"open_odds": 2.4,
"summary": "Market moved away from FC Copenhague while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "FC Copenhague",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 82,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"current_odds": 2.9,
"move_display": "\u2191 +20.8%",
"open_odds": 2.4,
"pick_team": "FC Copenhague",
"steam_score": 82,
"steam_team_name": "FC Copenhague",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "fc-copenhagen",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "FC Copenhague",
"away_team_id": 400,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/400.webp",
"away_team_name": "FC Copenhague",
"away_team_public_id": "1h8UV6HfQBY3jD",
"away_team_slug": "fc-copenhagen",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1642963,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Germany",
"home_team_display_name": "Hamburger SV",
"home_team_id": 175,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/175.webp",
"home_team_name": "Hamburger SV",
"home_team_public_id": "5haQX26Pl2dpKn",
"home_team_slug": "hamburger-sv",
"ht.home_team_slug": "hamburger-sv",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Amistosos de Clubes",
"league_id": 667,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/667.webp",
"league_name": "Amistosos de Clubes",
"league_public_id": "3I6eEw8WBX7aoH",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-04 13:30:00",
"public_id": "1ur37YV20CbLyc",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3919,
"best_odd": 2.96,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0337,
"ev": 0.0154,
"implied_prob": 0.3093,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3093,
"draw": 0.2397,
"home": 0.451
},
"model_prob": 0.3954,
"p_final": 0.343
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2838,
"best_odd": 3.82,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0102,
"ev": -0.0455,
"implied_prob": 0.2397,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3093,
"draw": 0.2397,
"home": 0.451
},
"model_prob": 0.2756,
"p_final": 0.2499
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3677,
"best_odd": 2.03,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0448,
"ev": -0.1755,
"implied_prob": 0.451,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3093,
"draw": 0.2397,
"home": 0.451
},
"model_prob": 0.3291,
"p_final": 0.4062
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.96,
"edge": 0.0575,
"ev": 0.1703,
"implied_prob": 0.3378,
"model_prob": 0.3954
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.82,
"edge": 0.0138,
"ev": 0.0527,
"implied_prob": 0.2618,
"model_prob": 0.2756
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.03,
"edge": -0.1636,
"ev": -0.332,
"implied_prob": 0.4926,
"model_prob": 0.3291
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1529,
"alpha_yes": 0.2102,
"best_no_odd": 2.6,
"best_yes_odd": 1.6,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0897,
"edge_yes": -0.0897,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2116,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0479,
"ev_yes": -0.1456,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1167,
"implied_no": 0.3763,
"implied_yes": 0.6237,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1529,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0154,
"ev": -0.0479,
"implied_prob": 0.3655,
"model_prob": 0.466,
"p_final": 0.3808
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2102,
"best_odd": 1.44,
"edge": -0.0211,
"ev": -0.1167,
"implied_prob": 0.6345,
"model_prob": 0.534,
"p_final": 0.6134
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.3808,
"p_final_yes": 0.6134,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1994,
"alpha_under": 0.145,
"best_over_odd": 1.62,
"best_under_odd": 2.54,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.49,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.345,
"edge_over": -0.1249,
"edge_under": 0.1249,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2192,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1274,
"ev_under": 0.3157,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0449,
"implied_over": 0.6069,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6115,
"implied_under": 0.3931,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3885,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1994,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.0258,
"ev": -0.1274,
"implied_prob": 0.6115,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5857
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.145,
"best_odd": 2.345,
"edge": 0.0188,
"ev": -0.0449,
"implied_prob": 0.3885,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4073
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5857,
"p_final_under": 0.4073,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3157,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3157,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3157,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.9
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from FC Copenhague, but the model still strongly favours FC Copenhague."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3157,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3157,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FC Copenhague at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FC Copenhague as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from FC Copenhague, but the model still strongly favours FC Copenhague.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FC Copenhague",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +31.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +31.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +31.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+31.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from FC Copenhague, but the model still strongly favours FC Copenhague.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from FC Copenhague, but the model still strongly favours FC Copenhague.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
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"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
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"source": "db",
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},
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"tier": "observe",
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"version": "v2.5",
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"calibration_status": "warning",
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"reasons": [
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],
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"strength_delta": -1.0,
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}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
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"type": "neutral",
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},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
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"markets": {
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"max_ev_side": "away",
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"side": "away",
"side_label": "FC Copenhague"
},
"btts": {
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"decision_layer": {
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"no": {
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0479,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
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},
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},
"ou_2_5": {
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"over": {
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}
},
"match_id": 1642963,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
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"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
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"insight_line_key": null,
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},
"match_tier": "value_game",
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"probabilities": {
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},
"reason_codes": [
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],
"secondary_pick": {
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"risk_band": "medium",
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"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
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"risk_band": "medium",
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"side": "no",
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}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "FC Copenhague",
"home": "Hamburger SV"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
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"market": "ou_2_5",
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"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0154,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.96,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3093,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3954,
"raw_edge_display": "+8.6 percentage points",
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"raw_signal_ev": 0.1704,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+17.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1642963,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-04T13:30:33.209927+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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