AI correctly predicted the Raków Częstochowa win.
The match finished 4–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Raków Częstochowa Raków Częstochowa ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-1 ✖ Incorrecto
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Raków Częstochowa win 4–1).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Oct 02, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Raków Częstochowa 1.39 — Polonia Bytom 1.21
-
Oct 02, 2026 · 09:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Raków Częstochowa win · 4–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Raków Częstochowa win · Raków Częstochowa 4–1 Polonia Bytom
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
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"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 54.1%.",
"why": [
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"text": "Decision Model identifies Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
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},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
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}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.6,
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Polonia Bytom, but the model still strongly favours Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa",
"no_primary_reasons": {
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],
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],
"label": "Reason",
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{
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"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
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"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
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"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +42.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +42.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +42.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+42.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Polonia Bytom, but the model still strongly favours Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Polonia Bytom, but the model still strongly favours Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2196,
"consensus_ev_display": "-22.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.64,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5409,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4045,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6097560975609756,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3366,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-33.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8571428571428571,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.6,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 58,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 13.64,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 13.64,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.21,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.39,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.39,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.39 \u00b7 Away xG 1.21 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.8,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -4.8%",
"steam_team": "Polonia Bytom",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Polonia Bytom, but the model still strongly favours Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Polonia Bytom, but the model still strongly favours Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Polonia Bytom, but the model still strongly favours Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4245,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4245,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 54.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Polonia Bytom, but the model still strongly favours Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +42.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +42.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +42.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+42.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Polonia Bytom, but the model still strongly favours Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Polonia Bytom, but the model still strongly favours Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2196,
"consensus_ev_display": "-22.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.64,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5409,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4045,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6097560975609756,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3366,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-33.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Polonia Bytom, but the model still strongly favours Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa 1.39 xG vs Polonia Bytom 1.21 \u2192 Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa 40.5%",
"Market: Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa ~54.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Polonia Bytom \u2193 -4.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa, but sharp money moved toward Polonia Bytom.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -13.64,
"fair_prob": 40.45,
"label": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa",
"market_prob": 54.09,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.41,
"fair_prob": 27.51,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.1,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.22,
"fair_prob": 32.03,
"label": "Polonia Bytom",
"market_prob": 22.81,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -16.65,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 64.85,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 16.65,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 35.15,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.38,
"fair_prob": 53.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 63.68,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.38,
"fair_prob": 46.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 36.32,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -13.64,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.45,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa",
"market_prob_pct": 54.09,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Polonia Bytom"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa\u0027s win probability at 54.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 40.5%, a difference of 13.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 13.64,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 54.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-13.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -13.6,
"model_prob_pct": 40.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-13.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -13.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 58,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Polonia Bytom, but the model still strongly favours Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 11,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa 1.39 xG vs Polonia Bytom 1.21 \u2192 Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa 40.5%",
"Market: Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa ~54.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Polonia Bytom \u2193 -4.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa, but sharp money moved toward Polonia Bytom.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.64,
"hero_label": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Polonia Bytom odds shortened \u2193 -4.8%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Polonia Bytom, with odds shortening by 4.8%.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Buying interest on Polonia Bytom \u2014 odds shortened by 4.8%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa than the current fair estimate.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Polonia Bytom, with odds shortening by 4.8%.",
"Buying interest on Polonia Bytom \u2014 odds shortened by 4.8%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Polonia Bytom has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 4.8%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/7) supports the current market view on Polonia Bytom."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 13.64,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.4 pp (at 40.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.4,
"max_prob_pct": 40.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa",
"largest_gap_pp": -13.6,
"lead": "The closing market prices Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 13.6,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -13.64,
"edge_pp": -13.64,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.45,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa",
"market_prob_pct": 54.09,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.41,
"edge_pp": 4.41,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.51,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.1,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 9.22,
"edge_pp": 9.22,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.03,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Polonia Bytom",
"market_prob_pct": 22.81,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Polonia Bytom \u2014 odds shortened by 4.8%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa (54.1%).",
"Polonia Bytom has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -4.8%, 6/7).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa, Market \u2192 Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa, Recent sharp money \u2192 Polonia Bytom.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 60.98,
"closing_odds": 1.64,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 60.98,
"entry_odds": 1.64,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -27.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -27.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -26.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -26.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -25.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -25.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -23.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -23.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -23.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -23.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.8
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "6/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 5.0,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 29h 45m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Betfair led repricing on Polonia Bytom (4.8%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"5.25",
"4.57",
"3.89"
],
"display": "6.00 \u2192 3.89 \u2192 5.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 29h 45m",
"pick_team": "Polonia Bytom",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "6.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.89"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
5.25,
3.89,
5.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,3.3",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.25"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.89"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "5.25"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 5.25,
"page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 6/7 sportsbooks on Polonia Bytom",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Polonia Bytom",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 5.0,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.8%",
"open_odds": 5.25,
"summary": "Market moved toward Polonia Bytom while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Polonia Bytom",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 47,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/7",
"current_odds": 5.0,
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.8%",
"open_odds": 5.25,
"pick_team": "Polonia Bytom",
"steam_score": 47,
"steam_team_name": "Polonia Bytom",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "polonia-bytom",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Polonia Bytom",
"away_team_id": 12835,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/12835.webp",
"away_team_name": "Polonia Bytom",
"away_team_public_id": "5ACgew7ZQ9kRAk",
"away_team_slug": "polonia-bytom",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1642905,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Poland",
"home_team_display_name": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa",
"home_team_id": 3491,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3491.webp",
"home_team_name": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa",
"home_team_public_id": "31RDKBuhNLNmZd",
"home_team_slug": "rakow-czestochowa",
"ht.home_team_slug": "rakow-czestochowa",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Amistosos de Clubes",
"league_id": 667,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/667.webp",
"league_name": "Amistosos de Clubes",
"league_public_id": "3I6eEw8WBX7aoH",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-02 09:30:00",
"public_id": "5zrYcx53rIcWqY",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2585,
"best_odd": 3.89,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0238,
"ev": -0.0202,
"implied_prob": 0.2281,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2281,
"draw": 0.231,
"home": 0.5409
},
"model_prob": 0.3202,
"p_final": 0.2519
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2801,
"best_odd": 3.84,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0124,
"ev": -0.0653,
"implied_prob": 0.231,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2281,
"draw": 0.231,
"home": 0.5409
},
"model_prob": 0.2752,
"p_final": 0.2434
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4772,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0651,
"ev": -0.2196,
"implied_prob": 0.5409,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2281,
"draw": 0.231,
"home": 0.5409
},
"model_prob": 0.4045,
"p_final": 0.4758
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.89,
"edge": 0.0632,
"ev": 0.2457,
"implied_prob": 0.2571,
"model_prob": 0.3202
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.84,
"edge": 0.0148,
"ev": 0.0569,
"implied_prob": 0.2604,
"model_prob": 0.2752
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.2052,
"ev": -0.3366,
"implied_prob": 0.6098,
"model_prob": 0.4045
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.152,
"alpha_yes": 0.209,
"best_no_odd": 2.6,
"best_yes_odd": 1.46,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1038,
"edge_yes": -0.1038,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2142,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0369,
"ev_yes": -0.2218,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1083,
"implied_no": 0.3632,
"implied_yes": 0.6368,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.152,
"best_odd": 2.54,
"edge": 0.0157,
"ev": -0.0369,
"implied_prob": 0.3634,
"model_prob": 0.467,
"p_final": 0.3792
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.209,
"best_odd": 1.45,
"edge": -0.0217,
"ev": -0.1083,
"implied_prob": 0.6366,
"model_prob": 0.533,
"p_final": 0.6149
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.3792,
"p_final_yes": 0.6149,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1842,
"alpha_under": 0.1339,
"best_over_odd": 1.52,
"best_under_odd": 2.75,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.4,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.63,
"edge_over": -0.1665,
"edge_under": 0.1665,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2674,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1303,
"ev_under": 0.4245,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0263,
"implied_over": 0.6485,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6526,
"implied_under": 0.3515,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3474,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1842,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0314,
"ev": -0.1303,
"implied_prob": 0.6526,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6212
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1339,
"best_odd": 2.63,
"edge": 0.0229,
"ev": -0.0263,
"implied_prob": 0.3474,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3702
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6212,
"p_final_under": 0.3702,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4245,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4245,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.4245,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.9
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Polonia Bytom, but the model still strongly favours Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4245,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4245,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 54.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Polonia Bytom, but the model still strongly favours Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +42.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +42.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +42.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+42.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Polonia Bytom, but the model still strongly favours Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Polonia Bytom, but the model still strongly favours Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2196,
"consensus_ev_display": "-22.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.64,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5409,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4045,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6097560975609756,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3366,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-33.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.533,
"draw_prob": 0.2752,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4045,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.18
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.64,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0651,
"ev": -0.2196,
"implied_prob": 0.5409,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4045,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.152,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.54,
"edge": 0.0157,
"market_prob": 0.3634,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.467,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.152,
"best_odd": 2.54,
"edge": 0.0157,
"ev": -0.0369,
"implied_prob": 0.3634,
"model_prob": 0.467,
"p_final": 0.3792
},
"p_final": 0.3792,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0369,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.209,
"best_odd": 1.45,
"edge": -0.0217,
"ev": -0.1083,
"implied_prob": 0.6366,
"model_prob": 0.533,
"p_final": 0.6149
}
},
"edge": 0.1038,
"ev": 0.2142,
"implied_prob": 0.3632,
"model_prob": 0.467,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1339,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.63,
"edge": 0.0229,
"market_prob": 0.3474,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1842,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0314,
"ev": -0.1303,
"implied_prob": 0.6526,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6212
},
"p_final": 0.3702,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0263,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1339,
"best_odd": 2.63,
"edge": 0.0229,
"ev": -0.0263,
"implied_prob": 0.3474,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3702
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1665,
"ev": 0.4245,
"implied_prob": 0.3515,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1642905,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.4245,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3202,
"draw": 0.2752,
"home": 0.4045
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2142,
"implied_prob": 0.3632,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.467,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2142,
"implied_prob": 0.3632,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.467,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Polonia Bytom",
"home": "Rak\u00f3w Cz\u0119stochowa"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.219891,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4245,
"implied_prob": 0.3515,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2196,
"consensus_ev_display": "-22.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.64,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5409,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4045,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6097560975609756,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3366,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-33.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1642905,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-02T09:29:13.407924+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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