The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected SAT Moreno at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 SAT Moreno Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned SAT Moreno; match finished Draw
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 2–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Oct 05, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · SAT Moreno 1.30 — Deportivo Metalúrgico 1.30
-
Oct 05, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · SAT Moreno 2–2 Deportivo Metalúrgico
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
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},
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"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from SAT Moreno, but the model still strongly favours SAT Moreno.",
"consensus_odds": 3.07,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0593,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.9,
"text": "-5.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2895,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0593,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.9,
"text": "-5.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.08,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "SAT Moreno",
"sort_key": 1785.175,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +9.2%",
"alert_team": "SAT Moreno",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.5,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.49,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.9,
"market_team": "Draw",
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"model_team": "SAT Moreno",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 28,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from SAT Moreno, but the model still strongly favours SAT Moreno."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from SAT Moreno, but the model still strongly favours SAT Moreno."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.205,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.205,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.4,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates SAT Moreno at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies SAT Moreno as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from SAT Moreno, but the model still strongly favours SAT Moreno.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "SAT Moreno",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "71 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from SAT Moreno, but the model still strongly favours SAT Moreno.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 71,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from SAT Moreno, but the model still strongly favours SAT Moreno.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0593,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.07,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2895,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.32573289902280134,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.08,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "1/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.14285714285714285,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.4,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 71,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.49,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.49,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.3,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.3,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.3,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.30 \u00b7 Away xG 1.30 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.2,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +9.2%",
"steam_team": "SAT Moreno",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from SAT Moreno, but the model still strongly favours SAT Moreno.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from SAT Moreno, but the model still strongly favours SAT Moreno."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from SAT Moreno, but the model still strongly favours SAT Moreno."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.205,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.205,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.4,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates SAT Moreno at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies SAT Moreno as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from SAT Moreno, but the model still strongly favours SAT Moreno.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "SAT Moreno",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "71 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from SAT Moreno, but the model still strongly favours SAT Moreno.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 71,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from SAT Moreno, but the model still strongly favours SAT Moreno.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0593,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.07,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2895,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.32573289902280134,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.08,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from SAT Moreno, but the model still strongly favours SAT Moreno.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: SAT Moreno 1.30 xG vs Deportivo Metal\u00fargico 1.30 \u2192 SAT Moreno 35.2%",
"Market: Draw ~28.9% implied",
"Market Drift: SAT Moreno odds \u2191 +9.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours SAT Moreno, but the market has moved away from SAT Moreno.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 6.22,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "SAT Moreno",
"market_prob": 28.95,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.49,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 38.14,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.26,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Deportivo Metal\u00fargico",
"market_prob": 32.91,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.88,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.32,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.88,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.68,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.25,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 46.25,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.25,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 53.75,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -8.49,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 38.14,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "SAT Moreno"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Draw\u0027s win probability at 38.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 29.6%, a difference of 8.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 8.49,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "SAT Moreno",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 28.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+6.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 6.3,
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+6.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 6.3,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 71,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from SAT Moreno, but the model still strongly favours SAT Moreno. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: SAT Moreno 1.30 xG vs Deportivo Metal\u00fargico 1.30 \u2192 SAT Moreno 35.2%",
"Market: Draw ~28.9% implied",
"Market Drift: SAT Moreno odds \u2191 +9.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours SAT Moreno, but the market has moved away from SAT Moreno.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.49,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "SAT Moreno odds lengthened \u2191 +9.2%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, SAT Moreno has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.2%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (1/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Draw. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Draw. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, SAT Moreno has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.2%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (1/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Draw above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, SAT Moreno has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/7), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.49,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.0 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.0,
"max_prob_pct": 35.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": -8.5,
"lead": "The closing market prices Draw higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.5,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 6.22,
"edge_pp": 6.22,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "SAT Moreno",
"market_prob_pct": 28.95,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -8.49,
"edge_pp": -8.49,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 38.14,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.26,
"edge_pp": 2.26,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Deportivo Metal\u00fargico",
"market_prob_pct": 32.91,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Draw (28.9%).",
"SAT Moreno odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +9.2%, 1/7) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 SAT Moreno, Market \u2192 Draw, while SAT Moreno odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 42.92,
"closing_odds": 2.33,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 42.92,
"entry_odds": 2.33,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.2
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "1/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.62,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 9.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 34m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on SAT Moreno (9.2%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.07",
"2.73",
"2.40"
],
"display": "3.71 \u2192 2.38 \u2192 2.62",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 34m",
"pick_team": "SAT Moreno",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.71"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.62"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.4,
3.07,
2.62
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,12.1",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.07"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.62"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.4,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "SAT Moreno",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.62,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.2%",
"open_odds": 2.4,
"summary": "Market moved away from SAT Moreno while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "SAT Moreno",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 28,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/7",
"current_odds": 2.62,
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.2%",
"open_odds": 2.4,
"pick_team": "SAT Moreno",
"steam_score": 28,
"steam_team_name": "SAT Moreno",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "deportivo-metalurgico",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Deportivo Metal\u00fargico",
"away_team_id": 23098,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/23098.webp",
"away_team_name": "Deportivo Metal\u00fargico",
"away_team_public_id": "5h2wcu0328x5f3",
"away_team_slug": "deportivo-metalurgico",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1642031,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "SAT Moreno",
"home_team_id": 23106,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/23106.webp",
"home_team_name": "SAT Moreno",
"home_team_public_id": "31dhUHl4RbrJrE",
"home_team_slug": "sat-moreno",
"ht.home_team_slug": "sat-moreno",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Torneo Promocional Amateur",
"league_id": 1067,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1067.webp",
"league_name": "Torneo Promocional Amateur",
"league_public_id": "3CqrXH4NiPah9o",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-05 16:00:00",
"public_id": "57jFUnoY2W9mtP",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4347,
"best_odd": 2.7,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0098,
"ev": -0.0848,
"implied_prob": 0.3291,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3291,
"draw": 0.3814,
"home": 0.2895
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.339
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.3927,
"best_odd": 2.33,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0334,
"ev": -0.1891,
"implied_prob": 0.3814,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3291,
"draw": 0.3814,
"home": 0.2895
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.348
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.272,
"best_odd": 3.07,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0169,
"ev": -0.0593,
"implied_prob": 0.2895,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3291,
"draw": 0.3814,
"home": 0.2895
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.3064
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.7,
"edge": -0.0186,
"ev": -0.0502,
"implied_prob": 0.3704,
"model_prob": 0.3518
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.33,
"edge": -0.1327,
"ev": -0.3093,
"implied_prob": 0.4292,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.07,
"edge": 0.026,
"ev": 0.0799,
"implied_prob": 0.3257,
"model_prob": 0.3518
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2186,
"alpha_yes": 0.1987,
"best_no_odd": 1.74,
"best_yes_odd": 2.05,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0825,
"edge_yes": 0.0825,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2083,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.118,
"ev_yes": 0.1173,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0588,
"implied_no": 0.5375,
"implied_yes": 0.4625,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2186,
"best_odd": 1.71,
"edge": -0.017,
"ev": -0.118,
"implied_prob": 0.5328,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5158
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1987,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0155,
"ev": -0.0588,
"implied_prob": 0.4672,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4827
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.5158,
"p_final_yes": 0.4827,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1566,
"alpha_under": 0.2153,
"best_over_odd": 2.5,
"best_under_odd": 1.53,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.31,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.51,
"edge_over": 0.0888,
"edge_under": -0.0888,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.205,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0555,
"ev_under": -0.2075,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1151,
"implied_over": 0.3932,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3953,
"implied_under": 0.6068,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6047,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1566,
"best_odd": 2.31,
"edge": 0.0136,
"ev": -0.0555,
"implied_prob": 0.3953,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4089
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2153,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": -0.0187,
"ev": -0.1151,
"implied_prob": 0.6047,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.586
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4089,
"p_final_under": 0.586,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.205,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.205,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.205,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.4
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from SAT Moreno, but the model still strongly favours SAT Moreno."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.205,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.205,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.4,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates SAT Moreno at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies SAT Moreno as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from SAT Moreno, but the model still strongly favours SAT Moreno.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "SAT Moreno",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "71 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from SAT Moreno, but the model still strongly favours SAT Moreno.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 71,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from SAT Moreno, but the model still strongly favours SAT Moreno.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0593,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.07,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2895,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.32573289902280134,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.08,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3518,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.0
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.07,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0169,
"ev": -0.0593,
"implied_prob": 0.2895,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "SAT Moreno"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1987,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0155,
"market_prob": 0.4672,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2186,
"best_odd": 1.71,
"edge": -0.017,
"ev": -0.118,
"implied_prob": 0.5328,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5158
},
"p_final": 0.4827,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0588,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0155,
"ev": -0.0588,
"implied_prob": 0.4672,
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"p_final": 0.4827
}
},
"edge": 0.0825,
"ev": 0.1173,
"implied_prob": 0.4625,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1566,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.31,
"edge": 0.0136,
"market_prob": 0.3953,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1566,
"best_odd": 2.31,
"edge": 0.0136,
"ev": -0.0555,
"implied_prob": 0.3953,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4089
},
"p_final": 0.4089,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0555,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2153,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": -0.0187,
"ev": -0.1151,
"implied_prob": 0.6047,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.586
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0888,
"ev": 0.205,
"implied_prob": 0.3932,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1642031,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.205,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3518,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3518
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1173,
"implied_prob": 0.4625,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1173,
"implied_prob": 0.4625,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Deportivo Metal\u00fargico",
"home": "SAT Moreno"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.069167,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.205,
"implied_prob": 0.3932,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0593,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.9%",
"consensus_odds": 3.07,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2895,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.32573289902280134,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.08,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1642031,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-05T15:59:17.923327+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Torneo Promocional Amateur — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SAT Moreno | 14 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 33 |
| 2 | Defensores Glew | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 32 |
| 3 | Deportivo Metalúrgico | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 32 |
| 4 | Barrancas UMET | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 31 |
| 5 | Uribelarrea | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 29 |
| 6 | Ezeiza | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 26 |
| 7 | Buenos Aires City | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 8 | Náutico Hacoaj | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 24 |
| 9 | Belgrano Zárate | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 22 |
| 10 | Alumni Los Hornos | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 18 |
| 11 | Control Orientado | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 18 |
| 12 | Estrella de Berisso | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 15 |
| 13 | Everton La Plata | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 14 |
| 14 | Las Mandarinas | 16 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 14 |
| 15 | Atlético Pilar | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 9 |
| 16 | Juventud de Bernal | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 8 |
| 17 | Provincial | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 7 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Defensores Glew | 14 | 37 | 8 | +29 | 32 |
| 2 | Deportivo Metalúrgico | 14 | 32 | 10 | +22 | 32 |
| 3 | SAT Moreno | 14 | 24 | 9 | +15 | 33 |
| 4 | Náutico Hacoaj | 14 | 24 | 11 | +13 | 24 |
| 5 | Uribelarrea | 16 | 19 | 11 | +8 | 29 |
| 6 | Buenos Aires City | 16 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 25 |
| 7 | Ezeiza | 16 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 26 |
| 8 | Estrella de Berisso | 14 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 15 |
| 9 | Barrancas UMET | 16 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 31 |
| 10 | Alumni Los Hornos | 16 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 18 |
| 11 | Control Orientado | 16 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 18 |
| 12 | Las Mandarinas | 16 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 14 |
| 13 | Belgrano Zárate | 16 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 22 |
| 14 | Atlético Pilar | 14 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 9 |
| 15 | Juventud de Bernal | 14 | 10 | 41 | -31 | 8 |
| 16 | Provincial | 14 | 9 | 38 | -29 | 7 |
| 17 | Everton La Plata | 16 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 14 |
