The model missed the final outcome (MSP Batna win 0–1).
The model had projected CA Batna at 43.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 CA Batna MSP Batna ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-1 ✔ Correcto
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was MSP Batna win 0–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Oct 02, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · CA Batna 1.48 — MSP Batna 1.12
-
Oct 02, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result MSP Batna win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
MSP Batna win · CA Batna 0–1 MSP Batna
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"api_prediction": {
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"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "CA Batna"
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"away_xg": 1.12,
"betting_insight": {
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"main_pick_meta": {
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
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],
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},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_score_rate": 67.4,
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"home_played": 2,
"home_score_rate": 77.2,
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"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 53.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
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},
"correct_score": {
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{
"away": 0,
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"label": "1-0",
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{
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{
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"label": "0-1",
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{
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"label": "2-0",
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}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
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"key": "1X",
"label": "CA Batna or Draw",
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},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "CA Batna or MSP Batna",
"prob": 70.9
},
{
"key": "X2",
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}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "CA Batna or Draw",
"pick_prob": 72.9
},
"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 29.1,
"home_pct": 43.8,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "CA Batna"
},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 2.6,
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"confidence": "low",
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"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
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"total_expected": 2.6,
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
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"edge": 6.5,
"implied_prob": 25.4,
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"label": "Away",
"market": "MSP Batna Win",
"model_prob": 27.1,
"odds": 3.93
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-02 13:59:48",
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"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-02 13:30:15",
"has_data": true,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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}
]
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},
"ev_available": true,
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"text": "-22.5%"
},
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},
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"id": "btts",
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{
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},
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},
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"raw_pct": 15.7,
"text": "+15.7%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1453,
"ev_under_display": {
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"raw_pct": -14.5,
"text": "-14.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10141.12,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward MSP Batna, but the model still strongly favours CA Batna.",
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1383,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.8,
"text": "-13.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.463,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0619,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.2,
"text": "-6.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4385,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1581,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "CA Batna",
"sort_key": 1784.525,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 816.9,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.3
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -40.0%",
"alert_team": "MSP Batna",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 4.5,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 4.45,
"hero_label": "MSP Batna",
"market_prob_pct": 46.3,
"market_team": "CA Batna",
"model_prob_pct": 43.8,
"model_team": "CA Batna",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 95,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward MSP Batna, but the model still strongly favours CA Batna."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward MSP Batna, but the model still strongly favours CA Batna."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1568,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1568,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates CA Batna at 43.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies CA Batna as the value side (43.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward MSP Batna, but the model still strongly favours CA Batna.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "CA Batna",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +15.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +15.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +15.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+15.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward MSP Batna, but the model still strongly favours CA Batna.",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward MSP Batna, but the model still strongly favours CA Batna.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1383,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.463,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4385,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5208333333333334,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1581,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 9.6,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.36
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8571428571428571,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.6,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 78,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.45,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.45,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.12,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 10.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.48,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.48,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.48 \u00b7 Away xG 1.12 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +10%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -40.0,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -40.0%",
"steam_team": "MSP Batna",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 43,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward MSP Batna, but the model still strongly favours CA Batna.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward MSP Batna, but the model still strongly favours CA Batna."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward MSP Batna, but the model still strongly favours CA Batna."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1568,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1568,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates CA Batna at 43.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies CA Batna as the value side (43.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward MSP Batna, but the model still strongly favours CA Batna.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "CA Batna",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +15.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +15.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +15.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+15.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward MSP Batna, but the model still strongly favours CA Batna.",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward MSP Batna, but the model still strongly favours CA Batna.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1383,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.463,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4385,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5208333333333334,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1581,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 9.6,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.36
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward MSP Batna, but the model still strongly favours CA Batna.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: CA Batna 1.48 xG vs MSP Batna 1.12 \u2192 CA Batna 43.8%",
"Market: CA Batna ~46.3% implied",
"Market Steam: MSP Batna \u2193 -40.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours CA Batna, but sharp money moved toward MSP Batna.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.46,
"fair_prob": 43.84,
"label": "CA Batna",
"market_prob": 46.3,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.99,
"fair_prob": 29.09,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 31.08,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.45,
"fair_prob": 27.07,
"label": "MSP Batna",
"market_prob": 22.62,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.8,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 40.4,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.8,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.6,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.43,
"fair_prob": 53.6,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 44.17,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.43,
"fair_prob": 46.4,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 55.83,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 4.45,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.07,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "MSP Batna",
"market_prob_pct": 22.62,
"status": "market_efficient",
"steam_team_name": "MSP Batna"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "market_efficient",
"max_gap_pp": 4.45,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "CA Batna",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 46.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-2.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -2.5,
"model_prob_pct": 43.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-2.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -2.5,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 78,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward MSP Batna, but the model still strongly favours CA Batna. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 43,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: CA Batna 1.48 xG vs MSP Batna 1.12 \u2192 CA Batna 43.8%",
"Market: CA Batna ~46.3% implied",
"Market Steam: MSP Batna \u2193 -40.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours CA Batna, but sharp money moved toward MSP Batna.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 4.45,
"hero_label": "MSP Batna",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "MSP Batna odds shortened \u2193 -40.0%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on MSP Batna.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on MSP Batna."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on MSP Batna (\u2193 -40.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/7) supports the current market view on MSP Batna."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.45,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 14.8 pp (at 43.8%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 14.8,
"max_prob_pct": 43.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "MSP Batna",
"largest_gap_pp": 4.5,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.5,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -2.46,
"edge_pp": -2.46,
"fair_prob_pct": 43.84,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "CA Batna",
"market_prob_pct": 46.3,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.99,
"edge_pp": -1.99,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.09,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 31.08,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.45,
"edge_pp": 4.45,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.07,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "MSP Batna",
"market_prob_pct": 22.62,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_efficient",
"status_label": "Market Efficient",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on MSP Batna.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers CA Batna (46.3%).",
"However, MSP Batna has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -40.0%, 6/7).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 CA Batna, Market \u2192 CA Batna, Recent sharp money \u2192 MSP Batna.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 25.45,
"closing_odds": 3.93,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 25.45,
"entry_odds": 3.93,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -40.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -40.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -35.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -35.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -30.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -30.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -30.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -30.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -16.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -16.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.9
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "6/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.5,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -40.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 40.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 25h 2m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"6/7 books synchronized on MSP Batna (40.0% steam, score 95) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -40.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"7.50",
"5.71",
"3.93"
],
"display": "7.50 \u2192 3.90 \u2192 4.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 25h 2m",
"pick_team": "MSP Batna",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "7.50"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.90"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
7.5,
3.93,
4.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,15.1",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "7.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.93"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "7.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 7.5,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: MSP Batna \u2193 -40.0% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "MSP Batna",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: MSP Batna \u2193 -40.0% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.5,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -40.0%",
"open_odds": 7.5,
"summary": "Market moved toward MSP Batna while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "MSP Batna",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 95,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/7",
"current_odds": 4.5,
"move_display": "\u2193 -40.0%",
"open_odds": 7.5,
"pick_team": "MSP Batna",
"steam_score": 95,
"steam_team_name": "MSP Batna",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "msp-batna",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "MSP Batna",
"away_team_id": 10712,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/10712.webp",
"away_team_name": "MSP Batna",
"away_team_public_id": "1JaR6DNPzNtpzp",
"away_team_slug": "msp-batna",
"country_code": "DZ",
"country_display_name": "Algeria",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/dz.svg",
"country_id": 2,
"country_name": "Algeria",
"fixture_id": 1641992,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Algeria",
"home_team_display_name": "CA Batna",
"home_team_id": 922,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/922.webp",
"home_team_name": "CA Batna",
"home_team_public_id": "3t12URqdOlHMVo",
"home_team_slug": "ca-batna",
"ht.home_team_slug": "ca-batna",
"league_country": "Algeria",
"league_country_display": "Algeria",
"league_display_name": "Ligue 2 de Argelia",
"league_id": 187,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/187.webp",
"league_name": "Ligue 2 de Argelia",
"league_public_id": "1UI0IeYVucmepu",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-02 14:00:00",
"public_id": "5fkhDbDInasg7M",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2799,
"best_odd": 3.93,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0125,
"ev": -0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.2262,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2262,
"draw": 0.3108,
"home": 0.463
},
"model_prob": 0.2709,
"p_final": 0.2387
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4364,
"best_odd": 2.86,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0088,
"ev": -0.1363,
"implied_prob": 0.3108,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2262,
"draw": 0.3108,
"home": 0.463
},
"model_prob": 0.2906,
"p_final": 0.302
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5779,
"best_odd": 1.92,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0142,
"ev": -0.1383,
"implied_prob": 0.463,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2262,
"draw": 0.3108,
"home": 0.463
},
"model_prob": 0.4385,
"p_final": 0.4488
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.93,
"edge": 0.0165,
"ev": 0.0647,
"implied_prob": 0.2545,
"model_prob": 0.2709
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.86,
"edge": -0.059,
"ev": -0.1689,
"implied_prob": 0.3497,
"model_prob": 0.2906
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.92,
"edge": -0.0824,
"ev": -0.1581,
"implied_prob": 0.5208,
"model_prob": 0.4385
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2145,
"alpha_yes": 0.195,
"best_no_odd": 1.67,
"best_yes_odd": 2.15,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0943,
"edge_yes": 0.0943,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2251,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1193,
"ev_yes": 0.1524,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0525,
"implied_no": 0.5583,
"implied_yes": 0.4417,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2145,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0191,
"ev": -0.1193,
"implied_prob": 0.5528,
"model_prob": 0.464,
"p_final": 0.5338
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.195,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0173,
"ev": -0.0525,
"implied_prob": 0.4472,
"model_prob": 0.536,
"p_final": 0.4645
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.5338,
"p_final_yes": 0.4645,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1578,
"alpha_under": 0.217,
"best_over_odd": 2.4,
"best_under_odd": 1.65,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.26,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.505,
"edge_over": 0.078,
"edge_under": -0.078,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1568,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0673,
"ev_under": -0.1453,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1235,
"implied_over": 0.404,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3997,
"implied_under": 0.596,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6003,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1578,
"best_odd": 2.26,
"edge": 0.013,
"ev": -0.0673,
"implied_prob": 0.3997,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4127
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.217,
"best_odd": 1.505,
"edge": -0.0178,
"ev": -0.1235,
"implied_prob": 0.6003,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5824
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4127,
"p_final_under": 0.5824,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1568,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1568,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1568,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.5,
"summary": "The market has moved toward MSP Batna, but the model still strongly favours CA Batna."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1568,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1568,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates CA Batna at 43.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies CA Batna as the value side (43.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward MSP Batna, but the model still strongly favours CA Batna.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "CA Batna",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +15.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +15.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +15.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+15.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward MSP Batna, but the model still strongly favours CA Batna.",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward MSP Batna, but the model still strongly favours CA Batna.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1383,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.463,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4385,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5208333333333334,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1581,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 9.6,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.36
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.536,
"draw_prob": 0.2906,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4385,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.36
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0142,
"ev": -0.1383,
"implied_prob": 0.463,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4385,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "CA Batna"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.195,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0173,
"market_prob": 0.4472,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.536,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2145,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.0191,
"ev": -0.1193,
"implied_prob": 0.5528,
"model_prob": 0.464,
"p_final": 0.5338
},
"p_final": 0.4645,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0525,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.195,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0173,
"ev": -0.0525,
"implied_prob": 0.4472,
"model_prob": 0.536,
"p_final": 0.4645
}
},
"edge": 0.0943,
"ev": 0.1524,
"implied_prob": 0.4417,
"model_prob": 0.536,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1578,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.26,
"edge": 0.013,
"market_prob": 0.3997,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1578,
"best_odd": 2.26,
"edge": 0.013,
"ev": -0.0673,
"implied_prob": 0.3997,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4127
},
"p_final": 0.4127,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0673,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.217,
"best_odd": 1.505,
"edge": -0.0178,
"ev": -0.1235,
"implied_prob": 0.6003,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5824
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.078,
"ev": 0.1568,
"implied_prob": 0.404,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1641992,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1568,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2709,
"draw": 0.2906,
"home": 0.4385
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1568,
"implied_prob": 0.404,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1568,
"implied_prob": 0.404,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "MSP Batna",
"home": "CA Batna"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.081686,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1524,
"implied_prob": 0.4417,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.536,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1383,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.463,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4385,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5208333333333334,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1581,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-15.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1641992,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-02T13:59:50.666105+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Ligue 2 de Argelia — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | USM Annaba | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | JSM Skikda | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | NC Magra | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Azazga | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 5 | MO Constantine | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | MSP Batna | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | Khroub | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 | MO Béjaïa | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Paradou AC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | NRB Beni Oulbane | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | IRB Nezla | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | US Chaouia | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 13 | JS Jijel | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 14 | Teleghma | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 15 | CA Batna | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 16 | CR Béni Thour | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | USM Annaba | 3 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 6 |
| 2 | JSM Skikda | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 6 |
| 3 | MO Béjaïa | 2 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 4 |
| 4 | Azazga | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 5 |
| 5 | Paradou AC | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | NC Magra | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 7 | Teleghma | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 1 |
| 8 | MO Constantine | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 9 | MSP Batna | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 10 | NRB Beni Oulbane | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | CA Batna | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 |
| 12 | CR Béni Thour | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 |
| 13 | Khroub | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 5 |
| 14 | IRB Nezla | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 15 | US Chaouia | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 |
| 16 | JS Jijel | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
