AI correctly predicted the Rahimo win.
The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
A
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Rahimo Rahimo ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 1-2 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFFEB | 30.1% | 28.1% | +2.1 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.4% | 32.1% | -2.6 pp | Aligned |
| Rahimo | 40.4% | 39.9% | +0.5 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Rahimo win 1–2).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Rahimo win 1–2).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · CFFEB 30.1% · Draw 29.4% · Rahimo 40.5%
- xG · CFFEB 1.19 — Rahimo 1.41
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 15:04 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · CFFEB 3.20 · Draw 2.80 · Rahimo 2.25
- Implied 1X2 · CFFEB 28.1% · Draw 32.1% · Rahimo 39.9%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · CFFEB 3.20 · Draw 2.80 · Rahimo 2.25
- Implied 1X2 · CFFEB 28.1% · Draw 32.1% · Rahimo 39.9%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Rahimo win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
78/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
86/100
Betting Confidence
81/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.8
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Rahimo win · CFFEB 1–2 Rahimo
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
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{
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"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
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},
{
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"label": "ConsEV",
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"value": "+32.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
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"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
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"ok": true,
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],
"passed": 8,
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},
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"reasons": [
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"Decision strength: 8.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0965,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3989,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4444444444444444,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0892,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "4/4",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 86,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 2.62,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 2.62,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.41,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.19,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.41,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.19 \u00b7 Away xG 1.41 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "CFFEB",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 97,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 97,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Rahimo).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Rahimo)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Rahimo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3255,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3255,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Rahimo at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Rahimo as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Rahimo",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Rahimo).",
"Decision strength: 8.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0965,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3989,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4444444444444444,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0892,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: CFFEB 1.19 xG vs Rahimo 1.41 \u2192 Rahimo 40.4%",
"Market: Rahimo ~39.9% implied",
"Market Steam: CFFEB +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Rahimo with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 2.09,
"fair_prob": 30.14,
"label": "CFFEB",
"market_prob": 28.05,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.62,
"fair_prob": 29.44,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 32.06,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.53,
"fair_prob": 40.42,
"label": "Rahimo",
"market_prob": 39.89,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.23,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 34.97,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.23,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 65.03,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.57,
"fair_prob": 54.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 42.63,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.57,
"fair_prob": 45.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 57.37,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -2.62,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.44,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.06,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "CFFEB"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.62,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Rahimo",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 39.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+0.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 0.5,
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+0.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 0.5,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 86,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Rahimo \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 97,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 97,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: CFFEB 1.19 xG vs Rahimo 1.41 \u2192 Rahimo 40.4%",
"Market: Rahimo ~39.9% implied",
"Market Steam: CFFEB +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Rahimo with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.62,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, CFFEB has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on CFFEB.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, CFFEB has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market activity is currently concentrated on CFFEB."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, CFFEB has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (4/4) supports the current market view on CFFEB."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 2.62,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 10.3 pp (at 40.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 10.3,
"max_prob_pct": 40.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": -2.6,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.6,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 2.09,
"edge_pp": 2.09,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.14,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "CFFEB",
"market_prob_pct": 28.05,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.62,
"edge_pp": -2.62,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.44,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.06,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.53,
"edge_pp": 0.53,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.42,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Rahimo",
"market_prob_pct": 39.89,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on CFFEB.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Rahimo (39.9%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Rahimo, Market \u2192 Rahimo, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 35.71,
"closing_odds": 2.8,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 35.71,
"entry_odds": 2.8,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/4",
"current_odds": 3.2,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 3.2,
"pick_team": "CFFEB",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_team_name": "CFFEB",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 2.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "rahimo",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Rahimo",
"away_team_id": 6430,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6430.webp",
"away_team_name": "Rahimo",
"away_team_public_id": "3zXn9ZME3ERtct",
"away_team_slug": "rahimo",
"country_code": "BF",
"country_display_name": "Burkina-Faso",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/bf.svg",
"country_id": 26,
"country_name": "Burkina-Faso",
"fixture_id": 1641846,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Burkina Faso",
"home_team_display_name": "CFFEB",
"home_team_id": 26633,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/26633.webp",
"home_team_name": "CFFEB",
"home_team_public_id": "1ysiLOHoDiBIJA",
"home_team_slug": "cffeb",
"ht.home_team_slug": "cffeb",
"league_country": "Burkina-Faso",
"league_country_display": "Burkina-Faso",
"league_display_name": "Ligue 1 de Burkina Faso",
"league_id": 423,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/423.webp",
"league_name": "Ligue 1 de Burkina Faso",
"league_public_id": "1ZmsG6rqlHTJbk",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 15:30:00",
"public_id": "5HXWwsgIW2JjNx",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.446,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0026,
"ev": -0.0965,
"implied_prob": 0.3989,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3989,
"draw": 0.3206,
"home": 0.2805
},
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"p_final": 0.4015
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4321,
"best_odd": 2.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0115,
"ev": -0.1345,
"implied_prob": 0.3206,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3989,
"draw": 0.3206,
"home": 0.2805
},
"model_prob": 0.2941,
"p_final": 0.3091
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2907,
"best_odd": 3.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.006,
"ev": -0.0832,
"implied_prob": 0.2805,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3989,
"draw": 0.3206,
"home": 0.2805
},
"model_prob": 0.3012,
"p_final": 0.2865
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": -0.0397,
"ev": -0.0892,
"implied_prob": 0.4444,
"model_prob": 0.4048
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.8,
"edge": -0.0631,
"ev": -0.1766,
"implied_prob": 0.3571,
"model_prob": 0.2941
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.2,
"edge": -0.0113,
"ev": -0.0363,
"implied_prob": 0.3125,
"model_prob": 0.3012
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2055,
"alpha_yes": 0.1868,
"best_no_odd": 1.61,
"best_yes_odd": 2.2,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1157,
"edge_yes": 0.1157,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2626,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1235,
"ev_yes": 0.1924,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0413,
"implied_no": 0.5737,
"implied_yes": 0.4263,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2055,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0232,
"ev": -0.1235,
"implied_prob": 0.571,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.5478
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1868,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": 0.0211,
"ev": -0.0413,
"implied_prob": 0.429,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.4501
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.5478,
"p_final_yes": 0.4501,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1446,
"alpha_under": 0.1988,
"best_over_odd": 2.75,
"best_under_odd": 1.44,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.59,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.4,
"edge_over": 0.1323,
"edge_under": -0.1323,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.3255,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0421,
"ev_under": -0.2541,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1277,
"implied_over": 0.3497,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3509,
"implied_under": 0.6503,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6491,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1446,
"best_odd": 2.59,
"edge": 0.019,
"ev": -0.0421,
"implied_prob": 0.3509,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3698
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1988,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0261,
"ev": -0.1277,
"implied_prob": 0.6491,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6231
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3698,
"p_final_under": 0.6231,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3255,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3255,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3255,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 8.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 8.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.0
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Rahimo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3255,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3255,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Rahimo at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 39.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Rahimo as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Rahimo",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Rahimo).",
"Decision strength: 8.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0965,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3989,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4444444444444444,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0892,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"draw_prob": 0.2941,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4048,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.22
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0026,
"ev": -0.0965,
"implied_prob": 0.3989,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Rahimo"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1868,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"edge": 0.0211,
"market_prob": 0.429,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.542,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2055,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0232,
"ev": -0.1235,
"implied_prob": 0.571,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.5478
},
"p_final": 0.4501,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0413,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1868,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": 0.0211,
"ev": -0.0413,
"implied_prob": 0.429,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.4501
}
},
"edge": 0.1157,
"ev": 0.1924,
"implied_prob": 0.4263,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1446,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.59,
"edge": 0.019,
"market_prob": 0.3509,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1446,
"best_odd": 2.59,
"edge": 0.019,
"ev": -0.0421,
"implied_prob": 0.3509,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3698
},
"p_final": 0.3698,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0421,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1988,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0261,
"ev": -0.1277,
"implied_prob": 0.6491,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6231
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1323,
"ev": 0.3255,
"implied_prob": 0.3497,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1641846,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3255,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4048,
"draw": 0.2941,
"home": 0.3012
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1924,
"implied_prob": 0.4263,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.542,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1924,
"implied_prob": 0.4263,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.542,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Rahimo",
"home": "CFFEB"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.109824,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3255,
"implied_prob": 0.3497,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0965,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3989,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4444444444444444,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0892,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1641846,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T15:30:28.583592+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Ligue 1 de Burkina Faso — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rahimo | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | FocuSport | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | ASFA-Yennenga | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | USFA | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Comoé | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Majestic | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | RCK | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | ASFB | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Salitas | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Vitesse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Sporting Cascades | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | CFFEB | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 13 | Maya | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 14 | Réal du Faso | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 15 | Douanes | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 | SONABEL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rahimo | 2 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 6 |
| 2 | FocuSport | 2 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 6 |
| 3 | RCK | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | ASFB | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | Salitas | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Vitesse | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Réal du Faso | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 |
| 8 | SONABEL | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 |
| 9 | ASFA-Yennenga | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 10 | USFA | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 11 | Comoé | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Majestic | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 | CFFEB | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1 |
| 14 | Maya | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Sporting Cascades | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 16 | Douanes | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
