The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Grêmio Prudente at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (0 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Grêmio Prudente Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grêmio Prudente | 39.5% | 43.4% | -3.9 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.5% | 30.6% | -1.1 pp | Aligned |
| União São João | 31.0% | 26.0% | +5.0 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates União São João's win probability at 31.0%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 26.0%, a difference of 5.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on União São João.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Grêmio Prudente by 5.0 percentage points (34.5% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Grêmio Prudente 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · União São João 31.0%
- xG · Grêmio Prudente 1.39 — União São João 1.21
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 19:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Grêmio Prudente 2.05 · Draw 2.90 · União São João 3.42
- Implied 1X2 · Grêmio Prudente 43.4% · Draw 30.6% · União São João 26.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Grêmio Prudente 2.05 · Draw 2.90 · União São João 3.42
- Implied 1X2 · Grêmio Prudente 43.4% · Draw 30.6% · União São João 26.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
74/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.42
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Grêmio Prudente 0–0 União São João
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
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"alignment": {
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},
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"final_verdict_audit": {
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"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Gr\u00eamio Prudente at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.4%.",
"why": [
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
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}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
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"model_lean": "Gr\u00eamio Prudente",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Gr\u00eamio Prudente).",
"Decision strength: 6.3/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1447,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4336,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48780487804878053,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1905,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "7/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.875,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.8,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 83,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.04,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.04,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.21,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.39,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.39,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.39 \u00b7 Away xG 1.21 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Gr\u00eamio Prudente",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Gr\u00eamio Prudente).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Gr\u00eamio Prudente)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Gr\u00eamio Prudente)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0893,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0893,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.3,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Gr\u00eamio Prudente at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Gr\u00eamio Prudente as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Gr\u00eamio Prudente",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Gr\u00eamio Prudente).",
"Decision strength: 6.3/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1447,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4336,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48780487804878053,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1905,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Gr\u00eamio Prudente 1.39 xG vs Uni\u00e3o S\u00e3o Jo\u00e3o 1.21 \u2192 Gr\u00eamio Prudente 39.5%",
"Market: Gr\u00eamio Prudente ~43.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Gr\u00eamio Prudente +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Gr\u00eamio Prudente with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -3.9,
"fair_prob": 39.46,
"label": "Gr\u00eamio Prudente",
"market_prob": 43.36,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.14,
"fair_prob": 29.51,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.65,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.04,
"fair_prob": 31.03,
"label": "Uni\u00e3o S\u00e3o Jo\u00e3o",
"market_prob": 25.99,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.72,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.48,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.72,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.52,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.03,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 47.27,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.03,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 52.73,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 5.04,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Uni\u00e3o S\u00e3o Jo\u00e3o",
"market_prob_pct": 25.99,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Gr\u00eamio Prudente"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Uni\u00e3o S\u00e3o Jo\u00e3o\u0027s win probability at 31.0%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 26.0%, a difference of 5.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 5.04,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Gr\u00eamio Prudente",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 43.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-3.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -3.9,
"model_prob_pct": 39.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-3.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -3.9,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 83,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Gr\u00eamio Prudente \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Gr\u00eamio Prudente 1.39 xG vs Uni\u00e3o S\u00e3o Jo\u00e3o 1.21 \u2192 Gr\u00eamio Prudente 39.5%",
"Market: Gr\u00eamio Prudente ~43.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Gr\u00eamio Prudente +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Gr\u00eamio Prudente with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.04,
"hero_label": "Uni\u00e3o S\u00e3o Jo\u00e3o",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Gr\u00eamio Prudente has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Uni\u00e3o S\u00e3o Jo\u00e3o.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Gr\u00eamio Prudente.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Uni\u00e3o S\u00e3o Jo\u00e3o.",
"However, Gr\u00eamio Prudente has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market activity is currently concentrated on Gr\u00eamio Prudente."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Uni\u00e3o S\u00e3o Jo\u00e3o.",
"At the same time, Gr\u00eamio Prudente has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/8) supports the current market view on Gr\u00eamio Prudente."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.04,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.4 pp (at 39.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Uni\u00e3o S\u00e3o Jo\u00e3o",
"largest_gap_pp": 5.0,
"lead": "The model rates Uni\u00e3o S\u00e3o Jo\u00e3o considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.0,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -3.9,
"edge_pp": -3.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.46,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Gr\u00eamio Prudente",
"market_prob_pct": 43.36,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.14,
"edge_pp": -1.14,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.51,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.65,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.04,
"edge_pp": 5.04,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.03,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Uni\u00e3o S\u00e3o Jo\u00e3o",
"market_prob_pct": 25.99,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Gr\u00eamio Prudente.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Gr\u00eamio Prudente (43.4%).",
"Gr\u00eamio Prudente \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 29.24,
"closing_odds": 3.42,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 29.24,
"entry_odds": 3.42,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"current_odds": 2.0,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"pick_team": "Gr\u00eamio Prudente",
"steam_score": 36,
"steam_team_name": "Gr\u00eamio Prudente",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "uniao-sao-joao",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Uni\u00e3o S\u00e3o Jo\u00e3o",
"away_team_id": 22852,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/22852.webp",
"away_team_name": "Uni\u00e3o S\u00e3o Jo\u00e3o",
"away_team_public_id": "1miP6cuF5tkAOm",
"away_team_slug": "uniao-sao-joao",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_display_name": "Brazil",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_id": 24,
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1641146,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_display_name": "Gr\u00eamio Prudente",
"home_team_id": 20713,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/20713.webp",
"home_team_name": "Gr\u00eamio Prudente",
"home_team_public_id": "28v0kATYJXxAGV",
"home_team_slug": "gremio-prudente",
"ht.home_team_slug": "gremio-prudente",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_country_display": "Brazil",
"league_display_name": "Copa Paulista",
"league_id": 742,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/742.webp",
"league_name": "Copa Paulista",
"league_public_id": "1Zy7Ah1ouB9Qne",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 20:00:00",
"public_id": "01CHph65BtTo23",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Presidente Prudente",
"venue_name": "Estadio Paulo Constantino"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2773,
"best_odd": 3.42,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.014,
"ev": -0.0633,
"implied_prob": 0.2599,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2599,
"draw": 0.3065,
"home": 0.4336
},
"model_prob": 0.3103,
"p_final": 0.2739
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4421,
"best_odd": 2.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0052,
"ev": -0.1262,
"implied_prob": 0.3065,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2599,
"draw": 0.3065,
"home": 0.4336
},
"model_prob": 0.2947,
"p_final": 0.3013
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4239,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0164,
"ev": -0.1447,
"implied_prob": 0.4336,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2599,
"draw": 0.3065,
"home": 0.4336
},
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"p_final": 0.4172
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.42,
"edge": 0.0179,
"ev": 0.0613,
"implied_prob": 0.2924,
"model_prob": 0.3103
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.9,
"edge": -0.0501,
"ev": -0.1452,
"implied_prob": 0.3448,
"model_prob": 0.2947
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": -0.0929,
"ev": -0.1904,
"implied_prob": 0.4878,
"model_prob": 0.3949
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2217,
"alpha_yes": 0.2015,
"best_no_odd": 1.75,
"best_yes_odd": 1.95,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0703,
"edge_yes": 0.0703,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2002,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1131,
"ev_yes": 0.0588,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0593,
"implied_no": 0.5273,
"implied_yes": 0.4727,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2217,
"best_odd": 1.735,
"edge": -0.0154,
"ev": -0.1131,
"implied_prob": 0.5266,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.5112
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2015,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": 0.014,
"ev": -0.0593,
"implied_prob": 0.4734,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.4874
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.5112,
"p_final_yes": 0.4874,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1613,
"alpha_under": 0.2218,
"best_over_odd": 2.26,
"best_under_odd": 1.62,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.22,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.56,
"edge_over": 0.0672,
"edge_under": -0.0672,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0893,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.059,
"ev_under": -0.1608,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1078,
"implied_over": 0.4148,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4127,
"implied_under": 0.5852,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5873,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1613,
"best_odd": 2.22,
"edge": 0.0112,
"ev": -0.059,
"implied_prob": 0.4127,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4239
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2218,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": -0.0154,
"ev": -0.1078,
"implied_prob": 0.5873,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5719
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4239,
"p_final_under": 0.5719,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0893,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0893,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0893,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.3,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.3,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.3,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.3
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Gr\u00eamio Prudente)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0893,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0893,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.3,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Gr\u00eamio Prudente at 39.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Gr\u00eamio Prudente as the value side (39.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Gr\u00eamio Prudente",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Gr\u00eamio Prudente).",
"Decision strength: 6.3/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1447,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4336,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48780487804878053,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1905,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.18"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.18
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2947,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3949,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.18
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0164,
"ev": -0.1447,
"implied_prob": 0.4336,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Gr\u00eamio Prudente"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2015,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"edge": 0.014,
"market_prob": 0.4734,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2217,
"best_odd": 1.735,
"edge": -0.0154,
"ev": -0.1131,
"implied_prob": 0.5266,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.5112
},
"p_final": 0.4874,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0593,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2015,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": 0.014,
"ev": -0.0593,
"implied_prob": 0.4734,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.4874
}
},
"edge": 0.0703,
"ev": 0.0588,
"implied_prob": 0.4727,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1613,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"edge": 0.0112,
"market_prob": 0.4127,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1613,
"best_odd": 2.22,
"edge": 0.0112,
"ev": -0.059,
"implied_prob": 0.4127,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4239
},
"p_final": 0.4239,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.059,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2218,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": -0.0154,
"ev": -0.1078,
"implied_prob": 0.5873,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5719
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0672,
"ev": 0.0893,
"implied_prob": 0.4148,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1641146,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0893,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3103,
"draw": 0.2947,
"home": 0.3949
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Uni\u00e3o S\u00e3o Jo\u00e3o",
"home": "Gr\u00eamio Prudente"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.031928,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0588,
"implied_prob": 0.4727,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1447,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4336,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3949,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48780487804878053,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1905,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1641146,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T19:59:58.954658+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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