AI correctly predicted the Montevideo Wanderers win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
A
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montevideo Wanderers | 36.1% | 38.8% | -2.7 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 31.6% | -2.0 pp | Aligned |
| Albion FC | 34.2% | 29.6% | +4.7 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Montevideo Wanderers win 2–1).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Montevideo Wanderers win 2–1).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 28, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Montevideo Wanderers 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Albion FC 34.2%
- xG · Montevideo Wanderers 1.32 — Albion FC 1.28
-
Sep 28, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Montevideo Wanderers 2.46 · Draw 3.02 · Albion FC 3.23
- Implied 1X2 · Montevideo Wanderers 38.8% · Draw 31.6% · Albion FC 29.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 28, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Montevideo Wanderers 2.46 · Draw 3.02 · Albion FC 3.23
- Implied 1X2 · Montevideo Wanderers 38.8% · Draw 31.6% · Albion FC 29.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 28, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Montevideo Wanderers win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
76/100
Betting Confidence
80/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.23
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Montevideo Wanderers win · Montevideo Wanderers 2–1 Albion FC
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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],
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"alert_breadth_note": "7/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -9.7%",
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"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
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"show": true,
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"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
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"title": "Betting Signal"
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},
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},
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"action_label": "Action",
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"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Montevideo Wanderers at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.8%.",
"why": [
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"text": "Decision Model identifies Montevideo Wanderers as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
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},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
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],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.7,
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],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Albion FC, but the model still strongly favours Montevideo Wanderers.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Montevideo Wanderers",
"no_primary_reasons": {
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],
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"codes": [
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],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
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"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Montevideo Wanderers \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.06 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +11% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1641142 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.06 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Albion FC, but the model still strongly favours Montevideo Wanderers.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +11% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Albion FC, but the model still strongly favours Montevideo Wanderers.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.074,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.46,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3882,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4065040650406504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1122,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "7/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7777777777777778,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.8,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 77,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.68,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.68,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.7,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -9.7%",
"steam_team": "Albion FC",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Albion FC, but the model still strongly favours Montevideo Wanderers.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Albion FC, but the model still strongly favours Montevideo Wanderers."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Albion FC, but the model still strongly favours Montevideo Wanderers."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0508,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1059,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Montevideo Wanderers at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Montevideo Wanderers as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Albion FC, but the model still strongly favours Montevideo Wanderers.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Montevideo Wanderers",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Montevideo Wanderers \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.06 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +11% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1641142 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.06 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Albion FC, but the model still strongly favours Montevideo Wanderers.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +11% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Albion FC, but the model still strongly favours Montevideo Wanderers.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.074,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.46,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3882,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4065040650406504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1122,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Albion FC, but the model still strongly favours Montevideo Wanderers.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Montevideo Wanderers 1.32 xG vs Albion FC 1.28 \u2192 Montevideo Wanderers 36.1%",
"Market: Montevideo Wanderers ~38.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Albion FC \u2193 -9.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Montevideo Wanderers, but sharp money moved toward Albion FC.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.71,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Montevideo Wanderers",
"market_prob": 38.82,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.97,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 31.62,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.68,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Albion FC",
"market_prob": 29.56,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.84,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.36,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.84,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.64,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.88,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 51.62,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.88,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 48.38,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 4.68,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Albion FC",
"market_prob_pct": 29.56,
"status": "market_efficient",
"steam_team_name": "Albion FC"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "market_efficient",
"max_gap_pp": 4.68,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Montevideo Wanderers",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 38.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-2.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -2.7,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-2.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -2.7,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 77,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Albion FC, but the model still strongly favours Montevideo Wanderers. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Montevideo Wanderers 1.32 xG vs Albion FC 1.28 \u2192 Montevideo Wanderers 36.1%",
"Market: Montevideo Wanderers ~38.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Albion FC \u2193 -9.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Montevideo Wanderers, but sharp money moved toward Albion FC.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 4.68,
"hero_label": "Albion FC",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Albion FC odds shortened \u2193 -9.7%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Albion FC.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Albion FC."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on Albion FC (\u2193 -9.7%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/9) supports the current market view on Albion FC."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.68,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Albion FC",
"largest_gap_pp": 4.7,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.7,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -2.71,
"edge_pp": -2.71,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Montevideo Wanderers",
"market_prob_pct": 38.82,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.97,
"edge_pp": -1.97,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 31.62,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.68,
"edge_pp": 4.68,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Albion FC",
"market_prob_pct": 29.56,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_efficient",
"status_label": "Market Efficient",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Albion FC.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Montevideo Wanderers (38.8%).",
"However, Albion FC has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -9.7%, 7/9).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Montevideo Wanderers, Market \u2192 Montevideo Wanderers, Recent sharp money \u2192 Albion FC.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 30.96,
"closing_odds": 3.23,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 30.96,
"entry_odds": 3.23,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.7
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.8,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -9.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 9.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 111h 28m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Albion FC (9.7%, 7/9) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.23",
"3.01",
"2.80"
],
"display": "3.23 \u2192 2.80 \u2192 2.80",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 111h 28m",
"pick_team": "Albion FC",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.23"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.80"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.1,
3.23,
2.8
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,5.4 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.23"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.80"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.1,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Albion FC \u2193 -9.7% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Albion FC",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Albion FC \u2193 -9.7% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.8,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -9.7%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"summary": "Market moved toward Albion FC while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Albion FC",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 61,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"current_odds": 2.8,
"move_display": "\u2193 -9.7%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"pick_team": "Albion FC",
"steam_score": 61,
"steam_team_name": "Albion FC",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "albion-fc",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Albion FC",
"away_team_id": 2378,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2378.webp",
"away_team_name": "Albion FC",
"away_team_public_id": "5DFFb5DCr9K5gV",
"away_team_slug": "albion-fc",
"country_code": "UY",
"country_display_name": "Uruguay",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/uy.svg",
"country_id": 162,
"country_name": "Uruguay",
"fixture_id": 1641142,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Uruguay",
"home_team_display_name": "Montevideo Wanderers",
"home_team_id": 2360,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2360.webp",
"home_team_name": "Montevideo Wanderers",
"home_team_public_id": "54eGZHeRhVcnI4",
"home_team_slug": "wanderers",
"ht.home_team_slug": "wanderers",
"league_country": "Uruguay",
"league_country_display": "Uruguay",
"league_display_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n - Apertura (Uruguay) - Apertura",
"league_id": 268,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/268.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n - Apertura (Uruguay) - Apertura",
"league_name_canonical": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n - Apertura (Uruguay)",
"league_public_id": "4kidSJ5ECYirOZ",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-28 23:00:00",
"public_id": "5O8JUgP1lkCJPv",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Montevideo",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.279,
"best_odd": 3.23,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.013,
"ev": -0.003,
"implied_prob": 0.2956,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2956,
"draw": 0.3162,
"home": 0.3882
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.3087
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2912,
"best_odd": 3.02,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0057,
"ev": -0.0623,
"implied_prob": 0.3162,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2956,
"draw": 0.3162,
"home": 0.3882
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.3105
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4316,
"best_odd": 2.46,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0118,
"ev": -0.074,
"implied_prob": 0.3882,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2956,
"draw": 0.3162,
"home": 0.3882
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.3764
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.23,
"edge": 0.0328,
"ev": 0.1059,
"implied_prob": 0.3096,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.02,
"edge": -0.0345,
"ev": -0.104,
"implied_prob": 0.3311,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.46,
"edge": -0.0456,
"ev": -0.1121,
"implied_prob": 0.4065,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2148,
"alpha_yes": 0.2148,
"best_no_odd": 2.0,
"best_yes_odd": 1.83,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0288,
"edge_yes": 0.0288,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.09,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0857,
"ev_yes": -0.0026,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0616,
"implied_no": 0.4838,
"implied_yes": 0.5162,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2148,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": -0.0065,
"ev": -0.0857,
"implied_prob": 0.4852,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4787
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2148,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0065,
"ev": -0.0616,
"implied_prob": 0.5148,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5213
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4787,
"p_final_yes": 0.5213,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2261,
"alpha_under": 0.2487,
"best_over_odd": 2.18,
"best_under_odd": 1.8,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.05,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.7,
"edge_over": 0.0284,
"edge_under": -0.0284,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0508,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0574,
"ev_under": -0.0676,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0828,
"implied_over": 0.4536,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4533,
"implied_under": 0.5464,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5467,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2261,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0065,
"ev": -0.0574,
"implied_prob": 0.4533,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4598
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2487,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.0071,
"ev": -0.0828,
"implied_prob": 0.5467,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5395
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4598,
"p_final_under": 0.5395,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0508,
"implied_prob": 0.4536,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "alternative",
"side": "over",
"slot": "alternative"
},
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0508,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1059,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0508,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.1
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.7,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Albion FC, but the model still strongly favours Montevideo Wanderers."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0508,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1059,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Montevideo Wanderers at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Montevideo Wanderers as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Albion FC, but the model still strongly favours Montevideo Wanderers.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Montevideo Wanderers",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Montevideo Wanderers \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.06 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +11% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1641142 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.06 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Albion FC, but the model still strongly favours Montevideo Wanderers.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +11% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Albion FC, but the model still strongly favours Montevideo Wanderers.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.074,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.46,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3882,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4065040650406504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1122,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0508,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4536,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "over",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.46,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0118,
"ev": -0.074,
"implied_prob": 0.3882,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Montevideo Wanderers"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2148,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0065,
"market_prob": 0.5148,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2148,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": -0.0065,
"ev": -0.0857,
"implied_prob": 0.4852,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4787
},
"p_final": 0.5213,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0616,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2148,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": 0.0065,
"ev": -0.0616,
"implied_prob": 0.5148,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5213
}
},
"edge": 0.0288,
"ev": -0.0026,
"implied_prob": 0.5162,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2261,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0065,
"market_prob": 0.4533,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2261,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0065,
"ev": -0.0574,
"implied_prob": 0.4533,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4598
},
"p_final": 0.4598,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0574,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2487,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.0071,
"ev": -0.0828,
"implied_prob": 0.5467,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5395
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0284,
"ev": 0.0508,
"implied_prob": 0.4536,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1641142,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0508,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0508,
"implied_prob": 0.4536,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0508,
"implied_prob": 0.4536,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Albion FC",
"home": "Montevideo Wanderers"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.074,
"consensus_ev_display": "-7.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.46,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3882,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4065040650406504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1122,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1641142,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-28T22:59:20.231228+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Primera División - Apertura (Uruguay) — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Peñarol | 29 | 18 | 5 | 6 | 58 |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 55 |
| 3 | Montevideo City Torque | 29 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 53 |
| 4 | Racing Club de Montevideo | 30 | 14 | 11 | 5 | 53 |
| 5 | Nacional | 30 | 15 | 4 | 11 | 49 |
| 6 | Liverpool Montevideo | 30 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 46 |
| 7 | Montevideo Wanderers | 29 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 44 |
| 8 | Central Español | 30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 38 |
| 9 | Juventud | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 36 |
| 10 | Albion FC | 29 | 9 | 7 | 13 | 34 |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 33 |
| 12 | Cerro | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 33 |
| 13 | Defensor Sporting | 29 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 32 |
| 14 | Boston River | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 30 |
| 15 | Progreso | 30 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 28 |
| 16 | Danubio | 29 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 26 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montevideo City Torque | 29 | 51 | 34 | +17 | 53 |
| 2 | Peñarol | 29 | 48 | 24 | +24 | 58 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 30 | 46 | 27 | +19 | 55 |
| 4 | Nacional | 30 | 45 | 38 | +7 | 49 |
| 5 | Liverpool Montevideo | 30 | 39 | 28 | +11 | 46 |
| 6 | Albion FC | 29 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 34 |
| 7 | Racing Club de Montevideo | 30 | 36 | 24 | +12 | 53 |
| 8 | Montevideo Wanderers | 29 | 36 | 35 | +1 | 44 |
| 9 | Juventud | 30 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 36 |
| 10 | Central Español | 30 | 32 | 39 | -7 | 38 |
| 11 | Boston River | 30 | 29 | 42 | -13 | 30 |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 30 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 33 |
| 13 | Defensor Sporting | 29 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 32 |
| 14 | Progreso | 30 | 25 | 43 | -18 | 28 |
| 15 | Danubio | 29 | 24 | 38 | -14 | 26 |
| 16 | Cerro | 30 | 23 | 43 | -20 | 33 |
