The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Stade d'Abidjan at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (0 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Stade d'Abidjan Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade d'Abidjan | 36.6% | 43.8% | -7.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 28.1% | +1.6 pp | Aligned |
| Mouna | 33.8% | 28.1% | +5.7 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Stade d'Abidjan's win probability at 43.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 7.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Stade d'Abidjan. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Stade d'Abidjan by 7.2 percentage points (43.9% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 18:02 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Stade d'Abidjan 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Mouna 33.8%
- xG · Stade d'Abidjan 1.33 — Mouna 1.27
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 17:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Stade d'Abidjan 2.05 · Draw 3.20 · Mouna 3.20
- Implied 1X2 · Stade d'Abidjan 43.8% · Draw 28.1% · Mouna 28.1%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 18:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Stade d'Abidjan 2.05 · Draw 3.20 · Mouna 3.20
- Implied 1X2 · Stade d'Abidjan 43.8% · Draw 28.1% · Mouna 28.1%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
63/100
Betting Confidence
78/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.05
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Stade d'Abidjan 0–0 Mouna
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "8eef0a7b80c55f797b2fbe58af1ad11595c69df4c786593710614cd09953e421",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.27,
"away_win_prob": 0.3377,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2964,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.96,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.73,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.33,
"home_win_prob": 0.3659,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Stade d\u0027Abidjan or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "0%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "50%",
"winner_name": "Stade d\u0027Abidjan"
},
"away_xg": 1.27,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Stade d\u0027Abidjan",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0724,
"edge_gap": 0.0284,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4384,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 33.8,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 36.6
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"odd": 2.05
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.05,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"display_market": "Stade d\u0027Abidjan Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.28,
"market_odds": 2.05,
"model_odds": 2.73,
"overround": 11.3,
"prob_edge": -12.2,
"value_pct": -24.9,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 0,
"away_score_rate": 71.9,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 0,
"home_score_rate": 73.6,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.27,
"home_expected": 1.33,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Stade d\u0027Abidjan or Draw",
"prob": 66.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Stade d\u0027Abidjan or Mouna",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Mouna",
"prob": 63.4
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Stade d\u0027Abidjan or Mouna",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 33.8,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 36.6,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Stade d\u0027Abidjan"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"edge": 8.2,
"implied_prob": 31.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Mouna Win",
"model_prob": 33.8,
"odds": 3.2
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Mouna",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 28.08,
"draw": 28.08,
"home": 43.84
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 18:02:50",
"early_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 17:33:00",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Stade d\u0027Abidjan",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.84,
"gap_pp": -7.24,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 36.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.08,
"gap_pp": 1.57,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.08,
"gap_pp": 5.67,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 33.75
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 39.13,
"gap_pp": 9.07,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 60.87,
"gap_pp": -9.07,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.05,
"early": 2.05,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.84,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 43.84,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.2,
"early": 3.2,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.08,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.08,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.2,
"early": 3.2,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.08,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.08,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.38,
"early": 2.38,
"implied_closing_pct": 39.13,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 39.13,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.53,
"early": 1.53,
"implied_closing_pct": 60.87,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 60.87,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.8,
"ev": -0.125,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.33,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1089,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0099,
"edge_pp": 1.0,
"market_prob": 0.3913,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1089,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0099,
"ev": -0.0452,
"implied_prob": 0.3913,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4012
},
"p_final": 0.4012,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1472,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0452,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1497,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0136,
"ev": -0.0895,
"implied_prob": 0.6087,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5951
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1472,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 14.7,
"text": "+14.7%"
},
"ev_under": -0.2075,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.8,
"text": "-20.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1472,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10282.48,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1609,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.1,
"text": "-16.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4384,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0516,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.2,
"text": "-5.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2497,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.0%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Stade d\u0027Abidjan",
"sort_key": 1787.1,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.2,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.25,
"hero_label": "Stade d\u0027Abidjan",
"market_prob_pct": 43.8,
"market_team": "Stade d\u0027Abidjan",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "Stade d\u0027Abidjan",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stade d\u0027Abidjan)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stade d\u0027Abidjan)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1472,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1472,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Stade d\u0027Abidjan at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Stade d\u0027Abidjan as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Stade d\u0027Abidjan",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stade d\u0027Abidjan).",
"Decision strength: 5.6/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1609,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4384,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48780487804878053,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2497,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "1/1",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 83,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.25,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.25,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.27,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.33,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.33 \u00b7 Away xG 1.27 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Stade d\u0027Abidjan",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 64,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 64,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stade d\u0027Abidjan).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stade d\u0027Abidjan)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stade d\u0027Abidjan)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1472,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1472,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Stade d\u0027Abidjan at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Stade d\u0027Abidjan as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Stade d\u0027Abidjan",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stade d\u0027Abidjan).",
"Decision strength: 5.6/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1609,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4384,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48780487804878053,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2497,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Stade d\u0027Abidjan 1.33 xG vs Mouna 1.27 \u2192 Stade d\u0027Abidjan 36.6%",
"Market: Stade d\u0027Abidjan ~43.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Stade d\u0027Abidjan +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Stade d\u0027Abidjan with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -7.25,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Stade d\u0027Abidjan",
"market_prob": 43.84,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.56,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.08,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.69,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Mouna",
"market_prob": 28.08,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.07,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.13,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.07,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.87,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -7.25,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Stade d\u0027Abidjan",
"market_prob_pct": 43.84,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Stade d\u0027Abidjan"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Stade d\u0027Abidjan\u0027s win probability at 43.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 7.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 7.25,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Stade d\u0027Abidjan",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 43.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-7.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -7.2,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-7.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -7.2,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 83,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Stade d\u0027Abidjan \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 64,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 64,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Stade d\u0027Abidjan 1.33 xG vs Mouna 1.27 \u2192 Stade d\u0027Abidjan 36.6%",
"Market: Stade d\u0027Abidjan ~43.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Stade d\u0027Abidjan +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Stade d\u0027Abidjan with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.25,
"hero_label": "Stade d\u0027Abidjan",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Stade d\u0027Abidjan. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Stade d\u0027Abidjan.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Stade d\u0027Abidjan. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Stade d\u0027Abidjan."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Stade d\u0027Abidjan above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Stade d\u0027Abidjan (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (1/1) supports the current market view on Stade d\u0027Abidjan."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.25,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Stade d\u0027Abidjan",
"largest_gap_pp": -7.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices Stade d\u0027Abidjan higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.2,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -7.25,
"edge_pp": -7.25,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Stade d\u0027Abidjan",
"market_prob_pct": 43.84,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.56,
"edge_pp": 1.56,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.08,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.69,
"edge_pp": 5.69,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Mouna",
"market_prob_pct": 28.08,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Stade d\u0027Abidjan.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Stade d\u0027Abidjan (43.8%).",
"Stade d\u0027Abidjan \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 48.78,
"closing_odds": 2.05,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 48.78,
"entry_odds": 2.05,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/1",
"current_odds": 2.05,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.05,
"pick_team": "Stade d\u0027Abidjan",
"steam_score": 32,
"steam_team_name": "Stade d\u0027Abidjan",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "mouna",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Mouna",
"away_team_id": 22583,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/22583.webp",
"away_team_name": "Mouna",
"away_team_public_id": "3orLdYAcayOtLI",
"away_team_slug": "mouna",
"country_code": "CI",
"country_display_name": "Ivory-Coast",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ci.svg",
"country_id": 80,
"country_name": "Ivory-Coast",
"fixture_id": 1640814,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Ivory-Coast",
"home_team_display_name": "Stade d\u0027Abidjan",
"home_team_id": 4525,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4525.webp",
"home_team_name": "Stade d\u0027Abidjan",
"home_team_public_id": "28JpKakCXP04ih",
"home_team_slug": "stade-d-abidjan",
"ht.home_team_slug": "stade-d-abidjan",
"league_country": "Ivory-Coast",
"league_country_display": "Ivory-Coast",
"league_display_name": "Ligue 1 (Costa de Marfil)",
"league_id": 386,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/386.webp",
"league_name": "Ligue 1 (Costa de Marfil)",
"league_public_id": "4QDLxxJHBFH63e",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 18:00:00",
"public_id": "1OtN05eI3P4FwV",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Abidjan",
"venue_name": "Stade Robert Champroux"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_ou"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for O/U odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2745,
"best_odd": 3.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0156,
"ev": -0.0516,
"implied_prob": 0.2808,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2808,
"draw": 0.2808,
"home": 0.4384
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.2964
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.293,
"best_odd": 3.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0046,
"ev": -0.0867,
"implied_prob": 0.2808,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2808,
"draw": 0.2808,
"home": 0.4384
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2854
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4011,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.029,
"ev": -0.1609,
"implied_prob": 0.4384,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2808,
"draw": 0.2808,
"home": 0.4384
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.4093
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.2,
"edge": 0.025,
"ev": 0.0801,
"implied_prob": 0.3125,
"model_prob": 0.3375
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.2,
"edge": -0.016,
"ev": -0.0513,
"implied_prob": 0.3125,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": -0.1218,
"ev": -0.2497,
"implied_prob": 0.4878,
"model_prob": 0.366
}
},
"btts": {
"btts_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1089,
"alpha_under": 0.1497,
"best_over_odd": 2.38,
"best_under_odd": 1.53,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.38,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.53,
"edge_over": 0.0907,
"edge_under": -0.0907,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1472,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0452,
"ev_under": -0.2075,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0895,
"implied_over": 0.3913,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3913,
"implied_under": 0.6087,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6087,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1089,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0099,
"ev": -0.0452,
"implied_prob": 0.3913,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4012
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1497,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0136,
"ev": -0.0895,
"implied_prob": 0.6087,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5951
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4012,
"p_final_under": 0.5951,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1472,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1472,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1472,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.6
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stade d\u0027Abidjan)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1472,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1472,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Stade d\u0027Abidjan at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Stade d\u0027Abidjan as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Stade d\u0027Abidjan",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Stade d\u0027Abidjan).",
"Decision strength: 5.6/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1609,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4384,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48780487804878053,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2497,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.029,
"ev": -0.1609,
"implied_prob": 0.4384,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Stade d\u0027Abidjan"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1089,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0099,
"market_prob": 0.3913,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1089,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0099,
"ev": -0.0452,
"implied_prob": 0.3913,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4012
},
"p_final": 0.4012,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0452,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1497,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0136,
"ev": -0.0895,
"implied_prob": 0.6087,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5951
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0907,
"ev": 0.1472,
"implied_prob": 0.3913,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1640814,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1472,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3375,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.366
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Mouna",
"home": "Stade d\u0027Abidjan"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.037746,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1472,
"implied_prob": 0.3913,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1609,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4384,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48780487804878053,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2497,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-25.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1640814,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T18:02:51.986618+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Stade d'Abidjan & Mouna!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
