The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected MO Constantine at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (0 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 MO Constantine Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSP Batna | 31.5% | 59.6% | -28.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 26.1% | +3.4 pp | Aligned |
| MO Constantine | 39.0% | 14.3% | +24.6 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates MSP Batna's win probability at 59.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.5%, a difference of 28.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Draw 0–0.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on MO Constantine by 28.1 percentage points (67.1% vs model 39.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 15:02 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · MSP Batna 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · MO Constantine 39.0%
- xG · MSP Batna 1.22 — MO Constantine 1.38
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · MSP Batna 1.49 · Draw 3.40 · MO Constantine 6.19
- Implied 1X2 · MSP Batna 59.6% · Draw 26.1% · MO Constantine 14.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 15:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · MSP Batna 1.49 · Draw 3.40 · MO Constantine 6.19
- Implied 1X2 · MSP Batna 59.6% · Draw 26.1% · MO Constantine 14.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Cautious / Wait
Etiqueta histórica: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Decisión histórica
Wait
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
49/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (28 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
0/100
Monitoring Confidence
13/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.49
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · MSP Batna 0–0 MO Constantine
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
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"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0797,
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"ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": 8.0,
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"id": "1x2",
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},
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},
{
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -15.4%",
"alert_team": "MO Constantine",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 28.1,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -28.08,
"hero_label": "MSP Batna",
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"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"model_team": "MO Constantine",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 79,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
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],
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},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
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"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
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"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 28.1,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (MO Constantine), but pricing still diverges by 28.1 pp."
},
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"decision_strength_v2": 5.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 38,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
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"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates MO Constantine at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 14.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies MO Constantine as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 24.6,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "MO Constantine",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "38 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (MO Constantine), but pricing still diverges by 28.1 pp.",
"Decision strength: 4.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0797,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.0%",
"consensus_odds": 6.19,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1434,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+24.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 24.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.16155088852988692,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.4122,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+141.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "5/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7142857142857143,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (28 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 11.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.1,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 59,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 28.08,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 28.08,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.38,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.22,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.38,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.22 \u00b7 Away xG 1.38 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -15.4,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -15.4%",
"steam_team": "MO Constantine",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 43,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market favour the same side (MO Constantine), but pricing still diverges by 28.1 pp.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 28.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 28.1,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (MO Constantine), but pricing still diverges by 28.1 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 28.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 28.1,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (MO Constantine), but pricing still diverges by 28.1 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.205,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.014119999999999999,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 38,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates MO Constantine at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 14.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies MO Constantine as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 24.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "MO Constantine",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "38 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (MO Constantine), but pricing still diverges by 28.1 pp.",
"Decision strength: 4.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0797,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.0%",
"consensus_odds": 6.19,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1434,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+24.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 24.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.16155088852988692,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.4122,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+141.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: MSP Batna 1.22 xG vs MO Constantine 1.38 \u2192 MO Constantine 39.0%",
"Market: MSP Batna ~14.3% implied",
"Market Steam: MO Constantine \u2193 -15.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans MO Constantine, but market pricing diverges by 28 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -28.08,
"fair_prob": 31.48,
"label": "MSP Batna",
"market_prob": 59.56,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.44,
"fair_prob": 29.54,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.1,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 24.63,
"fair_prob": 38.97,
"label": "MO Constantine",
"market_prob": 14.34,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.9,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.3,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.9,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.7,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.53,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 42.87,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.53,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 57.13,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -28.08,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "MSP Batna",
"market_prob_pct": 59.56,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "MO Constantine"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates MSP Batna\u0027s win probability at 59.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 31.5%, a difference of 28.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 28.08,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "MO Constantine",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+24.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 24.7,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+24.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 24.7,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 59,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "MO Constantine \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+24.7 pp).",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 43,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: MSP Batna 1.22 xG vs MO Constantine 1.38 \u2192 MO Constantine 39.0%",
"Market: MSP Batna ~14.3% implied",
"Market Steam: MO Constantine \u2193 -15.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans MO Constantine, but market pricing diverges by 28 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -28.08,
"hero_label": "MSP Batna",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "MO Constantine odds shortened \u2193 -15.4%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 28.08,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "MSP Batna",
"largest_gap_pp": -28.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices MSP Batna higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 28.1,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -28.08,
"edge_pp": -28.08,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "MSP Batna",
"market_prob_pct": 59.56,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.44,
"edge_pp": 3.44,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.1,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 24.63,
"edge_pp": 24.63,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "MO Constantine",
"market_prob_pct": 14.34,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers MSP Batna (14.3%).",
"However, MO Constantine has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -15.4%, 5/7).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 MO Constantine, Market \u2192 MSP Batna, Recent sharp money \u2192 MO Constantine.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 67.11,
"closing_odds": 1.49,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 67.11,
"entry_odds": 1.49,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -37.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -37.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -36.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -36.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -35.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -35.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -26.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -26.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -15.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -15.4
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 5.5,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -15.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 15.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 22h 23m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"5/7 books synchronized on MO Constantine (15.4% steam, score 79) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -15.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"6.50",
"6.00",
"5.50"
],
"display": "8.00 \u2192 4.60 \u2192 5.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 22h 23m",
"pick_team": "MO Constantine",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "8.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.60"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
6.5,
6.19,
5.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,5.6 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "6.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "5.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "6.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 6.5,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: MO Constantine \u2193 -15.4% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "MO Constantine",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: MO Constantine \u2193 -15.4% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 5.5,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -15.4%",
"open_odds": 6.5,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "MO Constantine",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 79,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"current_odds": 5.5,
"move_display": "\u2193 -15.4%",
"open_odds": 6.5,
"pick_team": "MO Constantine",
"steam_score": 79,
"steam_team_name": "MO Constantine",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 28.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "mo-constantine",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "MO Constantine",
"away_team_id": 10713,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/10713.webp",
"away_team_name": "MO Constantine",
"away_team_public_id": "2Vx91xMK3HMFCu",
"away_team_slug": "mo-constantine",
"country_code": "DZ",
"country_display_name": "Algeria",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/dz.svg",
"country_id": 2,
"country_name": "Algeria",
"fixture_id": 1640807,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Algeria",
"home_team_display_name": "MSP Batna",
"home_team_id": 10712,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10712.webp",
"home_team_name": "MSP Batna",
"home_team_public_id": "1JaR6DNPzNtpzp",
"home_team_slug": "msp-batna",
"ht.home_team_slug": "msp-batna",
"league_country": "Algeria",
"league_country_display": "Algeria",
"league_display_name": "Ligue 2 de Argelia",
"league_id": 187,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/187.webp",
"league_name": "Ligue 2 de Argelia",
"league_public_id": "1UI0IeYVucmepu",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 15:00:00",
"public_id": "1G7n6j4kKGNdWH",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1261,
"best_odd": 6.19,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0311,
"ev": 0.0797,
"implied_prob": 0.1434,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1434,
"draw": 0.261,
"home": 0.5956
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"p_final": 0.1744
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2845,
"best_odd": 3.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0098,
"ev": -0.0793,
"implied_prob": 0.261,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1434,
"draw": 0.261,
"home": 0.5956
},
"model_prob": 0.2954,
"p_final": 0.2708
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3474,
"best_odd": 1.49,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0975,
"ev": -0.2578,
"implied_prob": 0.5956,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1434,
"draw": 0.261,
"home": 0.5956
},
"model_prob": 0.3149,
"p_final": 0.4981
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 6.19,
"edge": 0.2281,
"ev": 1.412,
"implied_prob": 0.1616,
"model_prob": 0.3897
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.4,
"edge": 0.0013,
"ev": 0.0044,
"implied_prob": 0.2941,
"model_prob": 0.2954
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.49,
"edge": -0.3562,
"ev": -0.5308,
"implied_prob": 0.6711,
"model_prob": 0.3149
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2048,
"alpha_yes": 0.1862,
"best_no_odd": 1.67,
"best_yes_odd": 2.15,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1153,
"edge_yes": 0.1153,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2385,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.124,
"ev_yes": 0.1696,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0407,
"implied_no": 0.5713,
"implied_yes": 0.4287,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2048,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0236,
"ev": -0.124,
"implied_prob": 0.571,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5475
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1862,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": 0.0214,
"ev": -0.0407,
"implied_prob": 0.429,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4504
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.5475,
"p_final_yes": 0.4504,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1563,
"alpha_under": 0.2149,
"best_over_odd": 2.5,
"best_under_odd": 1.52,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.305,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.5,
"edge_over": 0.089,
"edge_under": -0.089,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.205,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0597,
"ev_under": -0.2126,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1196,
"implied_over": 0.393,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3942,
"implied_under": 0.607,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6058,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1563,
"best_odd": 2.305,
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": -0.0597,
"implied_prob": 0.3942,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4079
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2149,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0189,
"ev": -0.1196,
"implied_prob": 0.6058,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5869
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4079,
"p_final_under": 0.5869,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.205,
"best_outlier_ev": 1.412,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.205,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 4.0,
"score_before_guard": 6.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 28.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 28.1,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (MO Constantine), but pricing still diverges by 28.1 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.205,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.014119999999999999,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 38,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates MO Constantine at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 14.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies MO Constantine as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 24.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "MO Constantine",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +20.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "38 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (MO Constantine), but pricing still diverges by 28.1 pp.",
"Decision strength: 4.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0797,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.0%",
"consensus_odds": 6.19,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1434,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+24.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 24.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.16155088852988692,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.4122,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+141.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.16
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
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"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0311,
"ev": 0.0797,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.1434,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "MO Constantine"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1862,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"edge": 0.0214,
"market_prob": 0.429,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2048,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0236,
"ev": -0.124,
"implied_prob": 0.571,
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"p_final": 0.5475
},
"p_final": 0.4504,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0407,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": 0.0214,
"ev": -0.0407,
"implied_prob": 0.429,
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}
},
"edge": 0.1153,
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"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4287,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1563,
"available": true,
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"edge": 0.0137,
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"mode": "market_first_ou",
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1563,
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"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": -0.0597,
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"p_final": 0.4079
},
"p_final": 0.4079,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0597,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2149,
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"edge": -0.0189,
"ev": -0.1196,
"implied_prob": 0.6058,
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"p_final": 0.5869
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.089,
"ev": 0.205,
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"implied_prob": 0.393,
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"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1640807,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.205,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
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"probabilities": {
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},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
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"market": "ou_2_5",
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"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
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"market": "ou_2_5",
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"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
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"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "MO Constantine",
"home": "MSP Batna"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1696,
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"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0797,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.0%",
"consensus_odds": 6.19,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1434,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+24.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 24.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.16155088852988692,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.4122,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+141.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1640807,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T15:02:55.050547+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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