The model missed the final outcome (Hungría Sub-19 win 1–2).
The model had projected Rumanía Sub-19 at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Rumanía Sub-19 Hungría Sub-19 ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rumanía Sub-19 | 38.5% | 41.2% | -2.8 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 27.2% | +2.4 pp | Aligned |
| Hungría Sub-19 | 31.9% | 31.6% | +0.4 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Hungría Sub-19 win 1–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Hungría Sub-19 win 1–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Rumanía Sub-19 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Hungría Sub-19 31.9%
- xG · Rumanía Sub-19 1.37 — Hungría Sub-19 1.23
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Rumanía Sub-19 2.22 · Draw 3.37 · Hungría Sub-19 2.90
- Implied 1X2 · Rumanía Sub-19 41.2% · Draw 27.2% · Hungría Sub-19 31.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Rumanía Sub-19 2.22 · Draw 3.37 · Hungría Sub-19 2.90
- Implied 1X2 · Rumanía Sub-19 41.2% · Draw 27.2% · Hungría Sub-19 31.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Hungría Sub-19 win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
78/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
86/100
Betting Confidence
81/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.22
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Hungría Sub-19 win · Rumanía Sub-19 1–2 Hungría Sub-19
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Ruman\u00eda Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Ruman\u00eda Sub-19.",
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1109,
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},
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},
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},
{
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
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"alert_breadth_note": "1/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +2.4%",
"alert_team": "Ruman\u00eda Sub-19",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 2.8,
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"show": true,
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"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 2,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
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"key": "steam",
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},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"label": "Disagree",
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"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Ruman\u00eda Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Ruman\u00eda Sub-19."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Ruman\u00eda Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Ruman\u00eda Sub-19."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1189,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1189,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ruman\u00eda Sub-19 at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ruman\u00eda Sub-19 as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Ruman\u00eda Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Ruman\u00eda Sub-19.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ruman\u00eda Sub-19",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Ruman\u00eda Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Ruman\u00eda Sub-19.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Ruman\u00eda Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Ruman\u00eda Sub-19.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1109,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4125,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4504504504504504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1462,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "1/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.14285714285714285,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.4,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 74,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 2.76,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 2.76,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.23,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.37,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.37,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.37 \u00b7 Away xG 1.23 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.4,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +2.4%",
"steam_team": "Ruman\u00eda Sub-19",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Ruman\u00eda Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Ruman\u00eda Sub-19.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Ruman\u00eda Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Ruman\u00eda Sub-19."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Ruman\u00eda Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Ruman\u00eda Sub-19."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1189,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1189,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ruman\u00eda Sub-19 at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ruman\u00eda Sub-19 as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Ruman\u00eda Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Ruman\u00eda Sub-19.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ruman\u00eda Sub-19",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Ruman\u00eda Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Ruman\u00eda Sub-19.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Ruman\u00eda Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Ruman\u00eda Sub-19.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1109,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4125,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4504504504504504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1462,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Ruman\u00eda Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Ruman\u00eda Sub-19.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ruman\u00eda Sub-19 1.37 xG vs Hungr\u00eda Sub-19 1.23 \u2192 Ruman\u00eda Sub-19 38.5%",
"Market: Ruman\u00eda Sub-19 ~41.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Ruman\u00eda Sub-19 odds \u2191 +2.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Ruman\u00eda Sub-19, but the market has moved away from Ruman\u00eda Sub-19.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.76,
"fair_prob": 38.49,
"label": "Ruman\u00eda Sub-19",
"market_prob": 41.25,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.4,
"fair_prob": 29.57,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.17,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.36,
"fair_prob": 31.94,
"label": "Hungr\u00eda Sub-19",
"market_prob": 31.58,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.73,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.93,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.73,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.07,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.84,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 59.24,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.84,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 40.76,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -2.76,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Ruman\u00eda Sub-19",
"market_prob_pct": 41.25,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Ruman\u00eda Sub-19"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.76,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Ruman\u00eda Sub-19",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 41.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-2.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -2.7,
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-2.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -2.7,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 74,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Ruman\u00eda Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Ruman\u00eda Sub-19. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ruman\u00eda Sub-19 1.37 xG vs Hungr\u00eda Sub-19 1.23 \u2192 Ruman\u00eda Sub-19 38.5%",
"Market: Ruman\u00eda Sub-19 ~41.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Ruman\u00eda Sub-19 odds \u2191 +2.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Ruman\u00eda Sub-19, but the market has moved away from Ruman\u00eda Sub-19.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -2.76,
"hero_label": "Ruman\u00eda Sub-19",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Ruman\u00eda Sub-19 odds lengthened \u2191 +2.4%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (1/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Confirmation remains limited (1/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on Ruman\u00eda Sub-19 (\u2191 +2.4%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/7), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 2.76,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.6 pp (at 38.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Ruman\u00eda Sub-19",
"largest_gap_pp": -2.8,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.8,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -2.76,
"edge_pp": -2.76,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Ruman\u00eda Sub-19",
"market_prob_pct": 41.25,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.4,
"edge_pp": 2.4,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.17,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.36,
"edge_pp": 0.36,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Hungr\u00eda Sub-19",
"market_prob_pct": 31.58,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Ruman\u00eda Sub-19 (41.2%).",
"Ruman\u00eda Sub-19 odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +2.4%, 1/7) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Ruman\u00eda Sub-19, Market \u2192 Ruman\u00eda Sub-19, while Ruman\u00eda Sub-19 odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 45.05,
"closing_odds": 2.22,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 45.05,
"entry_odds": 2.22,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.4
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "1/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.15,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest closing-window shift",
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 2.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
"move_speed_label": "Stable line",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Ruman\u00eda Sub-19 (swing 2.24 \u2192 2.05 \u2192 2.15) \u2014 net 2.4% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.22",
"2.16",
"2.10"
],
"display": "2.24 \u2192 2.05 \u2192 2.15",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
"move_speed_label": "Stable line",
"pick_team": "Ruman\u00eda Sub-19",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.24"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.05"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.15"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.1,
2.22,
2.15
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,10.5",
"sparkline_trend": "flat",
"sparkline_trend_label": "Stable",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.22"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.15"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.1,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Ruman\u00eda Sub-19",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.15,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.4%",
"open_odds": 2.1,
"summary": "Market moved away from Ruman\u00eda Sub-19 while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Ruman\u00eda Sub-19",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 2,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/7",
"current_odds": 2.15,
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.4%",
"open_odds": 2.1,
"pick_team": "Ruman\u00eda Sub-19",
"steam_score": 2,
"steam_team_name": "Ruman\u00eda Sub-19",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 2.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "hungary-u19",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Hungr\u00eda Sub-19",
"away_team_id": 10365,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/10365.webp",
"away_team_name": "Hungr\u00eda Sub-19",
"away_team_public_id": "5rlbKHNfj8OSVV",
"away_team_slug": "hungary-u19",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1640503,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Romania",
"home_team_display_name": "Ruman\u00eda Sub-19",
"home_team_id": 10378,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10378.webp",
"home_team_name": "Ruman\u00eda Sub-19",
"home_team_public_id": "0mP1e3NK46r4jU",
"home_team_slug": "romania-u19",
"ht.home_team_slug": "romania-u19",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Amistosos",
"league_id": 10,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/10.webp",
"league_name": "Amistosos",
"league_public_id": "3Ezk9HpSM4hKk0",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-24 14:00:00",
"public_id": "2hSAAa20chilNP",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4475,
"best_odd": 2.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0017,
"ev": -0.0794,
"implied_prob": 0.3158,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3158,
"draw": 0.2717,
"home": 0.4125
},
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.3174
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2891,
"best_odd": 3.37,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.007,
"ev": -0.0607,
"implied_prob": 0.2717,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3158,
"draw": 0.2717,
"home": 0.4125
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2787
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4312,
"best_odd": 2.22,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.012,
"ev": -0.1109,
"implied_prob": 0.4125,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3158,
"draw": 0.2717,
"home": 0.4125
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"p_final": 0.4005
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.9,
"edge": -0.0253,
"ev": -0.0734,
"implied_prob": 0.3448,
"model_prob": 0.3195
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.37,
"edge": -0.0009,
"ev": -0.0029,
"implied_prob": 0.2967,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.22,
"edge": -0.0658,
"ev": -0.1461,
"implied_prob": 0.4505,
"model_prob": 0.3846
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1657,
"alpha_yes": 0.2279,
"best_no_odd": 2.32,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0484,
"edge_yes": -0.0484,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0579,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0731,
"ev_yes": -0.1187,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1111,
"implied_no": 0.4076,
"implied_yes": 0.5924,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1657,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0088,
"ev": -0.0731,
"implied_prob": 0.4032,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4119
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2279,
"best_odd": 1.52,
"edge": -0.012,
"ev": -0.1111,
"implied_prob": 0.5968,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5848
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.4119,
"p_final_yes": 0.5848,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2189,
"alpha_under": 0.199,
"best_over_odd": 1.67,
"best_under_odd": 2.16,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.64,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.08,
"edge_over": -0.0773,
"edge_under": 0.0773,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1951,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1107,
"ev_under": 0.1189,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0511,
"implied_over": 0.5593,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5591,
"implied_under": 0.4407,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4409,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2189,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0169,
"ev": -0.1107,
"implied_prob": 0.5591,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5423
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.199,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0153,
"ev": -0.0511,
"implied_prob": 0.4409,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4562
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5423,
"p_final_under": 0.4562,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1189,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1189,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1189,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.5
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Ruman\u00eda Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Ruman\u00eda Sub-19."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1189,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1189,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ruman\u00eda Sub-19 at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ruman\u00eda Sub-19 as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Ruman\u00eda Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Ruman\u00eda Sub-19.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ruman\u00eda Sub-19",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Ruman\u00eda Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Ruman\u00eda Sub-19.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Ruman\u00eda Sub-19, but the model still strongly favours Ruman\u00eda Sub-19.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1109,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4125,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4504504504504504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1462,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3846,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.14
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.012,
"ev": -0.1109,
"implied_prob": 0.4125,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Ruman\u00eda Sub-19"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1657,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0088,
"market_prob": 0.4032,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1657,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0088,
"ev": -0.0731,
"implied_prob": 0.4032,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4119
},
"p_final": 0.4119,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0731,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2279,
"best_odd": 1.52,
"edge": -0.012,
"ev": -0.1111,
"implied_prob": 0.5968,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5848
}
},
"edge": 0.0484,
"ev": 0.0579,
"implied_prob": 0.4076,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.199,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0153,
"market_prob": 0.4409,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2189,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0169,
"ev": -0.1107,
"implied_prob": 0.5591,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5423
},
"p_final": 0.4562,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0511,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.199,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0153,
"ev": -0.0511,
"implied_prob": 0.4409,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4562
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0773,
"ev": 0.1189,
"implied_prob": 0.4407,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1640503,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1189,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3195,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3846
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Hungr\u00eda Sub-19",
"home": "Ruman\u00eda Sub-19"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.043113,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1189,
"implied_prob": 0.4407,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1109,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4125,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4504504504504504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1462,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1640503,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-24T13:59:21.198086+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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