The model missed the final outcome (Suiza Sub-19 win 0–1).
The model had projected Polonia Sub-19 at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Polonia Sub-19 Suiza Sub-19 ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polonia Sub-19 | 39.0% | 38.8% | +0.2 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.5% | 25.3% | +4.2 pp | Aligned |
| Suiza Sub-19 | 31.5% | 35.9% | -4.4 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Suiza Sub-19 win 0–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Polonia Sub-19; match finished Suiza Sub-19
Market lesson
The full-time result was Suiza Sub-19 win 0–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Polonia Sub-19 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Suiza Sub-19 31.5%
- xG · Polonia Sub-19 1.38 — Suiza Sub-19 1.22
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Polonia Sub-19 2.36 · Draw 3.62 · Suiza Sub-19 2.55
- Implied 1X2 · Polonia Sub-19 38.8% · Draw 25.3% · Suiza Sub-19 35.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Polonia Sub-19 2.36 · Draw 3.62 · Suiza Sub-19 2.55
- Implied 1X2 · Polonia Sub-19 38.8% · Draw 25.3% · Suiza Sub-19 35.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 09:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Suiza Sub-19 win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
77/100
Betting Confidence
80/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.55
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Suiza Sub-19 win · Polonia Sub-19 0–1 Suiza Sub-19
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
{
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"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0826,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": -8.3,
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},
"featured": false,
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"max_ev": -0.0412,
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},
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"sort_key": 1789.7,
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},
{
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +17.0%",
"alert_team": "Suiza Sub-19",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 4.4,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.43,
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"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
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"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
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"key": "steam",
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},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
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"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
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"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Polonia Sub-19)."
},
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"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
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"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.3,
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"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Polonia Sub-19 at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Polonia Sub-19 as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Polonia Sub-19",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Polonia Sub-19).",
"Decision strength: 6.3/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0826,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.36,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.388,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.42372881355932207,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0803,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "2/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.2857142857142857,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.9,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 83,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.43,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.43,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.22,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.38,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.38,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.38 \u00b7 Away xG 1.22 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +17.0%",
"steam_team": "Suiza Sub-19",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 99,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 99,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Polonia Sub-19).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Polonia Sub-19)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Polonia Sub-19)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.3,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Polonia Sub-19 at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Polonia Sub-19 as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Polonia Sub-19",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Polonia Sub-19).",
"Decision strength: 6.3/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0826,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.36,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.388,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.42372881355932207,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0803,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Polonia Sub-19 1.38 xG vs Suiza Sub-19 1.22 \u2192 Polonia Sub-19 39.0%",
"Market: Polonia Sub-19 ~38.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Suiza Sub-19 odds \u2191 +17.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Polonia Sub-19 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 0.17,
"fair_prob": 38.97,
"label": "Polonia Sub-19",
"market_prob": 38.8,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.25,
"fair_prob": 29.54,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.29,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.43,
"fair_prob": 31.48,
"label": "Suiza Sub-19",
"market_prob": 35.91,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.35,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.55,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.35,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.45,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.72,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 58.12,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.72,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 41.88,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -4.43,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Suiza Sub-19",
"market_prob_pct": 35.91,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Suiza Sub-19"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.43,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Polonia Sub-19",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 38.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+0.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 0.2,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+0.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 0.2,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 83,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Polonia Sub-19 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 99,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 99,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Polonia Sub-19 1.38 xG vs Suiza Sub-19 1.22 \u2192 Polonia Sub-19 39.0%",
"Market: Polonia Sub-19 ~38.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Suiza Sub-19 odds \u2191 +17.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Polonia Sub-19 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.43,
"hero_label": "Suiza Sub-19",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Suiza Sub-19 odds lengthened \u2191 +17.0%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (2/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Suiza Sub-19.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"Confirmation remains limited (2/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Suiza Sub-19."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"Recent line movement on Suiza Sub-19 (\u2191 +17.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/7), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.43,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Suiza Sub-19",
"largest_gap_pp": -4.4,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.4,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 0.17,
"edge_pp": 0.17,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Polonia Sub-19",
"market_prob_pct": 38.8,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.25,
"edge_pp": 4.25,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.29,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.43,
"edge_pp": -4.43,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Suiza Sub-19",
"market_prob_pct": 35.91,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Suiza Sub-19.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Polonia Sub-19 (38.8%).",
"However, Suiza Sub-19 has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +17.0%, 2/7) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Polonia Sub-19 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 39.22,
"closing_odds": 2.55,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 39.22,
"entry_odds": 2.55,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.1
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "2/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.75,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +17.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 17.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 17h 57m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Suiza Sub-19 (17.0%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated the move, but wider market participation remains limited."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.75",
"2.55",
"2.35"
],
"display": "2.75 \u2192 2.35 \u2192 2.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 17h 57m",
"pick_team": "Suiza Sub-19",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.75"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.35"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.35,
2.55,
2.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,9.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.35"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.35"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.35,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Suiza Sub-19",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.75,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +17.0%",
"open_odds": 2.35,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Suiza Sub-19",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/7",
"current_odds": 2.75,
"move_display": "\u2191 +17.0%",
"open_odds": 2.35,
"pick_team": "Suiza Sub-19",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_team_name": "Suiza Sub-19",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "switzerland-u19",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Suiza Sub-19",
"away_team_id": 10350,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/10350.webp",
"away_team_name": "Suiza Sub-19",
"away_team_public_id": "2HZpuVSv75KUrM",
"away_team_slug": "switzerland-u19",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1640060,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Poland",
"home_team_display_name": "Polonia Sub-19",
"home_team_id": 10376,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10376.webp",
"home_team_name": "Polonia Sub-19",
"home_team_public_id": "0hPmbiOsupleZ9",
"home_team_slug": "poland-u19",
"ht.home_team_slug": "poland-u19",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Amistosos",
"league_id": 10,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/10.webp",
"league_name": "Amistosos",
"league_public_id": "3Ezk9HpSM4hKk0",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-25 09:30:00",
"public_id": "1eUmKGqnTH04Bw",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4202,
"best_odd": 2.55,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0186,
"ev": -0.1317,
"implied_prob": 0.3591,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3591,
"draw": 0.2529,
"home": 0.388
},
"model_prob": 0.3149,
"p_final": 0.3405
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2809,
"best_odd": 3.62,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0119,
"ev": -0.0412,
"implied_prob": 0.2529,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3591,
"draw": 0.2529,
"home": 0.388
},
"model_prob": 0.2954,
"p_final": 0.2649
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4489,
"best_odd": 2.36,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0008,
"ev": -0.0826,
"implied_prob": 0.388,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3591,
"draw": 0.2529,
"home": 0.388
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"p_final": 0.3887
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.55,
"edge": -0.0772,
"ev": -0.197,
"implied_prob": 0.3922,
"model_prob": 0.3149
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.62,
"edge": 0.0192,
"ev": 0.0694,
"implied_prob": 0.2762,
"model_prob": 0.2954
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.36,
"edge": -0.0341,
"ev": -0.0804,
"implied_prob": 0.4237,
"model_prob": 0.3897
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1693,
"alpha_yes": 0.2328,
"best_no_odd": 2.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0372,
"edge_yes": -0.0372,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.026,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0691,
"ev_yes": -0.1187,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0983,
"implied_no": 0.4188,
"implied_yes": 0.5812,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1693,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0067,
"ev": -0.0691,
"implied_prob": 0.4164,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4231
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2328,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0092,
"ev": -0.0983,
"implied_prob": 0.5836,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5743
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.4231,
"p_final_yes": 0.5743,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2248,
"alpha_under": 0.2043,
"best_over_odd": 1.73,
"best_under_odd": 2.1,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.69,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.01,
"edge_over": -0.0635,
"edge_under": 0.0635,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1661,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1052,
"ev_under": 0.0878,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0568,
"implied_over": 0.5455,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5432,
"implied_under": 0.4545,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4568,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2248,
"best_odd": 1.69,
"edge": -0.0138,
"ev": -0.1052,
"implied_prob": 0.5432,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5295
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2043,
"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": 0.0125,
"ev": -0.0568,
"implied_prob": 0.4568,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4693
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5295,
"p_final_under": 0.4693,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.3,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.3,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.3,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.3
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Polonia Sub-19)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.3,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Polonia Sub-19 at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Polonia Sub-19 as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 0.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Polonia Sub-19",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Polonia Sub-19).",
"Decision strength: 6.3/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0826,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.36,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.388,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.42372881355932207,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0803,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.16
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.36,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0008,
"ev": -0.0826,
"implied_prob": 0.388,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Polonia Sub-19"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1693,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0067,
"market_prob": 0.4164,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1693,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0067,
"ev": -0.0691,
"implied_prob": 0.4164,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4231
},
"p_final": 0.4231,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0691,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2328,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0092,
"ev": -0.0983,
"implied_prob": 0.5836,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5743
}
},
"edge": 0.0372,
"ev": 0.026,
"implied_prob": 0.4188,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2043,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.01,
"edge": 0.0125,
"market_prob": 0.4568,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2248,
"best_odd": 1.69,
"edge": -0.0138,
"ev": -0.1052,
"implied_prob": 0.5432,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5295
},
"p_final": 0.4693,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0568,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2043,
"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": 0.0125,
"ev": -0.0568,
"implied_prob": 0.4568,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4693
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0635,
"ev": 0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.4545,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1640060,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0878,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3149,
"draw": 0.2954,
"home": 0.3897
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Suiza Sub-19",
"home": "Polonia Sub-19"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.031836,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.4545,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0826,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.36,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.388,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "+0.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.42372881355932207,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0803,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-8.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1640060,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-25T09:29:15.621365+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Mundo. Amistosos Predicciones
