The model missed the final outcome (Montevideo City Torque win 1–4).
The model had projected Central Español at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Central Español Montevideo City Torque ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-4 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Español | 36.6% | 22.1% | +14.5 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 28.0% | +1.6 pp | Aligned |
| Montevideo City Torque | 33.8% | 49.9% | -16.1 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Montevideo City Torque's win probability at 49.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 16.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Montevideo City Torque win 1–4.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Montevideo City Torque than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Central Español; match finished Montevideo City Torque
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Central Español by 16.1 percentage points (52.7% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 21, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Central Español 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Montevideo City Torque 33.8%
- xG · Central Español 1.33 — Montevideo City Torque 1.27
-
Sep 21, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Central Español 4.31 · Draw 3.40 · Montevideo City Torque 1.91
- Implied 1X2 · Central Español 22.1% · Draw 28.0% · Montevideo City Torque 49.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 21, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Central Español 4.31 · Draw 3.40 · Montevideo City Torque 1.91
- Implied 1X2 · Central Español 22.1% · Draw 28.0% · Montevideo City Torque 49.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 21, 2026 · 22:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Montevideo City Torque win · 1–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
55/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (16 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
6/100
Monitoring Confidence
19/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.91
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Montevideo City Torque win · Central Español 1–4 Montevideo City Torque
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Central Espa\u00f1ol, but the model still strongly favours Central Espa\u00f1ol.",
"consensus_odds": 4.31,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0504,
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"ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": 5.0,
"text": "+5.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
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"max_ev_display": {
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},
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"raw_edge_display": "+14.5 percentage points",
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"raw_signal_ev_display": "+57.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
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"sort_key": 10045.36,
"tier": "best"
},
{
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"alert_team": "Central Espa\u00f1ol",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 16.1,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -16.11,
"hero_label": "Montevideo City Torque",
"market_prob_pct": 22.1,
"market_team": "Montevideo City Torque",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
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"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 58,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
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"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Central Espa\u00f1ol, but the model still strongly favours Central Espa\u00f1ol."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Central Espa\u00f1ol, but the model still strongly favours Central Espa\u00f1ol."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1375,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5774,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Central Espa\u00f1ol at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Central Espa\u00f1ol as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Central Espa\u00f1ol, but the model still strongly favours Central Espa\u00f1ol.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Central Espa\u00f1ol",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Central Espa\u00f1ol \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.89 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +58% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1639787 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.89 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +13.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Central Espa\u00f1ol, but the model still strongly favours Central Espa\u00f1ol.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +58% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Central Espa\u00f1ol, but the model still strongly favours Central Espa\u00f1ol.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0504,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.0%",
"consensus_odds": 4.31,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.221,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2320185614849188,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5775,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+57.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "9/9",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (16 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 16.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 58,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 16.11,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 16.11,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.27,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.33,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.33 \u00b7 Away xG 1.27 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.4,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"steam_team": "Central Espa\u00f1ol",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 9,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 9,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Central Espa\u00f1ol, but the model still strongly favours Central Espa\u00f1ol.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Central Espa\u00f1ol, but the model still strongly favours Central Espa\u00f1ol."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Central Espa\u00f1ol, but the model still strongly favours Central Espa\u00f1ol."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1375,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5774,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Central Espa\u00f1ol at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Central Espa\u00f1ol as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Central Espa\u00f1ol, but the model still strongly favours Central Espa\u00f1ol.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Central Espa\u00f1ol",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Central Espa\u00f1ol \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.89 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +58% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1639787 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.89 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +13.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Central Espa\u00f1ol, but the model still strongly favours Central Espa\u00f1ol.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +58% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Central Espa\u00f1ol, but the model still strongly favours Central Espa\u00f1ol.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0504,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.0%",
"consensus_odds": 4.31,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.221,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2320185614849188,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5775,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+57.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Central Espa\u00f1ol, but the model still strongly favours Central Espa\u00f1ol.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Central Espa\u00f1ol 1.33 xG vs Montevideo City Torque 1.27 \u2192 Central Espa\u00f1ol 36.6%",
"Market: Montevideo City Torque ~22.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Central Espa\u00f1ol odds \u2191 +11.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Central Espa\u00f1ol, but the market has moved away from Central Espa\u00f1ol.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 14.49,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Central Espa\u00f1ol",
"market_prob": 22.1,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.62,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.02,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -16.11,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Montevideo City Torque",
"market_prob": 49.88,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.71,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.49,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.71,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.51,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.81,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 47.69,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.81,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 52.31,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -16.11,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Montevideo City Torque",
"market_prob_pct": 49.88,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Central Espa\u00f1ol"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Montevideo City Torque\u0027s win probability at 49.9%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 16.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 16.11,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Central Espa\u00f1ol",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 22.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+14.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 14.5,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+14.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 14.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 58,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Central Espa\u00f1ol, but the model still strongly favours Central Espa\u00f1ol. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 9,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 9,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Central Espa\u00f1ol 1.33 xG vs Montevideo City Torque 1.27 \u2192 Central Espa\u00f1ol 36.6%",
"Market: Montevideo City Torque ~22.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Central Espa\u00f1ol odds \u2191 +11.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Central Espa\u00f1ol, but the market has moved away from Central Espa\u00f1ol.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -16.11,
"hero_label": "Montevideo City Torque",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Central Espa\u00f1ol odds lengthened \u2191 +11.4%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Central Espa\u00f1ol has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Montevideo City Torque than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Central Espa\u00f1ol \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.4% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Montevideo City Torque than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Central Espa\u00f1ol has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Central Espa\u00f1ol \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.4% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Montevideo City Torque more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Central Espa\u00f1ol has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/9) supports the current market view on Central Espa\u00f1ol."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 16.11,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Montevideo City Torque",
"largest_gap_pp": -16.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices Montevideo City Torque higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 16.1,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 14.49,
"edge_pp": 14.49,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Central Espa\u00f1ol",
"market_prob_pct": 22.1,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.62,
"edge_pp": 1.62,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.02,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -16.11,
"edge_pp": -16.11,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Montevideo City Torque",
"market_prob_pct": 49.88,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Central Espa\u00f1ol \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.4% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Montevideo City Torque (22.1%).",
"However, Central Espa\u00f1ol has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +11.4%, 9/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Central Espa\u00f1ol, Market \u2192 Montevideo City Torque, while Central Espa\u00f1ol odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 52.36,
"closing_odds": 1.91,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 52.36,
"entry_odds": 1.91,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.8
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.9,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 11.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 27h 36m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Central Espa\u00f1ol (11.4%, 9/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.31",
"3.90",
"3.50"
],
"display": "4.00 \u2192 3.37 \u2192 3.90",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 27h 36m",
"pick_team": "Central Espa\u00f1ol",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.37"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.90"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.5,
4.31,
3.9
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,9.1",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.31"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.90"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.5,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 9/9 sportsbooks on Central Espa\u00f1ol",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Central Espa\u00f1ol",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.9,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"open_odds": 3.5,
"summary": "Market moved away from Central Espa\u00f1ol while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Central Espa\u00f1ol",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 58,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 3.9,
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"open_odds": 3.5,
"pick_team": "Central Espa\u00f1ol",
"steam_score": 58,
"steam_team_name": "Central Espa\u00f1ol",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 16.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "atletico-torque",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Montevideo City Torque",
"away_team_id": 2365,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2365.webp",
"away_team_name": "Montevideo City Torque",
"away_team_public_id": "10RHdWUBoBHKx8",
"away_team_slug": "atletico-torque",
"country_code": "UY",
"country_display_name": "Uruguay",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/uy.svg",
"country_id": 162,
"country_name": "Uruguay",
"fixture_id": 1639787,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Uruguay",
"home_team_display_name": "Central Espa\u00f1ol",
"home_team_id": 2368,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2368.webp",
"home_team_name": "Central Espa\u00f1ol",
"home_team_public_id": "47ySXajZhGCkYz",
"home_team_slug": "central-espanol",
"ht.home_team_slug": "central-espanol",
"league_country": "Uruguay",
"league_country_display": "Uruguay",
"league_display_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n - Apertura (Uruguay) - Apertura",
"league_id": 268,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/268.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n - Apertura (Uruguay) - Apertura",
"league_name_canonical": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n - Apertura (Uruguay)",
"league_public_id": "4kidSJ5ECYirOZ",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-21 22:30:00",
"public_id": "0ZthpYtabg2AoX",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Montevideo",
"venue_name": "Parque Palermo"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4549,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0733,
"ev": -0.1874,
"implied_prob": 0.4988,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4988,
"draw": 0.2802,
"home": 0.221
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.4254
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2927,
"best_odd": 3.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0048,
"ev": -0.0311,
"implied_prob": 0.2802,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4988,
"draw": 0.2802,
"home": 0.221
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.285
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1565,
"best_odd": 4.31,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0227,
"ev": 0.0504,
"implied_prob": 0.221,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4988,
"draw": 0.2802,
"home": 0.221
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.2437
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": -0.186,
"ev": -0.3553,
"implied_prob": 0.5236,
"model_prob": 0.3375
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.4,
"edge": 0.0024,
"ev": 0.008,
"implied_prob": 0.2941,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 4.31,
"edge": 0.134,
"ev": 0.5774,
"implied_prob": 0.232,
"model_prob": 0.366
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2214,
"alpha_yes": 0.2013,
"best_no_odd": 1.83,
"best_yes_odd": 2.0,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0681,
"edge_yes": 0.0681,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1673,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1107,
"ev_yes": 0.09,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0563,
"implied_no": 0.5231,
"implied_yes": 0.4769,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2214,
"best_odd": 1.745,
"edge": -0.0155,
"ev": -0.1107,
"implied_prob": 0.5252,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5096
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2013,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": 0.0141,
"ev": -0.0563,
"implied_prob": 0.4748,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.489
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5096,
"p_final_yes": 0.489,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2047,
"alpha_under": 0.2252,
"best_over_odd": 2.36,
"best_under_odd": 1.7,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.185,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.595,
"edge_over": 0.0571,
"edge_under": -0.0571,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1375,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0512,
"ev_under": -0.1194,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0996,
"implied_over": 0.4249,
"implied_over_mf": 0.422,
"implied_under": 0.5751,
"implied_under_mf": 0.578,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2047,
"best_odd": 2.185,
"edge": 0.0123,
"ev": -0.0512,
"implied_prob": 0.422,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4343
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2252,
"best_odd": 1.595,
"edge": -0.0135,
"ev": -0.0996,
"implied_prob": 0.578,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5645
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4343,
"p_final_under": 0.5645,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1375,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5774,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1375,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.5
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Central Espa\u00f1ol, but the model still strongly favours Central Espa\u00f1ol."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1375,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5774,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Central Espa\u00f1ol at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Central Espa\u00f1ol as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Central Espa\u00f1ol, but the model still strongly favours Central Espa\u00f1ol.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Central Espa\u00f1ol",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Central Espa\u00f1ol \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.89 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +58% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1639787 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.89 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +13.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Central Espa\u00f1ol, but the model still strongly favours Central Espa\u00f1ol.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +58% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Central Espa\u00f1ol, but the model still strongly favours Central Espa\u00f1ol.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0504,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.0%",
"consensus_odds": 4.31,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.221,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2320185614849188,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5775,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+57.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 4.31,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0227,
"ev": 0.0504,
"implied_prob": 0.221,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Central Espa\u00f1ol"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2013,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"edge": 0.0141,
"market_prob": 0.4748,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2214,
"best_odd": 1.745,
"edge": -0.0155,
"ev": -0.1107,
"implied_prob": 0.5252,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5096
},
"p_final": 0.489,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0563,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2013,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": 0.0141,
"ev": -0.0563,
"implied_prob": 0.4748,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.489
}
},
"edge": 0.0681,
"ev": 0.09,
"implied_prob": 0.4769,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2047,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.185,
"edge": 0.0123,
"market_prob": 0.422,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2047,
"best_odd": 2.185,
"edge": 0.0123,
"ev": -0.0512,
"implied_prob": 0.422,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4343
},
"p_final": 0.4343,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0512,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2252,
"best_odd": 1.595,
"edge": -0.0135,
"ev": -0.0996,
"implied_prob": 0.578,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5645
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0571,
"ev": 0.1375,
"implied_prob": 0.4249,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1639787,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1375,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3375,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.366
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1375,
"implied_prob": 0.4249,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1375,
"implied_prob": 0.4249,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Montevideo City Torque",
"home": "Central Espa\u00f1ol"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.04905,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.09,
"implied_prob": 0.4769,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0504,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.0%",
"consensus_odds": 4.31,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.221,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2320185614849188,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5775,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+57.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1639787,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-21T22:29:14.009299+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Primera División - Apertura (Uruguay) — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Peñarol | 29 | 18 | 5 | 6 | 58 |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 55 |
| 3 | Montevideo City Torque | 29 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 53 |
| 4 | Racing Club de Montevideo | 30 | 14 | 11 | 5 | 53 |
| 5 | Nacional | 30 | 15 | 4 | 11 | 49 |
| 6 | Liverpool Montevideo | 30 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 46 |
| 7 | Montevideo Wanderers | 29 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 44 |
| 8 | Central Español | 30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 38 |
| 9 | Juventud | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 36 |
| 10 | Albion FC | 29 | 9 | 7 | 13 | 34 |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 33 |
| 12 | Cerro | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 33 |
| 13 | Defensor Sporting | 29 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 32 |
| 14 | Boston River | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 30 |
| 15 | Progreso | 30 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 28 |
| 16 | Danubio | 29 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 26 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montevideo City Torque | 29 | 51 | 34 | +17 | 53 |
| 2 | Peñarol | 29 | 48 | 24 | +24 | 58 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 30 | 46 | 27 | +19 | 55 |
| 4 | Nacional | 30 | 45 | 38 | +7 | 49 |
| 5 | Liverpool Montevideo | 30 | 39 | 28 | +11 | 46 |
| 6 | Albion FC | 29 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 34 |
| 7 | Racing Club de Montevideo | 30 | 36 | 24 | +12 | 53 |
| 8 | Montevideo Wanderers | 29 | 36 | 35 | +1 | 44 |
| 9 | Juventud | 30 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 36 |
| 10 | Central Español | 30 | 32 | 39 | -7 | 38 |
| 11 | Boston River | 30 | 29 | 42 | -13 | 30 |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 30 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 33 |
| 13 | Defensor Sporting | 29 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 32 |
| 14 | Progreso | 30 | 25 | 43 | -18 | 28 |
| 15 | Danubio | 29 | 24 | 38 | -14 | 26 |
| 16 | Cerro | 30 | 23 | 43 | -20 | 33 |
