The model missed the final outcome (Three Bridges win 1–3).
The model had projected Biggleswade at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Biggleswade Three Bridges ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggleswade | 37.1% | 43.9% | -6.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 23.5% | +6.1 pp | Model Higher |
| Three Bridges | 33.3% | 32.6% | +0.7 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Biggleswade's win probability at 43.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 6.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Three Bridges win 1–3.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Biggleswade. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Biggleswade by 6.8 percentage points (43.9% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 18:47 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Biggleswade 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Three Bridges 33.4%
- xG · Biggleswade 1.34 — Three Bridges 1.26
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 18:16 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Biggleswade 2.03 · Draw 3.76 · Three Bridges 2.73
- Implied 1X2 · Biggleswade 43.8% · Draw 23.6% · Three Bridges 32.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 18:47 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Biggleswade 2.05 · Draw 3.83 · Three Bridges 2.76
- Implied 1X2 · Biggleswade 43.9% · Draw 23.5% · Three Bridges 32.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Three Bridges win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
65/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.05
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Three Bridges win · Biggleswade 1–3 Three Bridges
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"ev": -0.1567,
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},
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},
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{
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/6",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/6 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +10.1%",
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"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
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"show": true,
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"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 56,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
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},
"decision_chain": {
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{
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},
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"alignment": {
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},
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"execution_confidence": 91,
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"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Biggleswade at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Biggleswade as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Biggleswade",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
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"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +30.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +30.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+30.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Biggleswade).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1567,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.439,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48780487804878053,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2405,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "5/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8333333333333334,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.3,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 87,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.84,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.84,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.26,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.34,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.34,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.34 \u00b7 Away xG 1.26 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.1,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +10.1%",
"steam_team": "Three Bridges",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 65,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 65,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Biggleswade).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Biggleswade)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Biggleswade)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3054,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3054,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Biggleswade at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Biggleswade as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Biggleswade",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +30.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +30.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+30.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Biggleswade).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1567,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.439,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48780487804878053,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2405,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Biggleswade 1.34 xG vs Three Bridges 1.26 \u2192 Biggleswade 37.1%",
"Market: Biggleswade ~43.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Three Bridges odds \u2191 +10.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Biggleswade with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -6.84,
"fair_prob": 37.06,
"label": "Biggleswade",
"market_prob": 43.9,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.13,
"fair_prob": 29.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.5,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"fair_prob": 33.31,
"label": "Three Bridges",
"market_prob": 32.61,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.81,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 63.01,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.81,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 36.99,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.18,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 65.68,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.18,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 34.32,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -6.84,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Biggleswade",
"market_prob_pct": 43.9,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Three Bridges"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Biggleswade\u0027s win probability at 43.9%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 6.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 6.84,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Biggleswade",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 43.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-6.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -6.8,
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-6.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -6.8,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 87,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Biggleswade \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 65,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 65,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Biggleswade 1.34 xG vs Three Bridges 1.26 \u2192 Biggleswade 37.1%",
"Market: Biggleswade ~43.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Three Bridges odds \u2191 +10.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Biggleswade with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.84,
"hero_label": "Biggleswade",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Three Bridges odds lengthened \u2191 +10.1%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Three Bridges has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Biggleswade. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Three Bridges \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.1% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Biggleswade. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Three Bridges has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Three Bridges \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.1% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Biggleswade above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Three Bridges has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (5/6) supports the current market view on Three Bridges."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.84,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.8,
"max_prob_pct": 37.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Biggleswade",
"largest_gap_pp": -6.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices Biggleswade higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.8,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -6.84,
"edge_pp": -6.84,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Biggleswade",
"market_prob_pct": 43.9,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.13,
"edge_pp": 6.13,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.5,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.7,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Three Bridges",
"market_prob_pct": 32.61,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Three Bridges \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.1% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Biggleswade (43.9%).",
"However, Three Bridges has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +10.1%, 5/6) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Biggleswade \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 48.78,
"closing_odds": 2.05,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 48.78,
"entry_odds": 2.05,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.0
}
],
"books_total": 6,
"breadth_display": "5/6",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.62,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 21h",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Three Bridges (10.1%, 5/6) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.76",
"2.57",
"2.38"
],
"display": "2.82 \u2192 2.38 \u2192 2.62",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 21h",
"pick_team": "Three Bridges",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.82"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.62"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.38,
2.76,
2.73,
2.62
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,0.0 37.3,1.4 56.0,6.6",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.76"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.62"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.38,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 5/6 sportsbooks on Three Bridges",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Three Bridges",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.62,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.1%",
"open_odds": 2.38,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Three Bridges",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 56,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/6",
"current_odds": 2.62,
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.1%",
"open_odds": 2.38,
"pick_team": "Three Bridges",
"steam_score": 56,
"steam_team_name": "Three Bridges",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "three-bridges",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Three Bridges",
"away_team_id": 7676,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/7676.webp",
"away_team_name": "Three Bridges",
"away_team_public_id": "52F7TVLxoBAN7u",
"away_team_slug": "three-bridges",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1639586,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Biggleswade",
"home_team_id": 7618,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/7618.webp",
"home_team_name": "Biggleswade",
"home_team_public_id": "2hFpoHC8D5wQC8",
"home_team_slug": "biggleswade",
"ht.home_team_slug": "biggleswade",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "FA Trophy",
"league_id": 47,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/47.webp",
"league_name": "FA Trophy",
"league_public_id": "0ec1cjayQOc2bT",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-25 18:45:00",
"public_id": "3jQOOUUynIrral",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.445,
"best_odd": 2.76,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0033,
"ev": -0.091,
"implied_prob": 0.3261,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3261,
"draw": 0.235,
"home": 0.439
},
"model_prob": 0.3335,
"p_final": 0.3294
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2725,
"best_odd": 3.83,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0166,
"ev": -0.0364,
"implied_prob": 0.235,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3261,
"draw": 0.235,
"home": 0.439
},
"model_prob": 0.296,
"p_final": 0.2516
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4038,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0276,
"ev": -0.1567,
"implied_prob": 0.439,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3261,
"draw": 0.235,
"home": 0.439
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"p_final": 0.4113
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.76,
"edge": -0.0288,
"ev": -0.0796,
"implied_prob": 0.3623,
"model_prob": 0.3335
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.83,
"edge": 0.0349,
"ev": 0.1336,
"implied_prob": 0.2611,
"model_prob": 0.296
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": -0.1173,
"ev": -0.2404,
"implied_prob": 0.4878,
"model_prob": 0.3705
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1049,
"alpha_yes": 0.1442,
"best_no_odd": 2.69,
"best_yes_odd": 1.39,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1118,
"edge_yes": -0.1118,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.224,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0559,
"ev_yes": -0.2424,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1095,
"implied_no": 0.3432,
"implied_yes": 0.6568,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1049,
"best_odd": 2.66,
"edge": 0.0117,
"ev": -0.0559,
"implied_prob": 0.3432,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3549
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1442,
"best_odd": 1.39,
"edge": -0.0161,
"ev": -0.1095,
"implied_prob": 0.6568,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6407
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"p_final_no": 0.3549,
"p_final_yes": 0.6407,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1903,
"alpha_under": 0.1384,
"best_over_odd": 1.53,
"best_under_odd": 2.52,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.425,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.49,
"edge_over": -0.1481,
"edge_under": 0.1481,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2625,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1354,
"ev_under": 0.3054,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0406,
"implied_over": 0.6301,
"implied_over_mf": 0.636,
"implied_under": 0.3699,
"implied_under_mf": 0.364,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1903,
"best_odd": 1.425,
"edge": -0.0293,
"ev": -0.1354,
"implied_prob": 0.636,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6067
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1384,
"best_odd": 2.49,
"edge": 0.0213,
"ev": -0.0406,
"implied_prob": 0.364,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3853
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6067,
"p_final_under": 0.3853,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3054,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3054,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3054,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.0
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Biggleswade)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3054,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3054,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Biggleswade at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Biggleswade as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Biggleswade",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +30.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +30.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+30.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Biggleswade).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1567,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.439,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48780487804878053,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2405,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.296,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3705,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0276,
"ev": -0.1567,
"implied_prob": 0.439,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Biggleswade"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1049,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.66,
"edge": 0.0117,
"market_prob": 0.3432,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1049,
"best_odd": 2.66,
"edge": 0.0117,
"ev": -0.0559,
"implied_prob": 0.3432,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3549
},
"p_final": 0.3549,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0559,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1442,
"best_odd": 1.39,
"edge": -0.0161,
"ev": -0.1095,
"implied_prob": 0.6568,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6407
}
},
"edge": 0.1118,
"ev": 0.224,
"implied_prob": 0.3432,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1384,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"edge": 0.0213,
"market_prob": 0.364,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1903,
"best_odd": 1.425,
"edge": -0.0293,
"ev": -0.1354,
"implied_prob": 0.636,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6067
},
"p_final": 0.3853,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0406,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1384,
"best_odd": 2.49,
"edge": 0.0213,
"ev": -0.0406,
"implied_prob": 0.364,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3853
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1481,
"ev": 0.3054,
"implied_prob": 0.3699,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1639586,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3054,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3335,
"draw": 0.296,
"home": 0.3705
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.224,
"implied_prob": 0.3432,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.224,
"implied_prob": 0.3432,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Three Bridges",
"home": "Biggleswade"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.110738,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3054,
"implied_prob": 0.3699,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1567,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.439,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48780487804878053,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2405,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1639586,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-25T18:47:04.719613+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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