AI correctly predicted the Colombia Sub-20 Femenina win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Colombia Sub-20 Femenina Colombia Sub-20 Femenina ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polonia Sub-20 F | 33.3% | 38.4% | -5.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 31.7% | -2.0 pp | Aligned |
| Colombia Sub-20 Femenina | 37.1% | 29.9% | +7.2 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Colombia Sub-20 Femenina's win probability at 37.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 29.9%, a difference of 7.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Colombia Sub-20 Femenina win 0–1).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Colombia Sub-20 Femenina.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Colombia Sub-20 Femenina more conservatively (29.9% vs model 37.1%, 7.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Colombia Sub-20 Femenina win 0–1).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 17, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Polonia Sub-20 F 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Colombia Sub-20 Femenina 37.0%
- xG · Polonia Sub-20 F 1.26 — Colombia Sub-20 Femenina 1.34
-
Sep 17, 2026 · 16:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Polonia Sub-20 F 2.38 · Draw 2.89 · Colombia Sub-20 Femenina 3.06
- Implied 1X2 · Polonia Sub-20 F 38.4% · Draw 31.7% · Colombia Sub-20 Femenina 29.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 17, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Polonia Sub-20 F 2.38 · Draw 2.89 · Colombia Sub-20 Femenina 3.06
- Implied 1X2 · Polonia Sub-20 F 38.4% · Draw 31.7% · Colombia Sub-20 Femenina 29.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 17, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Colombia Sub-20 Femenina win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
22/100
Monitoring Confidence
33/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.06
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Colombia Sub-20 Femenina win · Polonia Sub-20 F 0–1 Colombia Sub-20 Femenina
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"ev": -0.0265,
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],
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},
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"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Colombia Sub-20 Femenina at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.9%.",
"why": [
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
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},
{
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],
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"primary_allowed": true,
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"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
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"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
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"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Colombia Sub-20 Femenina).",
"Decision strength: 6.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0265,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.06,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.299,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.32679738562091504,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1337,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+13.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "7/7",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 88,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.16,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.16,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.34,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.26,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.34,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.26 \u00b7 Away xG 1.34 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.8,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +6.8%",
"steam_team": "Polonia Sub-20 F",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 64,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 64,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Colombia Sub-20 Femenina).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Colombia Sub-20 Femenina)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Colombia Sub-20 Femenina)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1905,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1905,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Colombia Sub-20 Femenina at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Colombia Sub-20 Femenina as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Colombia Sub-20 Femenina",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Colombia Sub-20 Femenina).",
"Decision strength: 6.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0265,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.06,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.299,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.32679738562091504,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1337,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+13.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Polonia Sub-20 F 1.26 xG vs Colombia Sub-20 Femenina 1.34 \u2192 Colombia Sub-20 Femenina 37.1%",
"Market: Polonia Sub-20 F ~29.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Polonia Sub-20 F odds \u2191 +6.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Colombia Sub-20 Femenina with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -5.13,
"fair_prob": 33.31,
"label": "Polonia Sub-20 F",
"market_prob": 38.44,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.03,
"fair_prob": 29.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 31.66,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.16,
"fair_prob": 37.06,
"label": "Colombia Sub-20 Femenina",
"market_prob": 29.9,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.35,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 38.85,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.35,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 61.15,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.57,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 46.93,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.57,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 53.07,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 7.16,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Colombia Sub-20 Femenina",
"market_prob_pct": 29.9,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Polonia Sub-20 F"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Colombia Sub-20 Femenina\u0027s win probability at 37.1%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 29.9%, a difference of 7.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 7.16,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Colombia Sub-20 Femenina",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 29.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+7.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 7.2,
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+7.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 88,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Colombia Sub-20 Femenina \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 64,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 64,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Polonia Sub-20 F 1.26 xG vs Colombia Sub-20 Femenina 1.34 \u2192 Colombia Sub-20 Femenina 37.1%",
"Market: Polonia Sub-20 F ~29.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Polonia Sub-20 F odds \u2191 +6.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Colombia Sub-20 Femenina with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 7.16,
"hero_label": "Colombia Sub-20 Femenina",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Polonia Sub-20 F odds lengthened \u2191 +6.8%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Polonia Sub-20 F has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Colombia Sub-20 Femenina.",
"note": "Drift away from Polonia Sub-20 F \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.8% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Colombia Sub-20 Femenina.",
"However, Polonia Sub-20 F has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Polonia Sub-20 F \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.8% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Colombia Sub-20 Femenina.",
"At the same time, Polonia Sub-20 F has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/7) supports the current market view on Polonia Sub-20 F."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.16,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.8,
"max_prob_pct": 37.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Colombia Sub-20 Femenina",
"largest_gap_pp": 7.2,
"lead": "The model rates Colombia Sub-20 Femenina considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.2,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -5.13,
"edge_pp": -5.13,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Polonia Sub-20 F",
"market_prob_pct": 38.44,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.03,
"edge_pp": -2.03,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 31.66,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.16,
"edge_pp": 7.16,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Colombia Sub-20 Femenina",
"market_prob_pct": 29.9,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Polonia Sub-20 F \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.8% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Polonia Sub-20 F (29.9%).",
"However, Polonia Sub-20 F has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +6.8%, 7/7) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Colombia Sub-20 Femenina, Market \u2192 Polonia Sub-20 F, while Polonia Sub-20 F odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 32.68,
"closing_odds": 3.06,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 32.68,
"entry_odds": 3.06,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.8
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "7/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.35,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 6.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 4h 11m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Betfair led repricing on Polonia Sub-20 F (6.8%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.38",
"2.29",
"2.20"
],
"display": "2.38 \u2192 2.11 \u2192 2.35",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 4h 11m",
"pick_team": "Polonia Sub-20 F",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.11"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.35"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.2,
2.38,
2.35
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,3.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.35"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.2,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 7/7 sportsbooks on Polonia Sub-20 F",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Polonia Sub-20 F",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.35,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.8%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Polonia Sub-20 F",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 56,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/7",
"current_odds": 2.35,
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.8%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"pick_team": "Polonia Sub-20 F",
"steam_score": 56,
"steam_team_name": "Polonia Sub-20 F",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "colombia-u20-w",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Colombia Sub-20 Femenina",
"away_team_id": 19081,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/19081.webp",
"away_team_name": "Colombia Sub-20 Femenina",
"away_team_public_id": "2ohvkcclvtS6kx",
"away_team_slug": "colombia-u20-w",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1639483,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": null,
"home_team_display_name": "Polonia Sub-20 F",
"home_team_id": 28367,
"home_team_logo": null,
"home_team_name": "Polonia Sub-20 F",
"home_team_public_id": "5tyEOT9Sr2NPV0",
"home_team_slug": null,
"ht.home_team_slug": null,
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Copa Mundial Sub-20 Femenina",
"league_id": 920,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/920.webp",
"league_name": "Copa Mundial Sub-20 Femenina",
"league_public_id": "5OVEaU0FvNMsQH",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-17 16:30:00",
"public_id": "5GS0AQqaQ9BpwY",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Stadion Miejski w Bielsku Bialej"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2678,
"best_odd": 3.06,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0192,
"ev": -0.0265,
"implied_prob": 0.299,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.299,
"draw": 0.3166,
"home": 0.3844
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"p_final": 0.3182
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4361,
"best_odd": 2.89,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.009,
"ev": -0.111,
"implied_prob": 0.3166,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.299,
"draw": 0.3166,
"home": 0.3844
},
"model_prob": 0.296,
"p_final": 0.3076
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4156,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0212,
"ev": -0.1355,
"implied_prob": 0.3844,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.299,
"draw": 0.3166,
"home": 0.3844
},
"model_prob": 0.3335,
"p_final": 0.3632
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.06,
"edge": 0.0437,
"ev": 0.1338,
"implied_prob": 0.3268,
"model_prob": 0.3705
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.89,
"edge": -0.05,
"ev": -0.1446,
"implied_prob": 0.346,
"model_prob": 0.296
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": -0.0867,
"ev": -0.2063,
"implied_prob": 0.4202,
"model_prob": 0.3335
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2183,
"alpha_yes": 0.1984,
"best_no_odd": 1.8,
"best_yes_odd": 2.0,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0757,
"edge_yes": 0.0757,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.181,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1089,
"ev_yes": 0.09,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0484,
"implied_no": 0.5307,
"implied_yes": 0.4693,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2183,
"best_odd": 1.725,
"edge": -0.0172,
"ev": -0.1089,
"implied_prob": 0.5338,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5166
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1984,
"best_odd": 1.975,
"edge": 0.0156,
"ev": -0.0484,
"implied_prob": 0.4662,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4818
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.5166,
"p_final_yes": 0.4818,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1546,
"alpha_under": 0.2126,
"best_over_odd": 2.47,
"best_under_odd": 1.57,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.375,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.505,
"edge_over": 0.0935,
"edge_under": -0.0935,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1905,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0442,
"ev_under": -0.1867,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1089,
"implied_over": 0.3885,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3879,
"implied_under": 0.6115,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6121,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1546,
"best_odd": 2.375,
"edge": 0.0145,
"ev": -0.0442,
"implied_prob": 0.3879,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4024
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2126,
"best_odd": 1.505,
"edge": -0.02,
"ev": -0.1089,
"implied_prob": 0.6121,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5921
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4024,
"p_final_under": 0.5921,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1905,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1905,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1905,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.1
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Colombia Sub-20 Femenina)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1905,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1905,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 92,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Colombia Sub-20 Femenina at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 29.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Colombia Sub-20 Femenina as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Colombia Sub-20 Femenina",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "92 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Colombia Sub-20 Femenina).",
"Decision strength: 6.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 88,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0265,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.06,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.299,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.32679738562091504,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1337,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+13.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.296,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3705,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.06,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0192,
"ev": -0.0265,
"implied_prob": 0.299,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Colombia Sub-20 Femenina"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1984,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.975,
"edge": 0.0156,
"market_prob": 0.4662,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2183,
"best_odd": 1.725,
"edge": -0.0172,
"ev": -0.1089,
"implied_prob": 0.5338,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5166
},
"p_final": 0.4818,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0484,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1984,
"best_odd": 1.975,
"edge": 0.0156,
"ev": -0.0484,
"implied_prob": 0.4662,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4818
}
},
"edge": 0.0757,
"ev": 0.09,
"implied_prob": 0.4693,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1546,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.375,
"edge": 0.0145,
"market_prob": 0.3879,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1546,
"best_odd": 2.375,
"edge": 0.0145,
"ev": -0.0442,
"implied_prob": 0.3879,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4024
},
"p_final": 0.4024,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0442,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2126,
"best_odd": 1.505,
"edge": -0.02,
"ev": -0.1089,
"implied_prob": 0.6121,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5921
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0935,
"ev": 0.1905,
"implied_prob": 0.3885,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1639483,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1905,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3705,
"draw": 0.296,
"home": 0.3335
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.09,
"implied_prob": 0.4693,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.09,
"implied_prob": 0.4693,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Colombia Sub-20 Femenina",
"home": "Polonia Sub-20 F"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.064275,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1905,
"implied_prob": 0.3885,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0265,
"consensus_ev_display": "-2.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.06,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.299,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.32679738562091504,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1337,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+13.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1639483,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-17T16:30:01.711799+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Copa Mundial Sub-20 Femenina — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polonia Sub-20 F | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Argentina Sub-20 Femenina | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | México Sub-20 F | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 4 | Benín Sub-20 Femenina | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina Sub-20 Femenina | 3 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 6 |
| 2 | Polonia Sub-20 F | 3 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 9 |
| 3 | México Sub-20 F | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 1 |
| 4 | Benín Sub-20 Femenina | 3 | 3 | 14 | -11 | 1 |
