AI correctly predicted the Filipinas Sub-23 win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Filipinas Sub-23 Filipinas Sub-23 ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filipinas Sub-23 | 40.9% | 21.3% | +19.6 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.4% | 20.2% | +9.2 pp | Model Higher |
| Kuwait Sub-23 | 29.7% | 58.5% | -28.8 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Kuwait Sub-23's win probability at 58.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 29.7%, a difference of 28.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Filipinas Sub-23 win 2–1).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Filipinas Sub-23 higher (69.7% vs model 40.9%, 28.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Filipinas Sub-23 win 2–1).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 04:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Filipinas Sub-23 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Kuwait Sub-23 29.6%
- xG · Filipinas Sub-23 1.42 — Kuwait Sub-23 1.18
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 04:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Filipinas Sub-23 4.14 · Draw 4.38 · Kuwait Sub-23 1.51
- Implied 1X2 · Filipinas Sub-23 21.3% · Draw 20.2% · Kuwait Sub-23 58.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 04:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Filipinas Sub-23 4.14 · Draw 4.38 · Kuwait Sub-23 1.51
- Implied 1X2 · Filipinas Sub-23 21.3% · Draw 20.2% · Kuwait Sub-23 58.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 05:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Filipinas Sub-23 win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Cautious / Wait
Etiqueta histórica: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Decisión histórica
Wait
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
49/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (29 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
0/100
Monitoring Confidence
13/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.51
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Filipinas Sub-23 win · Filipinas Sub-23 2–1 Kuwait Sub-23
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +21.8%",
"alert_team": "Filipinas Sub-23",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 28.8,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -28.81,
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"model_team": "Filipinas Sub-23",
"show": true,
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"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 80,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
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"key": "market_disagree",
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"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
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"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
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{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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"label": "Disagree",
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"probability_gap_pp": 28.8,
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},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 28.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
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"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 28.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Filipinas Sub-23, but the model still strongly favours Filipinas Sub-23."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1241,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6956,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 13,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Filipinas Sub-23 at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 21.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Filipinas Sub-23 as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 19.6,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Filipinas Sub-23, but the model still strongly favours Filipinas Sub-23.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Filipinas Sub-23",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
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"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Filipinas Sub-23 \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.27 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +70% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1639461 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.27 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +12.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "13 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Filipinas Sub-23, but the model still strongly favours Filipinas Sub-23.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +70% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 49,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0021,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.2%",
"consensus_odds": 4.14,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2134,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "+19.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24154589371980678,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6957,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+69.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "5/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7142857142857143,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (29 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 10.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.1,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 49,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 28.81,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 28.81,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.18,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.42,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.42,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.42 \u00b7 Away xG 1.18 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +5%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.8,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +21.8%",
"steam_team": "Filipinas Sub-23",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Filipinas Sub-23, but the model still strongly favours Filipinas Sub-23.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 28.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 28.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Filipinas Sub-23, but the model still strongly favours Filipinas Sub-23."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 28.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 28.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Filipinas Sub-23, but the model still strongly favours Filipinas Sub-23."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1241,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6956,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 13,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Filipinas Sub-23 at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 21.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Filipinas Sub-23 as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 19.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Filipinas Sub-23, but the model still strongly favours Filipinas Sub-23.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Filipinas Sub-23",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Filipinas Sub-23 \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.27 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +70% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1639461 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.27 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +12.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "13 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Filipinas Sub-23, but the model still strongly favours Filipinas Sub-23.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +70% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 49,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0021,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.2%",
"consensus_odds": 4.14,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2134,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "+19.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24154589371980678,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6957,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+69.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Filipinas Sub-23 1.42 xG vs Kuwait Sub-23 1.18 \u2192 Filipinas Sub-23 40.9%",
"Market: Kuwait Sub-23 ~21.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Filipinas Sub-23 odds \u2191 +21.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Filipinas Sub-23, but the market has moved away from Filipinas Sub-23.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 19.57,
"fair_prob": 40.91,
"label": "Filipinas Sub-23",
"market_prob": 21.34,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.23,
"fair_prob": 29.4,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 20.17,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -28.81,
"fair_prob": 29.69,
"label": "Kuwait Sub-23",
"market_prob": 58.5,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.12,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.32,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.12,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.68,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.85,
"fair_prob": 54.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 54.95,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.85,
"fair_prob": 45.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 45.05,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -28.81,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.69,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Kuwait Sub-23",
"market_prob_pct": 58.5,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Filipinas Sub-23"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Kuwait Sub-23\u0027s win probability at 58.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 29.7%, a difference of 28.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 28.81,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Filipinas Sub-23",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 21.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+19.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 19.6,
"model_prob_pct": 40.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+19.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 19.6,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 49,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Filipinas Sub-23, but the model still strongly favours Filipinas Sub-23. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Filipinas Sub-23 1.42 xG vs Kuwait Sub-23 1.18 \u2192 Filipinas Sub-23 40.9%",
"Market: Kuwait Sub-23 ~21.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Filipinas Sub-23 odds \u2191 +21.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Filipinas Sub-23, but the market has moved away from Filipinas Sub-23.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -28.81,
"hero_label": "Kuwait Sub-23",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Filipinas Sub-23 odds lengthened \u2191 +21.8%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 28.81,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 11.2 pp (at 40.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 11.2,
"max_prob_pct": 40.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Kuwait Sub-23",
"largest_gap_pp": -28.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices Kuwait Sub-23 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 28.8,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 19.57,
"edge_pp": 19.57,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.91,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Filipinas Sub-23",
"market_prob_pct": 21.34,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": 9.23,
"edge_pp": 9.23,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.4,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 20.17,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -28.81,
"edge_pp": -28.81,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.69,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Kuwait Sub-23",
"market_prob_pct": 58.5,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Kuwait Sub-23 (21.3%).",
"However, Filipinas Sub-23 has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +21.8%, 5/7) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Filipinas Sub-23, Market \u2192 Kuwait Sub-23, while Filipinas Sub-23 odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 66.23,
"closing_odds": 1.51,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 66.23,
"entry_odds": 1.51,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +28.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 28.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +24.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 24.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.9
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.75,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +21.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 21.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 11h 45m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"5/7 books lengthened Filipinas Sub-23 together (21.8% drift, score 80) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Broad multi-book drift \u2014 odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.75",
"4.33",
"3.90"
],
"display": "5.73 \u2192 3.32 \u2192 4.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 11h 45m",
"pick_team": "Filipinas Sub-23",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.73"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.32"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.9,
4.14,
4.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,12.9 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.90"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.90"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.9,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Filipinas Sub-23 odds \u2191 +21.8% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Filipinas Sub-23",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Filipinas Sub-23 odds \u2191 +21.8% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.75,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +21.8%",
"open_odds": 3.9,
"summary": "Market moved away from Filipinas Sub-23 while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Filipinas Sub-23",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 80,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/7",
"current_odds": 4.75,
"move_display": "\u2191 +21.8%",
"open_odds": 3.9,
"pick_team": "Filipinas Sub-23",
"steam_score": 80,
"steam_team_name": "Filipinas Sub-23",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 28.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "kuwait-u23",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Kuwait Sub-23",
"away_team_id": 10940,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/10940.webp",
"away_team_name": "Kuwait Sub-23",
"away_team_public_id": "5IKhoknzon1L0q",
"away_team_slug": "kuwait-u23",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1639461,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Philippines",
"home_team_display_name": "Filipinas Sub-23",
"home_team_id": 10953,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10953.webp",
"home_team_name": "Filipinas Sub-23",
"home_team_public_id": "4ttrssATHRPY1l",
"home_team_slug": "philippines-u23",
"ht.home_team_slug": "philippines-u23",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Juegos Asi\u00e1ticos",
"league_id": 803,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/803.webp",
"league_name": "Juegos Asi\u00e1ticos",
"league_public_id": "48hIWMeCe5IlvT",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-22 05:00:00",
"public_id": "2lwAX6GwGReofk",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Nagoya",
"venue_name": "CS Asset Minato Soccer Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3404,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0982,
"ev": -0.265,
"implied_prob": 0.585,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.585,
"draw": 0.2017,
"home": 0.2134
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.4868
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1723,
"best_odd": 4.38,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0159,
"ev": -0.0471,
"implied_prob": 0.2017,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.585,
"draw": 0.2017,
"home": 0.2134
},
"model_prob": 0.2939,
"p_final": 0.2176
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1411,
"best_odd": 4.14,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0277,
"ev": -0.0021,
"implied_prob": 0.2134,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.585,
"draw": 0.2017,
"home": 0.2134
},
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"p_final": 0.2411
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": -0.3657,
"ev": -0.5522,
"implied_prob": 0.6623,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.38,
"edge": 0.0656,
"ev": 0.2873,
"implied_prob": 0.2283,
"model_prob": 0.2939
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 4.14,
"edge": 0.168,
"ev": 0.6956,
"implied_prob": 0.2415,
"model_prob": 0.4096
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2216,
"alpha_yes": 0.2437,
"best_no_odd": 2.07,
"best_yes_odd": 1.7,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0085,
"edge_yes": -0.0085,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0499,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0776,
"ev_yes": -0.0803,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0864,
"implied_no": 0.4505,
"implied_yes": 0.5495,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2216,
"best_odd": 2.045,
"edge": 0.0023,
"ev": -0.0776,
"implied_prob": 0.4488,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.451
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2437,
"best_odd": 1.665,
"edge": -0.0025,
"ev": -0.0864,
"implied_prob": 0.5512,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.5487
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.451,
"p_final_yes": 0.5487,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2126,
"alpha_under": 0.1933,
"best_over_odd": 1.67,
"best_under_odd": 2.17,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.59,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.16,
"edge_over": -0.0912,
"edge_under": 0.0912,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1951,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1159,
"ev_under": 0.1241,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0449,
"implied_over": 0.5732,
"implied_over_mf": 0.576,
"implied_under": 0.4268,
"implied_under_mf": 0.424,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2126,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.02,
"ev": -0.1159,
"implied_prob": 0.576,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.556
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1933,
"best_odd": 2.16,
"edge": 0.0182,
"ev": -0.0449,
"implied_prob": 0.424,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4422
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.556,
"p_final_under": 0.4422,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1241,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6956,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1241,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.0,
"score_before_guard": 6.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 28.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 28.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Filipinas Sub-23, but the model still strongly favours Filipinas Sub-23."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1241,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6956,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 13,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Filipinas Sub-23 at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 21.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Filipinas Sub-23 as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 19.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Filipinas Sub-23, but the model still strongly favours Filipinas Sub-23.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Filipinas Sub-23",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Filipinas Sub-23 \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.27 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +70% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1639461 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.27 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +12.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +12.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "13 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Filipinas Sub-23, but the model still strongly favours Filipinas Sub-23.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +70% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 49,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0021,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.2%",
"consensus_odds": 4.14,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2134,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "+19.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24154589371980678,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6957,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+69.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
"draw_prob": 0.2939,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4096,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.24
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 4.14,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0277,
"ev": -0.0021,
"implied_prob": 0.2134,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Filipinas Sub-23"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2216,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.045,
"edge": 0.0023,
"market_prob": 0.4488,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2216,
"best_odd": 2.045,
"edge": 0.0023,
"ev": -0.0776,
"implied_prob": 0.4488,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.451
},
"p_final": 0.451,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0776,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2437,
"best_odd": 1.665,
"edge": -0.0025,
"ev": -0.0864,
"implied_prob": 0.5512,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.5487
}
},
"edge": 0.0085,
"ev": -0.0499,
"implied_prob": 0.4505,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1933,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"edge": 0.0182,
"market_prob": 0.424,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2126,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.02,
"ev": -0.1159,
"implied_prob": 0.576,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.556
},
"p_final": 0.4422,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0449,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1933,
"best_odd": 2.16,
"edge": 0.0182,
"ev": -0.0449,
"implied_prob": 0.424,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4422
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0912,
"ev": 0.1241,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4268,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1639461,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1241,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2965,
"draw": 0.2939,
"home": 0.4096
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Kuwait Sub-23",
"home": "Filipinas Sub-23"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.044999,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1241,
"implied_prob": 0.4268,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0021,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.2%",
"consensus_odds": 4.14,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2134,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "+19.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24154589371980678,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6957,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+69.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1639461,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-22T04:59:12.429330+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Juegos Asiáticos — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Japón Sub-23 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Tailandia Sub-23 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Kirguistán Sub-23 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Hong Kong Sub-23 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Japón Sub-23 | 3 | 12 | 0 | +12 | 9 |
| 2 | Tailandia Sub-23 | 3 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 6 |
| 3 | Kirguistán Sub-23 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 3 |
| 4 | Hong Kong Sub-23 | 3 | 1 | 11 | -10 | 0 |
