AI correctly predicted the Víkingur Reykjavík win.
The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Víkingur Reykjavík Víkingur Reykjavík ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-2 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KR Reykjavík | 29.7% | 31.7% | -2.0 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.4% | 21.0% | +8.4 pp | Model Higher |
| Víkingur Reykjavík | 40.9% | 47.3% | -6.4 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 29.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 21.0%, a difference of 8.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Víkingur Reykjavík win 1–2).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Víkingur Reykjavík more conservatively (32.5% vs model 40.9%, 8.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Víkingur Reykjavík win 1–2).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:11 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · KR Reykjavík 29.6% · Draw 29.4% · Víkingur Reykjavík 41.0%
- xG · KR Reykjavík 1.18 — Víkingur Reykjavík 1.42
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:48 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · KR Reykjavík 3.00 · Draw 4.54 · Víkingur Reykjavík 2.01
- Implied 1X2 · KR Reykjavík 31.7% · Draw 21.0% · Víkingur Reykjavík 47.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:11 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · KR Reykjavík 3.00 · Draw 4.54 · Víkingur Reykjavík 2.01
- Implied 1X2 · KR Reykjavík 31.7% · Draw 21.0% · Víkingur Reykjavík 47.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Víkingur Reykjavík win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
57/100
Betting Confidence
78/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
4.54
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Víkingur Reykjavík win · KR Reykjavík 1–2 Víkingur Reykjavík
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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{
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{
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}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.7% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.7% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (V\u00edkingur Reykjav\u00edk).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model"
],
"subline": "No tracked consensus line clears the default +EV bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1008,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.01,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4733,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49751243781094534,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1767,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "3/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.3333333333333333,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 3.3,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 78,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.44,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.44,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.42,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.18,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.42,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.18 \u00b7 Away xG 1.42 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +5%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "KR Reykjav\u00edk",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 81,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "No tracked consensus line clears the default +EV bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (V\u00edkingur Reykjav\u00edk)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (V\u00edkingur Reykjav\u00edk)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.016936,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.016936,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 81,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates V\u00edkingur Reykjav\u00edk at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies V\u00edkingur Reykjav\u00edk as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "V\u00edkingur Reykjav\u00edk",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.7% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.7% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (V\u00edkingur Reykjav\u00edk).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model"
],
"subline": "No tracked consensus line clears the default +EV bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1008,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.01,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4733,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49751243781094534,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1767,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "No tracked consensus line clears the default +EV bar.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: KR Reykjav\u00edk 1.18 xG vs V\u00edkingur Reykjav\u00edk 1.42 \u2192 V\u00edkingur Reykjav\u00edk 40.9%",
"Market: V\u00edkingur Reykjav\u00edk ~47.3% implied",
"Market Steam: KR Reykjav\u00edk +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean V\u00edkingur Reykjav\u00edk with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.02,
"fair_prob": 29.69,
"label": "KR Reykjav\u00edk",
"market_prob": 31.71,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.44,
"fair_prob": 29.4,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 20.96,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.42,
"fair_prob": 40.91,
"label": "V\u00edkingur Reykjav\u00edk",
"market_prob": 47.33,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -31.11,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 79.31,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 31.11,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 20.69,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -23.64,
"fair_prob": 54.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 77.74,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 23.64,
"fair_prob": 45.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 22.26,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 8.44,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.4,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 20.96,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "KR Reykjav\u00edk"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Draw\u0027s win probability at 29.4%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 21.0%, a difference of 8.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 8.44,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "V\u00edkingur Reykjav\u00edk",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 47.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-6.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -6.4,
"model_prob_pct": 40.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-6.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -6.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 78,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "V\u00edkingur Reykjav\u00edk \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 81,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: KR Reykjav\u00edk 1.18 xG vs V\u00edkingur Reykjav\u00edk 1.42 \u2192 V\u00edkingur Reykjav\u00edk 40.9%",
"Market: V\u00edkingur Reykjav\u00edk ~47.3% implied",
"Market Steam: KR Reykjav\u00edk +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean V\u00edkingur Reykjav\u00edk with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 8.44,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"note": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Draw.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.44,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 11.2 pp (at 40.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 11.2,
"max_prob_pct": 40.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 8.4,
"lead": "The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.4,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -2.02,
"edge_pp": -2.02,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.69,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "KR Reykjav\u00edk",
"market_prob_pct": 31.71,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 8.44,
"edge_pp": 8.44,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.4,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 20.96,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -6.42,
"edge_pp": -6.42,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.91,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "V\u00edkingur Reykjav\u00edk",
"market_prob_pct": 47.33,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers V\u00edkingur Reykjav\u00edk (47.3%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 V\u00edkingur Reykjav\u00edk, Market \u2192 V\u00edkingur Reykjav\u00edk, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 22.03,
"closing_odds": 4.54,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 22.03,
"entry_odds": 4.54,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/9",
"current_odds": 2.55,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.55,
"pick_team": "KR Reykjav\u00edk",
"steam_score": 8,
"steam_team_name": "KR Reykjav\u00edk",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "vikingur-reykjavik",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "V\u00edkingur Reykjav\u00edk",
"away_team_id": 278,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/278.webp",
"away_team_name": "V\u00edkingur Reykjav\u00edk",
"away_team_public_id": "0TElQgGHA84DpM",
"away_team_slug": "vikingur-reykjavik",
"country_code": "IS",
"country_display_name": "Iceland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/is.svg",
"country_id": 72,
"country_name": "Iceland",
"fixture_id": 1638627,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Iceland",
"home_team_display_name": "KR Reykjav\u00edk",
"home_team_id": 271,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/271.webp",
"home_team_name": "KR Reykjav\u00edk",
"home_team_public_id": "1wFVntVOfGBGFd",
"home_team_slug": "kr-reykjavik",
"ht.home_team_slug": "kr-reykjavik",
"league_country": "Iceland",
"league_country_display": "Iceland",
"league_display_name": "\u00darvalsdeild",
"league_id": 164,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/164.webp",
"league_name": "\u00darvalsdeild",
"league_public_id": "5e1QzcaSwgVKrK",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 14:00:00",
"public_id": "1041sU2YqgF5C3",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.407,
"best_odd": 2.01,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.026,
"ev": -0.1008,
"implied_prob": 0.4733,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4733,
"draw": 0.2096,
"home": 0.3171
},
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"p_final": 0.4474
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1747,
"best_odd": 4.54,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0147,
"ev": 0.0183,
"implied_prob": 0.2096,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4733,
"draw": 0.2096,
"home": 0.3171
},
"model_prob": 0.2939,
"p_final": 0.2243
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2907,
"best_odd": 3.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.006,
"ev": -0.0666,
"implied_prob": 0.3171,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4733,
"draw": 0.2096,
"home": 0.3171
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.3111
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": -0.088,
"ev": -0.1768,
"implied_prob": 0.4975,
"model_prob": 0.4096
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.54,
"edge": 0.0737,
"ev": 0.3344,
"implied_prob": 0.2203,
"model_prob": 0.2939
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.0,
"edge": -0.0368,
"ev": -0.1104,
"implied_prob": 0.3333,
"model_prob": 0.2965
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.08,
"alpha_yes": 0.1573,
"best_no_odd": 4.58,
"best_yes_odd": 1.21,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.2364,
"edge_yes": -0.2364,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 1.1022,
"ev_no_risk_adj": 0.0041,
"ev_yes": -0.3454,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1237,
"implied_no": 0.2226,
"implied_yes": 0.7774,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 4.265,
"edge": 0.0194,
"ev": 0.0041,
"implied_prob": 0.216,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.2354
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1573,
"best_odd": 1.175,
"edge": -0.0382,
"ev": -0.1237,
"implied_prob": 0.784,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.7458
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.2354,
"p_final_yes": 0.7458,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1298,
"alpha_under": 0.08,
"best_over_odd": 1.2,
"best_under_odd": 5.2,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.125,
"consensus_under_odd": 4.475,
"edge_over": -0.3111,
"edge_under": 0.3111,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.4216,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1473,
"ev_under": 1.6936,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0125,
"implied_over": 0.7931,
"implied_over_mf": 0.7991,
"implied_under": 0.2069,
"implied_under_mf": 0.2009,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1298,
"best_odd": 1.125,
"edge": -0.0412,
"ev": -0.1473,
"implied_prob": 0.7991,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.758
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 4.475,
"edge": 0.0254,
"ev": 0.0125,
"implied_prob": 0.2009,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.2263
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.758,
"p_final_under": 0.2263,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 1.6936,
"best_outlier_ev": 1.6936,
"best_tracked_ev": 1.6936,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model"
],
"score": 6.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model"
],
"score": 6.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (V\u00edkingur Reykjav\u00edk)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.016936,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.016936,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 81,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates V\u00edkingur Reykjav\u00edk at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies V\u00edkingur Reykjav\u00edk as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "V\u00edkingur Reykjav\u00edk",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.7% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.7% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (V\u00edkingur Reykjav\u00edk).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model"
],
"subline": "No tracked consensus line clears the default +EV bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1008,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.01,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4733,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49751243781094534,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1767,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
"draw_prob": 0.2939,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4096,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.24
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.01,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.026,
"ev": -0.1008,
"implied_prob": 0.4733,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "V\u00edkingur Reykjav\u00edk"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 4.265,
"edge": 0.0194,
"market_prob": 0.216,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 4.265,
"edge": 0.0194,
"ev": 0.0041,
"implied_prob": 0.216,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.2354
},
"p_final": 0.2354,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0041,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1573,
"best_odd": 1.175,
"edge": -0.0382,
"ev": -0.1237,
"implied_prob": 0.784,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.7458
}
},
"edge": 0.2364,
"ev": 1.1022,
"implied_prob": 0.2226,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 4.475,
"edge": 0.0254,
"market_prob": 0.2009,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1298,
"best_odd": 1.125,
"edge": -0.0412,
"ev": -0.1473,
"implied_prob": 0.7991,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.758
},
"p_final": 0.2263,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0125,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 4.475,
"edge": 0.0254,
"ev": 0.0125,
"implied_prob": 0.2009,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.2263
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.3111,
"ev": 1.6936,
"implied_prob": 0.2069,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1638627,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 1.6936,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4096,
"draw": 0.2939,
"home": 0.2965
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 1.1022,
"implied_prob": 0.2226,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 1.1022,
"implied_prob": 0.2226,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "V\u00edkingur Reykjav\u00edk",
"home": "KR Reykjav\u00edk"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.614099,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 1.6936,
"implied_prob": 0.2069,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1008,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.01,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4733,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49751243781094534,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1767,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1638627,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T14:11:31.953340+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Úrvalsdeild — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Víkingur Reykjavík | 22 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 53 |
| 2 | Fram Reykjavík | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 45 |
| 3 | KR Reykjavík | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 44 |
| 4 | Breiðablik | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 30 |
| 5 | ÍA Akranes | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 30 |
| 6 | Keflavík | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| 7 | Stjarnan | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| 8 | Valur Reykjavík | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 27 |
| 9 | FH Hafnarfjörður | 22 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 21 |
| 10 | Þór Akureyri | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 21 |
| 11 | KA Akureyri | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 20 |
| 12 | ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar | 22 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 18 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KR Reykjavík | 22 | 74 | 49 | +25 | 44 |
| 2 | Víkingur Reykjavík | 22 | 67 | 21 | +46 | 53 |
| 3 | Fram Reykjavík | 22 | 56 | 42 | +14 | 45 |
| 4 | Breiðablik | 22 | 43 | 41 | +2 | 30 |
| 5 | Stjarnan | 22 | 42 | 50 | -8 | 28 |
| 6 | ÍA Akranes | 22 | 39 | 41 | -2 | 30 |
| 7 | Valur Reykjavík | 22 | 39 | 45 | -6 | 27 |
| 8 | KA Akureyri | 22 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 20 |
| 9 | Keflavík | 22 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 28 |
| 10 | ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar | 22 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 18 |
| 11 | FH Hafnarfjörður | 22 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 21 |
| 12 | Þór Akureyri | 22 | 22 | 50 | -28 | 21 |
