The model missed the final outcome (Sri Lanka win 2–3).
The model had projected Mauricio at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Mauricio Sri Lanka ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mauricio | 36.6% | 49.6% | -13.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.9% | +3.8 pp | Aligned |
| Sri Lanka | 33.8% | 24.5% | +9.2 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Mauricio's win probability at 49.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 13.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Sri Lanka win 2–3.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Mauricio than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Mauricio by 13.0 percentage points (49.6% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Oct 05, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Mauricio 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Sri Lanka 33.8%
- xG · Mauricio 1.33 — Sri Lanka 1.27
-
Oct 05, 2026 · 14:39 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE20
- 1X2 odds · Mauricio 1.88 · Draw 3.60 · Sri Lanka 3.80
- Implied 1X2 · Mauricio 49.6% · Draw 25.9% · Sri Lanka 24.5%
- Bookmaker · bet at home
-
Oct 05, 2026 · 14:54 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Mauricio 1.88 · Draw 3.60 · Sri Lanka 3.80
- Implied 1X2 · Mauricio 49.6% · Draw 25.9% · Sri Lanka 24.5%
- Bookmaker · bet at home
-
Oct 05, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Sri Lanka win · 2–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
35/100
Betting Confidence
45/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.88
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Sri Lanka win · Mauricio 2–3 Sri Lanka
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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{
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}
},
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"raw_pct": -2.2,
"text": "-2.2%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0735,
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},
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"id": "btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
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"tier": "bad_ev",
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},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 13.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.99,
"hero_label": "Mauricio",
"market_prob_pct": 49.6,
"market_team": "Mauricio",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "Mauricio",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
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"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Mauricio)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
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"probability_gap_pp": 13.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Mauricio)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0412,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2827,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Mauricio at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Mauricio as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Mauricio",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Mauricio \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.50 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +28% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1638602 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.50 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +4.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Mauricio).",
"Decision strength: 3.4/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +28% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1858,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.88,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4958,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5319148936170213,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3119,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "monitor",
"books_breadth_display": "3/3",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (13 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 65,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.99,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.99,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.27,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.33,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.33 \u00b7 Away xG 1.27 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Mauricio",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Mauricio)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Mauricio)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0412,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2827,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Mauricio at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Mauricio as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Mauricio",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Mauricio \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.50 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +28% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1638602 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.50 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +4.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Mauricio).",
"Decision strength: 3.4/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +28% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1858,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.88,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4958,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5319148936170213,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3119,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"tier": "monitor"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Mauricio 1.33 xG vs Sri Lanka 1.27 \u2192 Mauricio 36.6%",
"Market: Mauricio ~49.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Mauricio +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Mauricio with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -12.99,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Mauricio",
"market_prob": 49.58,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.75,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.89,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.24,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Sri Lanka",
"market_prob": 24.53,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.76,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 50.96,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.76,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 49.04,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.51,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 55.01,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.51,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 44.99,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -12.99,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Mauricio",
"market_prob_pct": 49.58,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Mauricio"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Mauricio\u0027s win probability at 49.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 13.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 12.99,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Mauricio",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 49.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-13.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -13.0,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-13.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -13.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 65,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Mauricio \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "monitor",
"label": "Monitor - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Mauricio 1.33 xG vs Sri Lanka 1.27 \u2192 Mauricio 36.6%",
"Market: Mauricio ~49.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Mauricio +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Mauricio with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.99,
"hero_label": "Mauricio",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Mauricio is the dominant side.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Mauricio than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Mauricio than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Mauricio than the current fair estimate.",
"Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Mauricio is the dominant side."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Mauricio more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Mauricio (pricing gap 13.0 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.99,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Mauricio",
"largest_gap_pp": -13.0,
"lead": "The closing market prices Mauricio higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 13.0,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -12.99,
"edge_pp": -12.99,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Mauricio",
"market_prob_pct": 49.58,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.75,
"edge_pp": 3.75,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.89,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 9.24,
"edge_pp": 9.24,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Sri Lanka",
"market_prob_pct": 24.53,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Mauricio than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Mauricio (49.6%).",
"Mauricio \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 53.19,
"closing_odds": 1.88,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 53.19,
"entry_odds": 1.88,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/3",
"current_odds": 1.98,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.98,
"pick_team": "Mauricio",
"steam_score": 26,
"steam_team_name": "Mauricio",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "sri-lanka",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Sri Lanka",
"away_team_id": 5166,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/5166.webp",
"away_team_name": "Sri Lanka",
"away_team_public_id": "49blwUggNxchGI",
"away_team_slug": "sri-lanka",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1638602,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Mauricio",
"home_team_display_name": "Mauricio",
"home_team_id": 1497,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1497.webp",
"home_team_name": "Mauricio",
"home_team_public_id": "2g47GLQmFInZnN",
"home_team_slug": "mauritius",
"ht.home_team_slug": "mauritius",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Amistosos",
"league_id": 10,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/10.webp",
"league_name": "Amistosos",
"league_public_id": "3Ezk9HpSM4hKk0",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-05 15:00:00",
"public_id": "2is9N3eTU4OfY6",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2585,
"best_odd": 3.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0238,
"ev": 0.0227,
"implied_prob": 0.2453,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2453,
"draw": 0.2589,
"home": 0.4958
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.2691
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2831,
"best_odd": 3.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0106,
"ev": -0.0296,
"implied_prob": 0.2589,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2453,
"draw": 0.2589,
"home": 0.4958
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2695
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4832,
"best_odd": 1.88,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0627,
"ev": -0.1858,
"implied_prob": 0.4958,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2453,
"draw": 0.2589,
"home": 0.4958
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.4331
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.8,
"edge": 0.0744,
"ev": 0.2827,
"implied_prob": 0.2632,
"model_prob": 0.3375
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.6,
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": 0.0673,
"implied_prob": 0.2778,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.88,
"edge": -0.1659,
"ev": -0.312,
"implied_prob": 0.5319,
"model_prob": 0.366
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2248,
"alpha_yes": 0.2473,
"best_no_odd": 2.15,
"best_yes_odd": 1.7,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0051,
"edge_yes": -0.0051,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0218,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0725,
"ev_yes": -0.0735,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0729,
"implied_no": 0.4499,
"implied_yes": 0.5501,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2248,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0001,
"ev": -0.0725,
"implied_prob": 0.4545,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4546
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2473,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.0001,
"ev": -0.0729,
"implied_prob": 0.5455,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5453
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.4546,
"p_final_yes": 0.5453,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2171,
"alpha_under": 0.2171,
"best_over_odd": 1.91,
"best_under_odd": 2.01,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.87,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.91,
"edge_over": -0.0276,
"edge_under": 0.0276,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0794,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0646,
"ev_under": 0.0412,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0454,
"implied_over": 0.5096,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5053,
"implied_under": 0.4904,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4947,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2171,
"best_odd": 1.87,
"edge": -0.0051,
"ev": -0.0646,
"implied_prob": 0.5053,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5002
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2171,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0051,
"ev": -0.0454,
"implied_prob": 0.4947,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4998
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5002,
"p_final_under": 0.4998,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0412,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2827,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0412,
"confidence": 4.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.4,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.4,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.4
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "monitor",
"final_decision": {
"action": "monitor",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Mauricio)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0412,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2827,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.4,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 52,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Mauricio at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Mauricio as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Monitor - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\ud83d\udc41",
"label": "Monitor \u2014 validate before acting",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Mauricio",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Mauricio \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.50 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +28% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1638602 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.50 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +4.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +4.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +4.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +4.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+4.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Mauricio).",
"Decision strength: 3.4/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +28% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 65,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Validation pending \u2014 monitor the line before acting.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "monitor",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1858,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.88,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4958,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5319148936170213,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3119,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0412,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4904,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "under",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0227,
"implied_prob": 0.2453,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Sri Lanka",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.88,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0627,
"ev": -0.1858,
"implied_prob": 0.4958,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Mauricio"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2248,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0001,
"market_prob": 0.4545,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2248,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.0001,
"ev": -0.0725,
"implied_prob": 0.4545,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4546
},
"p_final": 0.4546,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0725,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2473,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.0001,
"ev": -0.0729,
"implied_prob": 0.5455,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5453
}
},
"edge": 0.0051,
"ev": -0.0218,
"implied_prob": 0.4499,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2171,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0051,
"market_prob": 0.4947,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2171,
"best_odd": 1.87,
"edge": -0.0051,
"ev": -0.0646,
"implied_prob": 0.5053,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5002
},
"p_final": 0.4998,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0454,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2171,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": 0.0051,
"ev": -0.0454,
"implied_prob": 0.4947,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4998
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0276,
"ev": 0.0412,
"implied_prob": 0.4904,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1638602,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0412,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3375,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.366
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Sri Lanka",
"home": "Mauricio"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1858,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.88,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4958,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5319148936170213,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3119,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1638602,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-05T14:59:12.787989+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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