The model missed the final outcome (Cerrito win 1–3).
The model had projected Montevideo Wanderers at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Montevideo Wanderers Cerrito ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montevideo Wanderers | 35.2% | 43.1% | -8.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 30.9% | -1.3 pp | Aligned |
| Cerrito | 35.2% | 25.9% | +9.2 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Cerrito's win probability at 35.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 25.9%, a difference of 9.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Cerrito win 1–3.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Cerrito.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Montevideo Wanderers; match finished Cerrito
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Montevideo Wanderers by 9.2 percentage points (26.0% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 23, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Montevideo Wanderers 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Cerrito 35.2%
- xG · Montevideo Wanderers 1.30 — Cerrito 1.30
-
Sep 23, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Montevideo Wanderers 1.88 · Draw 3.09 · Cerrito 3.96
- Implied 1X2 · Montevideo Wanderers 48.0% · Draw 29.2% · Cerrito 22.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 23, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Montevideo Wanderers 2.10 · Draw 2.93 · Cerrito 3.49
- Implied 1X2 · Montevideo Wanderers 43.1% · Draw 30.9% · Cerrito 25.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 23, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Cerrito win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
74/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
53/100
Betting Confidence
77/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.49
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Cerrito win · Montevideo Wanderers 1–3 Cerrito
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
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"ev": -0.1604,
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},
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},
{
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}
],
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"alert_breadth_note": "8/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -16.7%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.2,
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"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
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"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 94,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
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"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
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"key": "steam",
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{
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],
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"probability_gap_pp": 9.2,
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},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
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},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3625,
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"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
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"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Montevideo Wanderers at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Montevideo Wanderers as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Montevideo Wanderers.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Montevideo Wanderers",
"no_primary_reasons": {
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],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
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"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +36.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +36.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +36.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+36.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Montevideo Wanderers.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Montevideo Wanderers.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1604,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4313,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.47619047619047616,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2612,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "8/8",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 80,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 77,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.22,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.22,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.3,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.3,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.3,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.30 \u00b7 Away xG 1.30 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -16.7,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -16.7%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Montevideo Wanderers.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Montevideo Wanderers."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Montevideo Wanderers."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3625,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3625,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Montevideo Wanderers at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Montevideo Wanderers as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Montevideo Wanderers.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Montevideo Wanderers",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +36.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +36.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +36.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+36.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Montevideo Wanderers.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Montevideo Wanderers.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1604,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4313,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.47619047619047616,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2612,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Montevideo Wanderers.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Montevideo Wanderers 1.30 xG vs Cerrito 1.30 \u2192 Montevideo Wanderers 35.2%",
"Market: Montevideo Wanderers ~43.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Draw \u2193 -16.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Montevideo Wanderers, but sharp money moved toward Draw.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -7.96,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Montevideo Wanderers",
"market_prob": 43.13,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.26,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.91,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.22,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Cerrito",
"market_prob": 25.95,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.95,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 37.25,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.95,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 62.75,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.35,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 41.15,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.35,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 58.85,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 9.22,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Cerrito",
"market_prob_pct": 25.95,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Cerrito\u0027s win probability at 35.2%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 25.9%, a difference of 9.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 9.22,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Montevideo Wanderers",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 43.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-7.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -7.9,
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-7.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -7.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 77,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Montevideo Wanderers. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Montevideo Wanderers 1.30 xG vs Cerrito 1.30 \u2192 Montevideo Wanderers 35.2%",
"Market: Montevideo Wanderers ~43.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Draw \u2193 -16.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Montevideo Wanderers, but sharp money moved toward Draw.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 9.22,
"hero_label": "Cerrito",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Draw odds shortened \u2193 -16.7%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Draw, with odds shortening by 16.7%.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Cerrito.",
"note": "Buying interest on Draw \u2014 odds shortened by 16.7%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Cerrito.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Draw, with odds shortening by 16.7%.",
"Buying interest on Draw \u2014 odds shortened by 16.7%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Cerrito.",
"At the same time, Draw has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 16.7%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/8) supports the current market view on Draw."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.22,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.0 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.0,
"max_prob_pct": 35.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Cerrito",
"largest_gap_pp": 9.2,
"lead": "The model rates Cerrito considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.2,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -7.96,
"edge_pp": -7.96,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Montevideo Wanderers",
"market_prob_pct": 43.13,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.26,
"edge_pp": -1.26,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.91,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 9.22,
"edge_pp": 9.22,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Cerrito",
"market_prob_pct": 25.95,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Draw \u2014 odds shortened by 16.7%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Montevideo Wanderers (43.1%).",
"However, Draw has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -16.7%, 8/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Montevideo Wanderers, Market \u2192 Montevideo Wanderers, Recent sharp money \u2192 Draw.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 28.65,
"closing_odds": 3.49,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 28.65,
"entry_odds": 3.49,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -16.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -16.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -14.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -7.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.7
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -16.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 16.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 25h 44m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"8/8 books synchronized on Draw (16.7% steam, score 94) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -16.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.60",
"3.27",
"2.93"
],
"display": "3.60 \u2192 2.90 \u2192 3.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 25h 44m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.6,
2.93,
3.09,
3.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 18.7,18.0 37.3,13.7 56.0,16.1",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.93"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.6,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Draw \u2193 -16.7% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Draw \u2193 -16.7% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.0,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -16.7%",
"open_odds": 3.6,
"summary": "Market moved toward Draw while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 94,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"move_display": "\u2193 -16.7%",
"open_odds": 3.6,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 94,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "cerrito",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Cerrito",
"away_team_id": 2367,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2367.webp",
"away_team_name": "Cerrito",
"away_team_public_id": "5Bm6c4QGSvtDvi",
"away_team_slug": "cerrito",
"country_code": "UY",
"country_display_name": "Uruguay",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/uy.svg",
"country_id": 162,
"country_name": "Uruguay",
"fixture_id": 1638261,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Uruguay",
"home_team_display_name": "Montevideo Wanderers",
"home_team_id": 2360,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2360.webp",
"home_team_name": "Montevideo Wanderers",
"home_team_public_id": "54eGZHeRhVcnI4",
"home_team_slug": "wanderers",
"ht.home_team_slug": "wanderers",
"league_country": "Uruguay",
"league_country_display": "Uruguay",
"league_display_name": "Copa Uruguay",
"league_id": 930,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/930.webp",
"league_name": "Copa Uruguay",
"league_public_id": "2Mk5eFfXjSLT95",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-23 23:00:00",
"public_id": "571Zbcf9DY5JGK",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2585,
"best_odd": 3.49,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0238,
"ev": -0.011,
"implied_prob": 0.2595,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2595,
"draw": 0.3091,
"home": 0.4313
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.2834
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4414,
"best_odd": 2.93,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0056,
"ev": -0.1106,
"implied_prob": 0.3091,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2595,
"draw": 0.3091,
"home": 0.4313
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.3035
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3963,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0315,
"ev": -0.1604,
"implied_prob": 0.4313,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2595,
"draw": 0.3091,
"home": 0.4313
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.3998
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.49,
"edge": 0.0652,
"ev": 0.2277,
"implied_prob": 0.2865,
"model_prob": 0.3518
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.93,
"edge": -0.0448,
"ev": -0.1314,
"implied_prob": 0.3413,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": -0.1244,
"ev": -0.2613,
"implied_prob": 0.4762,
"model_prob": 0.3518
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1998,
"alpha_yes": 0.1453,
"best_no_odd": 1.6,
"best_yes_odd": 2.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1335,
"edge_yes": 0.1335,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.272,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1241,
"ev_yes": 0.3625,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0427,
"implied_no": 0.5885,
"implied_yes": 0.4115,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1998,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0257,
"ev": -0.1241,
"implied_prob": 0.5836,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5579
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1453,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": -0.0427,
"implied_prob": 0.4164,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4351
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.5579,
"p_final_yes": 0.4351,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1492,
"alpha_under": 0.2052,
"best_over_odd": 2.62,
"best_under_odd": 1.55,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.49,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.45,
"edge_over": 0.1095,
"edge_under": -0.1095,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2628,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0413,
"ev_under": -0.1971,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1175,
"implied_over": 0.3725,
"implied_over_mf": 0.368,
"implied_under": 0.6275,
"implied_under_mf": 0.632,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1492,
"best_odd": 2.49,
"edge": 0.017,
"ev": -0.0413,
"implied_prob": 0.368,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.385
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2052,
"best_odd": 1.45,
"edge": -0.0234,
"ev": -0.1175,
"implied_prob": 0.632,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6086
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.385,
"p_final_under": 0.6086,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3625,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3625,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3625,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.2,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Montevideo Wanderers."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3625,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3625,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Montevideo Wanderers at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Montevideo Wanderers as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Montevideo Wanderers.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Montevideo Wanderers",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +36.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +36.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +36.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+36.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Montevideo Wanderers.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Montevideo Wanderers.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1604,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4313,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.47619047619047616,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2612,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3518,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.0
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0315,
"ev": -0.1604,
"implied_prob": 0.4313,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Montevideo Wanderers"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1453,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0187,
"market_prob": 0.4164,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1998,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0257,
"ev": -0.1241,
"implied_prob": 0.5836,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5579
},
"p_final": 0.4351,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0427,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1453,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": -0.0427,
"implied_prob": 0.4164,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4351
}
},
"edge": 0.1335,
"ev": 0.3625,
"implied_prob": 0.4115,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1492,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"edge": 0.017,
"market_prob": 0.368,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1492,
"best_odd": 2.49,
"edge": 0.017,
"ev": -0.0413,
"implied_prob": 0.368,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.385
},
"p_final": 0.385,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0413,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2052,
"best_odd": 1.45,
"edge": -0.0234,
"ev": -0.1175,
"implied_prob": 0.632,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6086
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1095,
"ev": 0.2628,
"implied_prob": 0.3725,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1638261,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3625,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3518,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3518
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2628,
"implied_prob": 0.3725,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2628,
"implied_prob": 0.3725,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Cerrito",
"home": "Montevideo Wanderers"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.197563,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3625,
"implied_prob": 0.4115,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1604,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4313,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.47619047619047616,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2612,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-26.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1638261,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-23T22:59:12.226843+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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