AI correctly predicted the SalPa win.
The match finished 6–4, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (10 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 SalPa SalPa ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 6-4 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SalPa | 39.0% | 41.4% | -2.4 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.5% | 25.5% | +4.0 pp | Aligned |
| Tampere United | 31.5% | 33.1% | -1.6 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (SalPa win 6–4).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 10 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (10 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (SalPa win 6–4).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:05 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · SalPa 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Tampere United 31.5%
- xG · SalPa 1.38 — Tampere United 1.22
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 12:36 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · SalPa 2.25 · Draw 3.62 · Tampere United 2.80
- Implied 1X2 · SalPa 41.2% · Draw 25.6% · Tampere United 33.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:05 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · SalPa 2.27 · Draw 3.68 · Tampere United 2.84
- Implied 1X2 · SalPa 41.4% · Draw 25.5% · Tampere United 33.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result SalPa win · 6–4
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
77/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
79/100
Betting Confidence
80/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.68
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
SalPa win · SalPa 6–4 Tampere United
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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"ev": -0.0843,
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},
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},
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"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "SalPa",
"sort_key": 1795.275,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"alert_team": "Tampere United",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 4.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 4.01,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 41.4,
"market_team": "SalPa",
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"model_team": "SalPa",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 53,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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"gap_pp": 4.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
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"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SalPa)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SalPa)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.554,
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"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 93,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates SalPa at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies SalPa as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "SalPa",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +55.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +55.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "93 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+55.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SalPa).",
"Decision strength: 7.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 89,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0843,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4139,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.44052863436123346,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1154,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "6/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8571428571428571,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.6,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 89,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.01,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.01,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.22,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.38,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.38,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.38 \u00b7 Away xG 1.22 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.9,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"steam_team": "Tampere United",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 93,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SalPa).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SalPa)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SalPa)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.554,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.554,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 93,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates SalPa at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies SalPa as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "SalPa",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +55.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +55.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "93 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+55.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SalPa).",
"Decision strength: 7.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 89,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0843,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4139,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.44052863436123346,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1154,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: SalPa 1.38 xG vs Tampere United 1.22 \u2192 SalPa 39.0%",
"Market: SalPa ~41.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Tampere United odds \u2191 +6.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean SalPa with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.42,
"fair_prob": 38.97,
"label": "SalPa",
"market_prob": 41.39,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.01,
"fair_prob": 29.54,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.53,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.6,
"fair_prob": 31.48,
"label": "Tampere United",
"market_prob": 33.08,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -19.36,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 67.56,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 19.36,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 32.44,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.62,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 69.02,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.62,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 30.98,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 4.01,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.53,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Tampere United"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.01,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "SalPa",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 41.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-2.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -2.4,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-2.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -2.4,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 89,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "SalPa \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 93,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: SalPa 1.38 xG vs Tampere United 1.22 \u2192 SalPa 39.0%",
"Market: SalPa ~41.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Tampere United odds \u2191 +6.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean SalPa with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 4.01,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Tampere United odds lengthened \u2191 +6.9%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Tampere United has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Tampere United \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.9% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Tampere United has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Tampere United \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.9% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Tampere United has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/7) supports the current market view on Tampere United."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.01,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 4.0,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -2.42,
"edge_pp": -2.42,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "SalPa",
"market_prob_pct": 41.39,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.01,
"edge_pp": 4.01,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.53,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.6,
"edge_pp": -1.6,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Tampere United",
"market_prob_pct": 33.08,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Tampere United \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.9% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers SalPa (41.4%).",
"However, Tampere United has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +6.9%, 6/7) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"SalPa \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 27.17,
"closing_odds": 3.68,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 27.17,
"entry_odds": 3.68,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.0
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "6/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.62,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 6.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 16h 5m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on Tampere United (6.9%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.84",
"2.65",
"2.45"
],
"display": "2.80 \u2192 2.40 \u2192 2.62",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 16h 5m",
"pick_team": "Tampere United",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.62"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.45,
2.84,
2.8,
2.62
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,0.0 37.3,1.8 56.0,10.2",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.45"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.45"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.84"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.62"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.45,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 6/7 sportsbooks on Tampere United",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Tampere United",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.62,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"open_odds": 2.45,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Tampere United",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 53,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/7",
"current_odds": 2.62,
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"open_odds": 2.45,
"pick_team": "Tampere United",
"steam_score": 53,
"steam_team_name": "Tampere United",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "tampere-united",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Tampere United",
"away_team_id": 9190,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9190.webp",
"away_team_name": "Tampere United",
"away_team_public_id": "2QoFz2Dor3xROW",
"away_team_slug": "tampere-united",
"country_code": "FI",
"country_display_name": "Finland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/fi.svg",
"country_id": 55,
"country_name": "Finland",
"fixture_id": 1638165,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Finland",
"home_team_display_name": "SalPa",
"home_team_id": 9189,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9189.webp",
"home_team_name": "SalPa",
"home_team_public_id": "2cKMPMkDA5ih7D",
"home_team_slug": "salpa",
"ht.home_team_slug": "salpa",
"league_country": "Finland",
"league_country_display": "Finland",
"league_display_name": "Ykk\u00f6nen",
"league_id": 245,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/245.webp",
"league_name": "Ykk\u00f6nen",
"league_public_id": "23VocpfBdizxzg",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 13:00:00",
"public_id": "33tt84TssOMicW",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Salo",
"venue_name": "Salon urheilupuisto"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4393,
"best_odd": 2.84,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.007,
"ev": -0.0803,
"implied_prob": 0.3308,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3308,
"draw": 0.2553,
"home": 0.4139
},
"model_prob": 0.3149,
"p_final": 0.3238
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.282,
"best_odd": 3.68,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0113,
"ev": -0.0189,
"implied_prob": 0.2553,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3308,
"draw": 0.2553,
"home": 0.4139
},
"model_prob": 0.2954,
"p_final": 0.2666
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4337,
"best_odd": 2.27,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0105,
"ev": -0.0843,
"implied_prob": 0.4139,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3308,
"draw": 0.2553,
"home": 0.4139
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"p_final": 0.4034
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.84,
"edge": -0.0372,
"ev": -0.1056,
"implied_prob": 0.3521,
"model_prob": 0.3149
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.68,
"edge": 0.0237,
"ev": 0.0871,
"implied_prob": 0.2717,
"model_prob": 0.2954
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.27,
"edge": -0.0509,
"ev": -0.1155,
"implied_prob": 0.4405,
"model_prob": 0.3897
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1405,
"alpha_yes": 0.1932,
"best_no_odd": 3.1,
"best_yes_odd": 1.36,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1462,
"edge_yes": -0.1462,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.4136,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0174,
"ev_yes": -0.2602,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1162,
"implied_no": 0.3098,
"implied_yes": 0.6902,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1405,
"best_odd": 2.975,
"edge": 0.0206,
"ev": -0.0174,
"implied_prob": 0.3097,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3303
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1932,
"best_odd": 1.335,
"edge": -0.0283,
"ev": -0.1162,
"implied_prob": 0.6903,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.662
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.3303,
"p_final_yes": 0.662,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1769,
"alpha_under": 0.1286,
"best_over_odd": 1.4,
"best_under_odd": 3.0,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.36,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.79,
"edge_over": -0.1936,
"edge_under": 0.1936,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3252,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1315,
"ev_under": 0.554,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0174,
"implied_over": 0.6756,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6723,
"implied_under": 0.3244,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3277,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1769,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0337,
"ev": -0.1315,
"implied_prob": 0.6723,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6386
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1286,
"best_odd": 2.79,
"edge": 0.0245,
"ev": -0.0174,
"implied_prob": 0.3277,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3522
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6386,
"p_final_under": 0.3522,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.554,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.554,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.554,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 7.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 7.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.1
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SalPa)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.554,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.554,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 93,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates SalPa at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies SalPa as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "SalPa",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +55.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +55.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "93 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+55.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (SalPa).",
"Decision strength: 7.1/10"
],
"reliability_score": 89,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0843,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4139,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.44052863436123346,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1154,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.16
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0105,
"ev": -0.0843,
"implied_prob": 0.4139,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "SalPa"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1405,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.975,
"edge": 0.0206,
"market_prob": 0.3097,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1405,
"best_odd": 2.975,
"edge": 0.0206,
"ev": -0.0174,
"implied_prob": 0.3097,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3303
},
"p_final": 0.3303,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0174,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1932,
"best_odd": 1.335,
"edge": -0.0283,
"ev": -0.1162,
"implied_prob": 0.6903,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.662
}
},
"edge": 0.1462,
"ev": 0.4136,
"implied_prob": 0.3098,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1286,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"edge": 0.0245,
"market_prob": 0.3277,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1769,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0337,
"ev": -0.1315,
"implied_prob": 0.6723,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6386
},
"p_final": 0.3522,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0174,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1286,
"best_odd": 2.79,
"edge": 0.0245,
"ev": -0.0174,
"implied_prob": 0.3277,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3522
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1936,
"ev": 0.554,
"implied_prob": 0.3244,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1638165,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.554,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3149,
"draw": 0.2954,
"home": 0.3897
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4136,
"implied_prob": 0.3098,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4136,
"implied_prob": 0.3098,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Tampere United",
"home": "SalPa"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.20088,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.554,
"implied_prob": 0.3244,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0843,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4139,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.44052863436123346,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1154,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1638165,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T13:05:06.785212+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Ykkönen — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampere United | 25 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 50 |
| 2 | Rops | 25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 44 |
| 3 | SalPa | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 42 |
| 4 | OLS | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 41 |
| 5 | VJS | 25 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 40 |
| 6 | FC Jazz | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 39 |
| 7 | PKKU | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 38 |
| 8 | JJK | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 31 |
| 9 | TPV | 25 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 27 |
| 10 | Inter Turku II | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 23 |
| 11 | KPV-j | 25 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 18 |
| 12 | KuPS Akatemia | 24 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 15 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampere United | 25 | 58 | 26 | +32 | 50 |
| 2 | JJK | 25 | 55 | 53 | +2 | 31 |
| 3 | Rops | 25 | 52 | 37 | +15 | 44 |
| 4 | SalPa | 25 | 52 | 45 | +7 | 42 |
| 5 | OLS | 25 | 50 | 37 | +13 | 41 |
| 6 | PKKU | 25 | 45 | 37 | +8 | 38 |
| 7 | VJS | 25 | 44 | 32 | +12 | 40 |
| 8 | KuPS Akatemia | 24 | 41 | 58 | -17 | 15 |
| 9 | FC Jazz | 25 | 38 | 32 | +6 | 39 |
| 10 | Inter Turku II | 24 | 36 | 53 | -17 | 23 |
| 11 | TPV | 25 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 27 |
| 12 | KPV-j | 25 | 27 | 75 | -48 | 18 |
