AI correctly predicted the Caracas FC win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Caracas FC Caracas FC ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trujillanos FC | 34.7% | 36.4% | -1.7 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 30.3% | -0.7 pp | Aligned |
| Caracas FC | 35.6% | 33.3% | +2.4 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, la inclinación direccional del modelo coincidió con el resultado (Caracas FC win 0–1).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Caracas FC win 0–1).
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Trujillanos FC 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Caracas FC 35.6%
- xG · Trujillanos FC 1.29 — Caracas FC 1.31
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Trujillanos FC 2.52 · Draw 3.01 · Caracas FC 2.75
- Implied 1X2 · Trujillanos FC 36.3% · Draw 30.4% · Caracas FC 33.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Trujillanos FC 2.55 · Draw 3.06 · Caracas FC 2.79
- Implied 1X2 · Trujillanos FC 36.4% · Draw 30.3% · Caracas FC 33.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 21:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Caracas FC win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Validated
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
78/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Market Compatibility
30/100
Monitoring Confidence
35/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.79
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Caracas FC win · Trujillanos FC 0–1 Caracas FC
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0436,
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"ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": -4.4,
"text": "-4.4%"
},
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"text": "-4.4%"
},
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"raw_edge_display": "+2.3 percentage points",
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"sort_key": 1789.1,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "3/5",
"alert_breadth_note": "3/5 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -10.9%",
"alert_team": "Trujillanos FC",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 2.4,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 2.37,
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"market_prob_pct": 33.3,
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"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_team": "Caracas FC",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
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"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
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"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
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}
],
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"label": "Disagree",
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"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Trujillanos FC, but the model still strongly favours Caracas FC."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Trujillanos FC, but the model still strongly favours Caracas FC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0218,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0218,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Caracas FC at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Caracas FC as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Trujillanos FC, but the model still strongly favours Caracas FC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Caracas FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.2% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.2% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Trujillanos FC, but the model still strongly favours Caracas FC.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Trujillanos FC, but the model still strongly favours Caracas FC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0436,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3327,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35842293906810035,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.007,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "3/5",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 77,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 2.37,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 2.37,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.31,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.29,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.29 \u00b7 Away xG 1.31 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.9,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -10.9%",
"steam_team": "Trujillanos FC",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Trujillanos FC, but the model still strongly favours Caracas FC.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Trujillanos FC, but the model still strongly favours Caracas FC."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Trujillanos FC, but the model still strongly favours Caracas FC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0218,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0218,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Caracas FC at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Caracas FC as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Trujillanos FC, but the model still strongly favours Caracas FC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Caracas FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.2% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.2% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Trujillanos FC, but the model still strongly favours Caracas FC.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Trujillanos FC, but the model still strongly favours Caracas FC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0436,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3327,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35842293906810035,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.007,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Trujillanos FC, but the model still strongly favours Caracas FC.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Trujillanos FC 1.29 xG vs Caracas FC 1.31 \u2192 Caracas FC 35.6%",
"Market: Trujillanos FC ~33.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Trujillanos FC \u2193 -10.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Caracas FC, but sharp money moved toward Trujillanos FC.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -1.7,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "Trujillanos FC",
"market_prob": 36.4,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.68,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.33,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.37,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Caracas FC",
"market_prob": 33.27,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.04,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.16,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.04,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.84,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.75,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.75,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.75,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 49.25,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 2.37,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Caracas FC",
"market_prob_pct": 33.27,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Trujillanos FC"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.37,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Caracas FC",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 33.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+2.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 2.3,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+2.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 2.3,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 77,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Trujillanos FC, but the model still strongly favours Caracas FC. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Trujillanos FC 1.29 xG vs Caracas FC 1.31 \u2192 Caracas FC 35.6%",
"Market: Trujillanos FC ~33.3% implied",
"Market Steam: Trujillanos FC \u2193 -10.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Caracas FC, but sharp money moved toward Trujillanos FC.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 2.37,
"hero_label": "Caracas FC",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Trujillanos FC odds shortened \u2193 -10.9%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Trujillanos FC, with odds shortening by 10.9%.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on Trujillanos FC \u2014 odds shortened by 10.9%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Trujillanos FC, with odds shortening by 10.9%.",
"Buying interest on Trujillanos FC \u2014 odds shortened by 10.9%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Trujillanos FC has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 10.9%."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 2.37,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Caracas FC",
"largest_gap_pp": 2.4,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.4,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -1.7,
"edge_pp": -1.7,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Trujillanos FC",
"market_prob_pct": 36.4,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.68,
"edge_pp": -0.68,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.33,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.37,
"edge_pp": 2.37,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Caracas FC",
"market_prob_pct": 33.27,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Trujillanos FC \u2014 odds shortened by 10.9%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Trujillanos FC (33.3%).",
"However, Trujillanos FC has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -10.9%, 3/5).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Caracas FC, Market \u2192 Trujillanos FC, Recent sharp money \u2192 Trujillanos FC.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 35.84,
"closing_odds": 2.79,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 35.84,
"entry_odds": 2.79,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.6
}
],
"books_total": 5,
"breadth_display": "3/5",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -10.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 31h 56m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Trujillanos FC (10.9%, 3/5) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.75",
"2.60",
"2.45"
],
"display": "2.75 \u2192 2.45 \u2192 2.45",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 31h 56m",
"pick_team": "Trujillanos FC",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.75"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.45"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.45"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.75,
2.55,
2.52,
2.45
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 18.7,12.0 37.3,13.8 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.75"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.45"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.45"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.75,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Trujillanos FC",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.45,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -10.9%",
"open_odds": 2.75,
"summary": "Market moved toward Trujillanos FC while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Trujillanos FC",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/5",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"move_display": "\u2193 -10.9%",
"open_odds": 2.75,
"pick_team": "Trujillanos FC",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_team_name": "Trujillanos FC",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 2.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Caracas FC",
"away_team_id": 2808,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2808.webp",
"away_team_name": "Caracas FC",
"away_team_public_id": "2rCc31YF2sjIh0",
"away_team_slug": "caracas-fc",
"country_code": "VE",
"country_display_name": "Venezuela",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ve.svg",
"country_id": 165,
"country_name": "Venezuela",
"fixture_id": 1638138,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Venezuela",
"home_team_display_name": "Trujillanos FC",
"home_team_id": 2815,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2815.webp",
"home_team_name": "Trujillanos FC",
"home_team_public_id": "0YF9CmxCzVmmbr",
"home_team_slug": "trujillanos-fc",
"league_country": "Venezuela",
"league_country_display": "Venezuela",
"league_display_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n de Venezuela",
"league_id": 299,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/299.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n de Venezuela",
"league_public_id": "0uLuRYrdncTjSf",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 21:00:00",
"public_id": "5OwT1EpcGxqNJE",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Valera",
"venue_name": "Estadio Jose Alberto Perez"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4343,
"best_odd": 2.79,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0101,
"ev": -0.0436,
"implied_prob": 0.3327,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3327,
"draw": 0.3033,
"home": 0.364
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.3428
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2971,
"best_odd": 3.06,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0019,
"ev": -0.0778,
"implied_prob": 0.3033,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3327,
"draw": 0.3033,
"home": 0.364
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.3014
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4387,
"best_odd": 2.55,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0073,
"ev": -0.0905,
"implied_prob": 0.364,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3327,
"draw": 0.3033,
"home": 0.364
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.3567
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.79,
"edge": -0.0025,
"ev": -0.0069,
"implied_prob": 0.3584,
"model_prob": 0.3559
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.06,
"edge": -0.03,
"ev": -0.0918,
"implied_prob": 0.3268,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.55,
"edge": -0.0449,
"ev": -0.1144,
"implied_prob": 0.3922,
"model_prob": 0.3473
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2124,
"alpha_yes": 0.2124,
"best_no_odd": 1.91,
"best_yes_odd": 1.83,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0375,
"edge_yes": 0.0375,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.131,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1012,
"ev_yes": -0.0026,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0721,
"implied_no": 0.4925,
"implied_yes": 0.5075,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2124,
"best_odd": 1.855,
"edge": -0.008,
"ev": -0.1012,
"implied_prob": 0.4925,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4845
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2124,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": 0.008,
"ev": -0.0721,
"implied_prob": 0.5075,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5155
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.4845,
"p_final_yes": 0.5155,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2113,
"alpha_under": 0.2325,
"best_over_odd": 2.12,
"best_under_odd": 1.7,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.1,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.66,
"edge_over": 0.0404,
"edge_under": -0.0404,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0218,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0549,
"ev_under": -0.1194,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0885,
"implied_over": 0.4416,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4415,
"implied_under": 0.5584,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5585,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2113,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0086,
"ev": -0.0549,
"implied_prob": 0.4415,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4501
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2325,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"edge": -0.0094,
"ev": -0.0885,
"implied_prob": 0.5585,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5491
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4501,
"p_final_under": 0.5491,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0218,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0218,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0218,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 2.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.4,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Trujillanos FC, but the model still strongly favours Caracas FC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0218,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0218,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Caracas FC at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 33.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Caracas FC as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Trujillanos FC, but the model still strongly favours Caracas FC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Caracas FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.2% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.2% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Trujillanos FC, but the model still strongly favours Caracas FC.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Trujillanos FC, but the model still strongly favours Caracas FC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0436,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3327,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35842293906810035,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.007,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
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"ev": 0.0218,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4416,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "over",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
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"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0101,
"ev": -0.0436,
"implied_prob": 0.3327,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Caracas FC"
},
"btts": {
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"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.8,
"edge": 0.008,
"market_prob": 0.5075,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
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"best_odd": 1.855,
"edge": -0.008,
"ev": -0.1012,
"implied_prob": 0.4925,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4845
},
"p_final": 0.5155,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0721,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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"edge": 0.008,
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}
},
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"ev": -0.0026,
"implied_prob": 0.5075,
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"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2113,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0086,
"market_prob": 0.4415,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
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"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0086,
"ev": -0.0549,
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},
"p_final": 0.4501,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0549,
"under": {
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"edge": -0.0094,
"ev": -0.0885,
"implied_prob": 0.5585,
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},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0404,
"ev": 0.0218,
"implied_prob": 0.4416,
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"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1638138,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0218,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3473
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Caracas FC",
"home": "Trujillanos FC"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0436,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.4%",
"consensus_odds": 2.79,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3327,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.35842293906810035,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.007,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-0.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1638138,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T20:59:29.426117+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Primera División de Venezuela — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metropolitanos FC | 24 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 53 |
| 2 | Deportivo Táchira | 24 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 47 |
| 3 | Real Esppor Club | 24 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 43 |
| 4 | UCV | 24 | 11 | 5 | 8 | 38 |
| 5 | Carabobo FC | 24 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 37 |
| 6 | Portuguesa FC | 24 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 37 |
| 7 | Puerto Cabello | 24 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 36 |
| 8 | Estudiantes de Mérida | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 36 |
| 9 | Caracas FC | 24 | 5 | 11 | 8 | 26 |
| 10 | Monagas SC | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 25 |
| 11 | Zamora FC | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 25 |
| 12 | Rayo Zuliano | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 25 |
| 13 | Trujillanos FC | 24 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 15 |
| 14 | Academia Anzoátegui | 24 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 14 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metropolitanos FC | 24 | 41 | 19 | +22 | 53 |
| 2 | Deportivo Táchira | 24 | 41 | 26 | +15 | 47 |
| 3 | Real Esppor Club | 24 | 36 | 22 | +14 | 43 |
| 4 | UCV | 24 | 36 | 31 | +5 | 38 |
| 5 | Carabobo FC | 24 | 35 | 22 | +13 | 37 |
| 6 | Portuguesa FC | 24 | 34 | 24 | +10 | 37 |
| 7 | Estudiantes de Mérida | 24 | 33 | 30 | +3 | 36 |
| 8 | Puerto Cabello | 24 | 31 | 23 | +8 | 36 |
| 9 | Rayo Zuliano | 24 | 30 | 46 | -16 | 25 |
| 10 | Monagas SC | 24 | 26 | 35 | -9 | 25 |
| 11 | Caracas FC | 24 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 26 |
| 12 | Zamora FC | 24 | 24 | 35 | -11 | 25 |
| 13 | Trujillanos FC | 24 | 21 | 44 | -23 | 15 |
| 14 | Academia Anzoátegui | 24 | 21 | 45 | -24 | 14 |
