The model missed the final outcome (Galata win 2–1).
The model had projected Yalova Yeşilovaspor at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Yalova Yeşilovaspor Galata ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galata | 32.9% | 48.0% | -15.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 23.7% | +5.9 pp | Model Higher |
| Yalova Yeşilovaspor | 37.5% | 28.3% | +9.3 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Galata's win probability at 48.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 15.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Galata win 2–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Galata than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Yalova Yeşilovaspor by 15.2 percentage points (52.7% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Galata 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Yalova Yeşilovaspor 37.6%
- xG · Galata 1.25 — Yalova Yeşilovaspor 1.35
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Galata 2.16 · Draw 3.57 · Yalova Yeşilovaspor 2.82
- Implied 1X2 · Galata 42.2% · Draw 25.5% · Yalova Yeşilovaspor 32.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Galata 1.89 · Draw 3.83 · Yalova Yeşilovaspor 3.21
- Implied 1X2 · Galata 48.0% · Draw 23.7% · Yalova Yeşilovaspor 28.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Galata win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
55/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (15 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
8/100
Monitoring Confidence
19/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.89
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Galata win · Galata 2–1 Yalova Yeşilovaspor
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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},
"ev_available": true,
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"text": "+2.4%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1171,
"ev_yes_display": {
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},
"featured": false,
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"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 3.21,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0153,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.5,
"text": "-1.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2828,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0153,
"max_ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": -1.5,
"text": "-1.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.206,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+20.6%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor",
"sort_key": 1796.175,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"alert_team": "Galata",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 15.2,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -15.17,
"hero_label": "Galata",
"market_prob_pct": 28.3,
"market_team": "Galata",
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"model_team": "Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 62,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.2,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor), but pricing still diverges by 15.2 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.2,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor), but pricing still diverges by 15.2 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2059,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.3,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 53,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.33 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +21% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1637566 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.33 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor), but pricing still diverges by 15.2 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.3/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +21% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 67,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0153,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.21,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2828,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3115264797507788,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.206,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+20.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "7/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.875,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (15 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.8,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 67,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 15.17,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 15.17,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.35,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.25,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.25 \u00b7 Away xG 1.35 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"steam_team": "Galata",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.2,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor), but pricing still diverges by 15.2 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.2,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor), but pricing still diverges by 15.2 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2059,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.3,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 53,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.33 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +21% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1637566 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.33 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor), but pricing still diverges by 15.2 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.3/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +21% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 67,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0153,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.21,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2828,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3115264797507788,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.206,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+20.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Galata 1.25 xG vs Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor 1.35 \u2192 Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor 37.5%",
"Market: Galata ~28.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Galata odds \u2191 +10.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor, but market pricing diverges by 15 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -15.17,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "Galata",
"market_prob": 48.02,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.91,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.7,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.26,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor",
"market_prob": 28.28,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.7,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.9,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.7,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.1,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.26,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.76,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.26,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.24,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -15.17,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Galata",
"market_prob_pct": 48.02,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Galata"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Galata\u0027s win probability at 48.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 15.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 15.17,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 28.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+9.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 9.2,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+9.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 67,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Galata 1.25 xG vs Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor 1.35 \u2192 Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor 37.5%",
"Market: Galata ~28.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Galata odds \u2191 +10.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor, but market pricing diverges by 15 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -15.17,
"hero_label": "Galata",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Galata odds lengthened \u2191 +10.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Galata than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Galata.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Galata than the current fair estimate.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Galata."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Galata more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Galata (\u2191 +10.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/8) supports the current market view on Galata."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 15.17,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Galata",
"largest_gap_pp": -15.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices Galata higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 15.2,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -15.17,
"edge_pp": -15.17,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Galata",
"market_prob_pct": 48.02,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.91,
"edge_pp": 5.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.7,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 9.26,
"edge_pp": 9.26,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor",
"market_prob_pct": 28.28,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Galata.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Galata (28.3%).",
"However, Galata has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +10.0%, 7/8) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor, Market \u2192 Galata, while Galata odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 52.91,
"closing_odds": 1.89,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 52.91,
"entry_odds": 1.89,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.2
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 16h 12m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Galata (10.0%, 7/8) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.20",
"2.04",
"1.89"
],
"display": "2.42 \u2192 2.00 \u2192 2.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 16h 12m",
"pick_team": "Galata",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.42"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.0,
1.89,
2.16,
2.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,11.6 18.7,18.0 37.3,2.3 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.89"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.0,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Galata odds \u2191 +10.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Galata",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Galata odds \u2191 +10.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.2,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Galata",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 62,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"pick_team": "Galata",
"steam_score": 62,
"steam_team_name": "Galata",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 15.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "yalova-yesilovaspor",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor",
"away_team_id": 24957,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/24957.webp",
"away_team_name": "Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor",
"away_team_public_id": "0mDRVdQTcOyQiN",
"away_team_slug": "yalova-yesilovaspor",
"country_code": "TR",
"country_display_name": "Turkey",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/tr.svg",
"country_id": 157,
"country_name": "Turkey",
"fixture_id": 1637566,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Turkey",
"home_team_display_name": "Galata",
"home_team_id": 26465,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/26465.webp",
"home_team_name": "Galata",
"home_team_public_id": "61LOYTUpvmVlwN",
"home_team_slug": "galata",
"ht.home_team_slug": "galata",
"league_country": "Turkey",
"league_country_display": "Turkey",
"league_display_name": "Copa de Turqu\u00eda",
"league_id": 206,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/206.webp",
"league_name": "Copa de Turqu\u00eda",
"league_name_canonical": "Copa de Turqu\u00eda",
"league_public_id": "3cUozzmajtnwDl",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-16 12:00:00",
"public_id": "4lGgwS21shTMdk",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2582,
"best_odd": 3.21,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.024,
"ev": -0.0153,
"implied_prob": 0.2828,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2828,
"draw": 0.237,
"home": 0.4802
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.3067
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2736,
"best_odd": 3.83,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.016,
"ev": -0.0309,
"implied_prob": 0.237,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2828,
"draw": 0.237,
"home": 0.4802
},
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.253
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4636,
"best_odd": 1.89,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0703,
"ev": -0.2251,
"implied_prob": 0.4802,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2828,
"draw": 0.237,
"home": 0.4802
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.41
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.21,
"edge": 0.0641,
"ev": 0.2059,
"implied_prob": 0.3115,
"model_prob": 0.3757
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.83,
"edge": 0.0345,
"ev": 0.1323,
"implied_prob": 0.2611,
"model_prob": 0.2956
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.89,
"edge": -0.2004,
"ev": -0.3788,
"implied_prob": 0.5291,
"model_prob": 0.3287
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1708,
"alpha_yes": 0.2349,
"best_no_odd": 2.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0326,
"edge_yes": -0.0326,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0237,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0609,
"ev_yes": -0.1171,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0864,
"implied_no": 0.4224,
"implied_yes": 0.5776,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1708,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0058,
"ev": -0.0609,
"implied_prob": 0.4211,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4269
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2349,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.008,
"ev": -0.0864,
"implied_prob": 0.5789,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.571
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.4269,
"p_final_yes": 0.571,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.228,
"alpha_under": 0.2073,
"best_over_odd": 1.75,
"best_under_odd": 2.1,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.725,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.98,
"edge_over": -0.057,
"edge_under": 0.057,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1565,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0988,
"ev_under": 0.0878,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0566,
"implied_over": 0.539,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5344,
"implied_under": 0.461,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4656,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.228,
"best_odd": 1.725,
"edge": -0.012,
"ev": -0.0988,
"implied_prob": 0.5344,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5225
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2073,
"best_odd": 1.98,
"edge": 0.0109,
"ev": -0.0566,
"implied_prob": 0.4656,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4765
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5225,
"p_final_under": 0.4765,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2059,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.3,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.3,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.3,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.3
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.2,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor), but pricing still diverges by 15.2 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2059,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.3,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 53,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.33 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +21% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1637566 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.33 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "67 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor), but pricing still diverges by 15.2 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.3/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +21% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 67,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0153,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.21,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2828,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3115264797507788,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.206,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+20.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.21,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.024,
"ev": -0.0153,
"implied_prob": 0.2828,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1708,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0058,
"market_prob": 0.4211,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1708,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0058,
"ev": -0.0609,
"implied_prob": 0.4211,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4269
},
"p_final": 0.4269,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0609,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2349,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.008,
"ev": -0.0864,
"implied_prob": 0.5789,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.571
}
},
"edge": 0.0326,
"ev": 0.0237,
"implied_prob": 0.4224,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2073,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.98,
"edge": 0.0109,
"market_prob": 0.4656,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.228,
"best_odd": 1.725,
"edge": -0.012,
"ev": -0.0988,
"implied_prob": 0.5344,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5225
},
"p_final": 0.4765,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0566,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2073,
"best_odd": 1.98,
"edge": 0.0109,
"ev": -0.0566,
"implied_prob": 0.4656,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4765
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.057,
"ev": 0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.461,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1637566,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0878,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3757,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3287
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Yalova Ye\u015filovaspor",
"home": "Galata"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.031836,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.461,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0153,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.21,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2828,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3115264797507788,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.206,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+20.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1637566,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-16T11:59:28.876863+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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