The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Independiente Rivadavia at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Independiente Rivadavia Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Rivadavia | 38.5% | 42.3% | -3.8 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 33.2% | -3.6 pp | Aligned |
| Atlético Tucumán | 31.9% | 24.5% | +7.5 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Atlético Tucumán's win probability at 31.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 24.5%, a difference of 7.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Atlético Tucumán.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Independiente Rivadavia; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Independiente Rivadavia by 7.5 percentage points (31.0% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Independiente Rivadavia 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Atlético Tucumán 31.9%
- xG · Independiente Rivadavia 1.37 — Atlético Tucumán 1.23
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Independiente Rivadavia 2.22 · Draw 2.83 · Atlético Tucumán 3.84
- Implied 1X2 · Independiente Rivadavia 42.3% · Draw 33.2% · Atlético Tucumán 24.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Independiente Rivadavia 2.22 · Draw 2.83 · Atlético Tucumán 3.84
- Implied 1X2 · Independiente Rivadavia 42.3% · Draw 33.2% · Atlético Tucumán 24.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 22:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
62/100
Betting Confidence
78/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.84
AI Fair Odds
1.84
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Independiente Rivadavia 1–1 Atlético Tucumán
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Probability Calibration
- Expected: 54.4%
- Historical Bucket: 50–55% — Building sample
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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},
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},
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"tier": "best",
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"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Rivadavia.",
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0967,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.7,
"text": "-9.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4233,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0162,
"max_ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": 1.6,
"text": "+1.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1462,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.6%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"sort_key": 5212.96,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
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"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/11",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/11 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"alert_team": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.5,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 7.47,
"hero_label": "Atl\u00e9tico Tucum\u00e1n",
"market_prob_pct": 42.3,
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"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"model_team": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Rivadavia."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
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"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
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"summary": "The market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Rivadavia."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1905,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2269,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Independiente Rivadavia at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Independiente Rivadavia as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Rivadavia.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Independiente Rivadavia \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.26 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +23% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1637267 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.26 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +19.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +19.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Rivadavia.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +23% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Rivadavia.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0967,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4233,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4504504504504504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1462,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "9/11",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8181818181818182,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.2,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 78,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.47,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.47,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.23,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.37,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.37,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.37 \u00b7 Away xG 1.23 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"steam_team": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Rivadavia.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Rivadavia."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Rivadavia."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1905,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2269,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Independiente Rivadavia at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Independiente Rivadavia as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Rivadavia.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Independiente Rivadavia \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.26 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +23% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1637267 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.26 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +19.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +19.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Rivadavia.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +23% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Rivadavia.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0967,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4233,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4504504504504504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1462,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Rivadavia.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Independiente Rivadavia 1.37 xG vs Atl\u00e9tico Tucum\u00e1n 1.23 \u2192 Independiente Rivadavia 38.5%",
"Market: Independiente Rivadavia ~42.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Independiente Rivadavia odds \u2191 +10.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Independiente Rivadavia, but the market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -3.84,
"fair_prob": 38.49,
"label": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"market_prob": 42.33,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.63,
"fair_prob": 29.57,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 33.2,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.47,
"fair_prob": 31.94,
"label": "Atl\u00e9tico Tucum\u00e1n",
"market_prob": 24.47,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.6,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.6,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.6,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.4,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.05,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 46.35,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.05,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 53.65,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 7.47,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Atl\u00e9tico Tucum\u00e1n",
"market_prob_pct": 24.47,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Independiente Rivadavia"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Atl\u00e9tico Tucum\u00e1n\u0027s win probability at 31.9%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 24.5%, a difference of 7.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 7.47,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 42.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-3.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -3.8,
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-3.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -3.8,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 78,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Rivadavia. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Independiente Rivadavia 1.37 xG vs Atl\u00e9tico Tucum\u00e1n 1.23 \u2192 Independiente Rivadavia 38.5%",
"Market: Independiente Rivadavia ~42.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Independiente Rivadavia odds \u2191 +10.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Independiente Rivadavia, but the market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 7.47,
"hero_label": "Atl\u00e9tico Tucum\u00e1n",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Independiente Rivadavia odds lengthened \u2191 +10.0%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Independiente Rivadavia has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Atl\u00e9tico Tucum\u00e1n.",
"note": "Drift away from Independiente Rivadavia \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.0% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Atl\u00e9tico Tucum\u00e1n.",
"However, Independiente Rivadavia has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Independiente Rivadavia \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.0% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Atl\u00e9tico Tucum\u00e1n.",
"At the same time, Independiente Rivadavia has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/11) supports the current market view on Independiente Rivadavia."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.47,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.6 pp (at 38.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Atl\u00e9tico Tucum\u00e1n",
"largest_gap_pp": 7.5,
"lead": "The model rates Atl\u00e9tico Tucum\u00e1n considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.5,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -3.84,
"edge_pp": -3.84,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"market_prob_pct": 42.33,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.63,
"edge_pp": -3.63,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 33.2,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.47,
"edge_pp": 7.47,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Atl\u00e9tico Tucum\u00e1n",
"market_prob_pct": 24.47,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Independiente Rivadavia \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.0% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Independiente Rivadavia (42.3%).",
"Independiente Rivadavia odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +10.0%, 9/11) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Independiente Rivadavia, Market \u2192 Independiente Rivadavia, while Independiente Rivadavia odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 26.04,
"closing_odds": 3.84,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 26.04,
"entry_odds": 3.84,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.3
}
],
"books_total": 11,
"breadth_display": "9/11",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 159h",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Independiente Rivadavia (10.0%, 9/11) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Modest lengthening \u2014 treat as drift tracking rather than steam."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.22",
"2.11",
"2.00"
],
"display": "2.30 \u2192 2.00 \u2192 2.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 159h",
"pick_team": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.0,
2.22,
2.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,1.6",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.22"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.0,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.2,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"summary": "Market moved away from Independiente Rivadavia while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/11",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"open_odds": 2.0,
"pick_team": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_team_name": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "atletico-tucuman",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Atl\u00e9tico Tucum\u00e1n",
"away_team_id": 455,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/455.webp",
"away_team_name": "Atl\u00e9tico Tucum\u00e1n",
"away_team_public_id": "2PZPauzOkOIZM4",
"away_team_slug": "atletico-tucuman",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1637267,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"home_team_id": 473,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/473.webp",
"home_team_name": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"home_team_public_id": "26COo6kYlPVeVq",
"home_team_slug": "independ-rivadavia",
"ht.home_team_slug": "independ-rivadavia",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Copa Argentina",
"league_id": 130,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/130.webp",
"league_name": "Copa Argentina",
"league_public_id": "2J1SeeOUJIRkls",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-16 22:00:00",
"public_id": "2vFg3w9I1npl6j",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Los Andes",
"venue_name": "Estadio Regional de Los Andes"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2663,
"best_odd": 3.84,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0199,
"ev": 0.0162,
"implied_prob": 0.2447,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2447,
"draw": 0.332,
"home": 0.4233
},
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.2646
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4256,
"best_odd": 2.83,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0154,
"ev": -0.1039,
"implied_prob": 0.332,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2447,
"draw": 0.332,
"home": 0.4233
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.3166
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4239,
"best_odd": 2.22,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0164,
"ev": -0.0967,
"implied_prob": 0.4233,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2447,
"draw": 0.332,
"home": 0.4233
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"p_final": 0.4069
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.84,
"edge": 0.0591,
"ev": 0.2269,
"implied_prob": 0.2604,
"model_prob": 0.3195
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.83,
"edge": -0.0575,
"ev": -0.1627,
"implied_prob": 0.3534,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.22,
"edge": -0.0658,
"ev": -0.1461,
"implied_prob": 0.4505,
"model_prob": 0.3846
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2275,
"alpha_yes": 0.2068,
"best_no_odd": 1.8,
"best_yes_odd": 2.1,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0805,
"edge_yes": 0.0805,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1792,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1105,
"ev_yes": 0.1424,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0438,
"implied_no": 0.5365,
"implied_yes": 0.4635,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2275,
"best_odd": 1.71,
"edge": -0.0189,
"ev": -0.1105,
"implied_prob": 0.5391,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5202
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2068,
"best_odd": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0172,
"ev": -0.0438,
"implied_prob": 0.4609,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4781
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"p_final_no": 0.5202,
"p_final_yes": 0.4781,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.163,
"alpha_under": 0.2241,
"best_over_odd": 2.47,
"best_under_odd": 1.62,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.39,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.53,
"edge_over": 0.086,
"edge_under": -0.086,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1905,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0314,
"ev_under": -0.1608,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0986,
"implied_over": 0.396,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3903,
"implied_under": 0.604,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6097,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.163,
"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0149,
"ev": -0.0314,
"implied_prob": 0.3903,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4053
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2241,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0206,
"ev": -0.0986,
"implied_prob": 0.6097,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5891
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4053,
"p_final_under": 0.5891,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1905,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2269,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1905,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Rivadavia."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1905,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2269,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Independiente Rivadavia at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Independiente Rivadavia as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Rivadavia.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Independiente Rivadavia \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.26 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +23% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1637267 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.26 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +19.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +19.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Rivadavia.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65",
"Outlier price +23% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Independiente Rivadavia, but the model still strongly favours Independiente Rivadavia.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0967,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4233,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4504504504504504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1462,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3846,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.14
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0164,
"ev": -0.0967,
"implied_prob": 0.4233,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Independiente Rivadavia"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2068,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0172,
"market_prob": 0.4609,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2275,
"best_odd": 1.71,
"edge": -0.0189,
"ev": -0.1105,
"implied_prob": 0.5391,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5202
},
"p_final": 0.4781,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0438,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2068,
"best_odd": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0172,
"ev": -0.0438,
"implied_prob": 0.4609,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4781
}
},
"edge": 0.0805,
"ev": 0.1424,
"implied_prob": 0.4635,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.163,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0149,
"market_prob": 0.3903,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.163,
"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": 0.0149,
"ev": -0.0314,
"implied_prob": 0.3903,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4053
},
"p_final": 0.4053,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0314,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2241,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0206,
"ev": -0.0986,
"implied_prob": 0.6097,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5891
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.086,
"ev": 0.1905,
"implied_prob": 0.396,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1637267,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1905,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3195,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3846
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1905,
"implied_prob": 0.396,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1905,
"implied_prob": 0.396,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Atl\u00e9tico Tucum\u00e1n",
"home": "Independiente Rivadavia"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.077466,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1424,
"implied_prob": 0.4635,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0967,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.22,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4233,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4504504504504504,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1462,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1637267,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-16T21:59:32.028137+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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