The model missed the final outcome (Uberlândia win 0–2).
The model had projected ASA at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 ASA Uberlândia ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASA | 40.9% | 44.2% | -3.3 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.4% | 33.4% | -4.0 pp | Aligned |
| Uberlândia | 29.7% | 22.4% | +7.3 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Uberlândia's win probability at 29.7%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 22.4%, a difference of 7.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Uberlândia win 0–2.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Uberlândia.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on ASA by 7.3 percentage points (33.6% vs model 40.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · ASA 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Uberlândia 29.6%
- xG · ASA 1.42 — Uberlândia 1.18
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 19:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · ASA 2.05 · Draw 2.71 · Uberlândia 4.04
- Implied 1X2 · ASA 44.2% · Draw 33.4% · Uberlândia 22.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · ASA 2.05 · Draw 2.71 · Uberlândia 4.04
- Implied 1X2 · ASA 44.2% · Draw 33.4% · Uberlândia 22.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Uberlândia win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Observe
Decisión histórica
No Primary Bet
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
63/100
Betting Confidence
78/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
4.04
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Uberlândia win · ASA 0–2 Uberlândia
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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],
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"alert_breadth_note": "1/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -9.8%",
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"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
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},
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"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
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"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
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"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates ASA at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.2%.",
"why": [
{
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "ASA",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +40.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +40.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
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"key": "extreme_gap",
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"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+40.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (ASA).",
"Decision strength: 7.4/10"
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1227,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4417,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48780487804878053,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1603,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-16.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "1/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.1111111111111111,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.1,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 74,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.28,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.28,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.18,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.42,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.42,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.42 \u00b7 Away xG 1.18 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +5%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.8,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -9.8%",
"steam_team": "ASA",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 77,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (ASA).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (ASA)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (ASA)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4026,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4026,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 77,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates ASA at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies ASA as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "ASA",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +40.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +40.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+40.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (ASA).",
"Decision strength: 7.4/10"
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1227,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4417,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48780487804878053,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1603,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-16.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: ASA 1.42 xG vs Uberl\u00e2ndia 1.18 \u2192 ASA 40.9%",
"Market: ASA ~44.2% implied",
"Market Steam: ASA \u2193 -9.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean ASA with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -3.26,
"fair_prob": 40.91,
"label": "ASA",
"market_prob": 44.17,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.01,
"fair_prob": 29.4,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 33.41,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.28,
"fair_prob": 29.69,
"label": "Uberl\u00e2ndia",
"market_prob": 22.41,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.63,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 34.57,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.63,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 65.43,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.88,
"fair_prob": 54.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 40.22,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.88,
"fair_prob": 45.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 59.78,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 7.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.69,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Uberl\u00e2ndia",
"market_prob_pct": 22.41,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "ASA"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Uberl\u00e2ndia\u0027s win probability at 29.7%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 22.4%, a difference of 7.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 7.28,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "ASA",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 44.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-3.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -3.3,
"model_prob_pct": 40.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-3.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -3.3,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 74,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "ASA \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 77,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: ASA 1.42 xG vs Uberl\u00e2ndia 1.18 \u2192 ASA 40.9%",
"Market: ASA ~44.2% implied",
"Market Steam: ASA \u2193 -9.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean ASA with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 7.28,
"hero_label": "Uberl\u00e2ndia",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "ASA odds shortened \u2193 -9.8%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on ASA, with odds shortening by 9.8%. Confirmation remains limited (1/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Uberl\u00e2ndia.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Uberl\u00e2ndia.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on ASA, with odds shortening by 9.8%. Confirmation remains limited (1/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Uberl\u00e2ndia.",
"At the same time, ASA has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 9.8%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/9), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.28,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 11.2 pp (at 40.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 11.2,
"max_prob_pct": 40.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Uberl\u00e2ndia",
"largest_gap_pp": 7.3,
"lead": "The model rates Uberl\u00e2ndia considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.3,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -3.26,
"edge_pp": -3.26,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.91,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "ASA",
"market_prob_pct": 44.17,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.01,
"edge_pp": -4.01,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.4,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 33.41,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.28,
"edge_pp": 7.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.69,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Uberl\u00e2ndia",
"market_prob_pct": 22.41,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers ASA (44.2%).",
"ASA has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -9.8%, 1/9).",
"ASA \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 24.75,
"closing_odds": 4.04,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 24.75,
"entry_odds": 4.04,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.8
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "1/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 1.85,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -9.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 9.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 64h 10m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on ASA (9.8%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.05",
"1.95",
"1.85"
],
"display": "2.05 \u2192 1.79 \u2192 1.85",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 64h 10m",
"pick_team": "ASA",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.05"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.79"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.85"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.05,
1.85
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.05"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.85"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.05"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.85"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.05,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "ASA",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 1.85,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -9.8%",
"open_odds": 2.05,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "ASA",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 28,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/9",
"current_odds": 1.85,
"move_display": "\u2193 -9.8%",
"open_odds": 2.05,
"pick_team": "ASA",
"steam_score": 28,
"steam_team_name": "ASA",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Uberl\u00e2ndia",
"away_team_id": 1196,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1196.webp",
"away_team_name": "Uberl\u00e2ndia",
"away_team_public_id": "0TB5DMRrjsrc3m",
"away_team_slug": "uberlandia",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_display_name": "Brazil",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_id": 24,
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1636907,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_display_name": "ASA",
"home_team_id": 1207,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1207.webp",
"home_team_name": "ASA",
"home_team_public_id": "5oFIINZ6HhPqts",
"home_team_slug": "asa",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_country_display": "Brazil",
"league_display_name": "Serie D de Brasil",
"league_id": 76,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/76.webp",
"league_name": "Serie D de Brasil",
"league_public_id": "0bqvJVfRyRrXjK",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 20:00:00",
"public_id": "54YR697EaWTBfS",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Arapiraca",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1783,
"best_odd": 4.04,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0129,
"ev": -0.0423,
"implied_prob": 0.2241,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2241,
"draw": 0.3341,
"home": 0.4417
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.237
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4228,
"best_odd": 2.71,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.017,
"ev": -0.1406,
"implied_prob": 0.3341,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2241,
"draw": 0.3341,
"home": 0.4417
},
"model_prob": 0.2939,
"p_final": 0.3171
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4283,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0138,
"ev": -0.1227,
"implied_prob": 0.4417,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2241,
"draw": 0.3341,
"home": 0.4417
},
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"p_final": 0.4279
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.04,
"edge": 0.049,
"ev": 0.198,
"implied_prob": 0.2475,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.71,
"edge": -0.0751,
"ev": -0.2035,
"implied_prob": 0.369,
"model_prob": 0.2939
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": -0.0783,
"ev": -0.1604,
"implied_prob": 0.4878,
"model_prob": 0.4096
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1932,
"alpha_yes": 0.1405,
"best_no_odd": 1.65,
"best_yes_odd": 2.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1388,
"edge_yes": 0.1388,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2427,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1345,
"ev_yes": 0.3525,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0448,
"implied_no": 0.5978,
"implied_yes": 0.4022,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1932,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0283,
"ev": -0.1345,
"implied_prob": 0.6053,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.577
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1405,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": 0.0206,
"ev": -0.0448,
"implied_prob": 0.3947,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.4153
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.577,
"p_final_yes": 0.4153,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1417,
"alpha_under": 0.1948,
"best_over_odd": 2.91,
"best_under_odd": 1.53,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.62,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.35,
"edge_over": 0.1363,
"edge_under": -0.1363,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.4026,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0564,
"ev_under": -0.2075,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1464,
"implied_over": 0.3457,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3401,
"implied_under": 0.6543,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6599,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1417,
"best_odd": 2.62,
"edge": 0.0201,
"ev": -0.0564,
"implied_prob": 0.3401,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3602
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1948,
"best_odd": 1.35,
"edge": -0.0277,
"ev": -0.1464,
"implied_prob": 0.6599,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6323
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3602,
"p_final_under": 0.6323,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4026,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4026,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.4026,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.4,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.4,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.4
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (ASA)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4026,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4026,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 77,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates ASA at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 44.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies ASA as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "ASA",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +40.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +40.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+40.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (ASA).",
"Decision strength: 7.4/10"
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1227,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4417,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48780487804878053,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1603,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-16.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
"draw_prob": 0.2939,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4096,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.24
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0138,
"ev": -0.1227,
"implied_prob": 0.4417,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "ASA"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1405,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.3,
"edge": 0.0206,
"market_prob": 0.3947,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.541,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1932,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0283,
"ev": -0.1345,
"implied_prob": 0.6053,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.577
},
"p_final": 0.4153,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0448,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1405,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": 0.0206,
"ev": -0.0448,
"implied_prob": 0.3947,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.4153
}
},
"edge": 0.1388,
"ev": 0.3525,
"implied_prob": 0.4022,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1417,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.62,
"edge": 0.0201,
"market_prob": 0.3401,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1417,
"best_odd": 2.62,
"edge": 0.0201,
"ev": -0.0564,
"implied_prob": 0.3401,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3602
},
"p_final": 0.3602,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0564,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1948,
"best_odd": 1.35,
"edge": -0.0277,
"ev": -0.1464,
"implied_prob": 0.6599,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6323
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1363,
"ev": 0.4026,
"implied_prob": 0.3457,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1636907,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.4026,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2965,
"draw": 0.2939,
"home": 0.4096
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4026,
"implied_prob": 0.3457,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4026,
"implied_prob": 0.3457,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Uberl\u00e2ndia",
"home": "ASA"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.190702,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3525,
"implied_prob": 0.4022,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.541,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1227,
"consensus_ev_display": "-12.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4417,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-3.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -3.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.48780487804878053,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1603,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-16.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1636907,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T19:59:48.660406+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Serie D de Brasil — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manauara | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 22 |
| 2 | Nacional AM | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 3 | São Raimundo | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | Monte Roraima | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Manaus FC | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | GAS | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nacional AM | 10 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 20 |
| 2 | Manauara | 10 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 22 |
| 3 | Monte Roraima | 10 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 10 |
| 4 | São Raimundo | 10 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 13 |
| 5 | Manaus FC | 10 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 10 |
| 6 | GAS | 10 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 5 |
