The model missed the final outcome (Líšeň win 0–3).
The model had projected Vítkovice at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Vítkovice Líšeň ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-3 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vítkovice | 35.2% | 17.8% | +17.4 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 18.4% | +11.3 pp | Model Edge |
| Líšeň | 35.2% | 63.8% | -28.7 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Líšeň's win probability at 63.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 28.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Líšeň win 0–3.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Vítkovice; match finished Líšeň
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Vítkovice by 28.7 percentage points (63.9% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Vítkovice 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Líšeň 35.2%
- xG · Vítkovice 1.30 — Líšeň 1.30
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 13:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Vítkovice 5.06 · Draw 4.90 · Líšeň 1.41
- Implied 1X2 · Vítkovice 17.8% · Draw 18.4% · Líšeň 63.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Vítkovice 5.06 · Draw 4.90 · Líšeň 1.41
- Implied 1X2 · Vítkovice 17.8% · Draw 18.4% · Líšeň 63.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 16, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Líšeň win · 0–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Cautious / Wait
Etiqueta histórica: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Decisión histórica
Wait
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
49/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (29 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
0/100
Monitoring Confidence
13/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.41
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Líšeň win · Vítkovice 0–3 Líšeň
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
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"text": "+16.0%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1661,
"ev_yes_display": {
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},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10144.27,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
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},
{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"consensus_odds": 5.06,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0302,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.0,
"text": "+3.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.1779,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0302,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.0,
"text": "+3.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7801,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+78.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "V\u00edtkovice",
"sort_key": 10027.18,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -30.0%",
"alert_team": "V\u00edtkovice",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 28.7,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -28.67,
"hero_label": "L\u00ed\u0161e\u0148",
"market_prob_pct": 17.8,
"market_team": "L\u00ed\u0161e\u0148",
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"model_team": "V\u00edtkovice",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 99,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 28.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 28.7,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (V\u00edtkovice), but pricing still diverges by 28.7 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 28.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 28.7,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (V\u00edtkovice), but pricing still diverges by 28.7 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6576,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.78,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.1,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 40,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates V\u00edtkovice at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 17.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies V\u00edtkovice as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 17.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "V\u00edtkovice",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side V\u00edtkovice \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.44 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +78% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1636730 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.44 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +65.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +65.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +65.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +65.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "40 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+65.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (V\u00edtkovice), but pricing still diverges by 28.7 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.1/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +78% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0302,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.0%",
"consensus_odds": 5.06,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1779,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.19762845849802374,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7801,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+78.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "8/8",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (29 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 10.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 62,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 28.67,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 28.67,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.3,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.3,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.3,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.30 \u00b7 Away xG 1.30 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -30.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -30.0%",
"steam_team": "V\u00edtkovice",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market favour the same side (V\u00edtkovice), but pricing still diverges by 28.7 pp.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 28.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 28.7,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (V\u00edtkovice), but pricing still diverges by 28.7 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 28.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 28.7,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (V\u00edtkovice), but pricing still diverges by 28.7 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6576,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.78,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.1,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 40,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates V\u00edtkovice at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 17.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies V\u00edtkovice as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 17.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "V\u00edtkovice",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side V\u00edtkovice \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.44 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +78% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1636730 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.44 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +65.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +65.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +65.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +65.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "40 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+65.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (V\u00edtkovice), but pricing still diverges by 28.7 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.1/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +78% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0302,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.0%",
"consensus_odds": 5.06,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1779,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.19762845849802374,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7801,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+78.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: V\u00edtkovice 1.30 xG vs L\u00ed\u0161e\u0148 1.30 \u2192 V\u00edtkovice 35.2%",
"Market: L\u00ed\u0161e\u0148 ~17.8% implied",
"Market Steam: V\u00edtkovice \u2193 -30.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans V\u00edtkovice, but market pricing diverges by 29 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 17.38,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "V\u00edtkovice",
"market_prob": 17.79,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.28,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 18.37,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -28.67,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "L\u00ed\u0161e\u0148",
"market_prob": 63.84,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -20.62,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 68.82,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 20.62,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 31.18,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.36,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.86,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.36,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.14,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -28.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "L\u00ed\u0161e\u0148",
"market_prob_pct": 63.84,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "V\u00edtkovice"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates L\u00ed\u0161e\u0148\u0027s win probability at 63.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 28.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 28.67,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "V\u00edtkovice",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 17.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+17.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 17.4,
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+17.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 17.4,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 62,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "V\u00edtkovice \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+17.4 pp).",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: V\u00edtkovice 1.30 xG vs L\u00ed\u0161e\u0148 1.30 \u2192 V\u00edtkovice 35.2%",
"Market: L\u00ed\u0161e\u0148 ~17.8% implied",
"Market Steam: V\u00edtkovice \u2193 -30.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans V\u00edtkovice, but market pricing diverges by 29 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -28.67,
"hero_label": "L\u00ed\u0161e\u0148",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "V\u00edtkovice odds shortened \u2193 -30.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 28.67,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.0 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.0,
"max_prob_pct": 35.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "L\u00ed\u0161e\u0148",
"largest_gap_pp": -28.7,
"lead": "The closing market prices L\u00ed\u0161e\u0148 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 28.7,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 17.38,
"edge_pp": 17.38,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "V\u00edtkovice",
"market_prob_pct": 17.79,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": 11.28,
"edge_pp": 11.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 18.37,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -28.67,
"edge_pp": -28.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "L\u00ed\u0161e\u0148",
"market_prob_pct": 63.84,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers L\u00ed\u0161e\u0148 (17.8%).",
"However, V\u00edtkovice has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -30.0%, 8/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 V\u00edtkovice, Market \u2192 L\u00ed\u0161e\u0148, Recent sharp money \u2192 V\u00edtkovice.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 70.92,
"closing_odds": 1.41,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 70.92,
"entry_odds": 1.41,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -31.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -31.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -30.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -30.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -30.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -30.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -29.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -29.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -28.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -28.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -25.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -25.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -18.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -18.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -18.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -18.1
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 5.25,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -30.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 30.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 31h 9m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"8/8 books synchronized on V\u00edtkovice (30.0% steam, score 99) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -30.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"7.50",
"6.28",
"5.06"
],
"display": "8.45 \u2192 4.93 \u2192 5.25",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 31h 9m",
"pick_team": "V\u00edtkovice",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "8.45"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.93"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.25"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
7.5,
5.06,
5.25
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,18.0 56.0,16.6",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "7.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "5.06"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "7.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.25"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 7.5,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: V\u00edtkovice \u2193 -30.0% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "V\u00edtkovice",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: V\u00edtkovice \u2193 -30.0% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 5.25,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -30.0%",
"open_odds": 7.5,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "V\u00edtkovice",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 99,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"current_odds": 5.25,
"move_display": "\u2193 -30.0%",
"open_odds": 7.5,
"pick_team": "V\u00edtkovice",
"steam_score": 99,
"steam_team_name": "V\u00edtkovice",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 28.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "lisen",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "L\u00ed\u0161e\u0148",
"away_team_id": 4257,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4257.webp",
"away_team_name": "L\u00ed\u0161e\u0148",
"away_team_name_canonical": "L\u00ed\u0161e\u0148",
"away_team_public_id": "3Y9Ehy7sUdMwHZ",
"away_team_slug": "lisen",
"country_code": "CZ",
"country_display_name": "Czech-Republic",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/cz.svg",
"country_id": 43,
"country_name": "Czech-Republic",
"fixture_id": 1636730,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Czech-Republic",
"home_team_display_name": "V\u00edtkovice",
"home_team_id": 3732,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3732.webp",
"home_team_name": "V\u00edtkovice",
"home_team_public_id": "1c4eftilHYwZiY",
"home_team_slug": "vitkovice",
"ht.home_team_slug": "vitkovice",
"league_country": "Czech-Republic",
"league_country_display": "Czech-Republic",
"league_display_name": "Copa de Rep\u00fablica Checa",
"league_id": 347,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/347.webp",
"league_name": "Copa de Rep\u00fablica Checa",
"league_public_id": "4BgYeMOA9silVI",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-16 14:00:00",
"public_id": "4Rs5DsOX2pkc9y",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Areal Vista"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.342,
"best_odd": 1.41,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.098,
"ev": -0.2381,
"implied_prob": 0.6384,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.6384,
"draw": 0.1837,
"home": 0.1779
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.5404
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1662,
"best_odd": 4.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": -0.008,
"implied_prob": 0.1837,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.6384,
"draw": 0.1837,
"home": 0.1779
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2024
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1478,
"best_odd": 5.06,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0257,
"ev": 0.0302,
"implied_prob": 0.1779,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.6384,
"draw": 0.1837,
"home": 0.1779
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.2036
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.41,
"edge": -0.3574,
"ev": -0.504,
"implied_prob": 0.7092,
"model_prob": 0.3518
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.9,
"edge": 0.0924,
"ev": 0.4526,
"implied_prob": 0.2041,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 5.06,
"edge": 0.1541,
"ev": 0.78,
"implied_prob": 0.1976,
"model_prob": 0.3518
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1607,
"alpha_yes": 0.2209,
"best_no_odd": 2.55,
"best_yes_odd": 1.53,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0736,
"edge_yes": -0.0736,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1603,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0601,
"ev_yes": -0.1661,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1109,
"implied_no": 0.3814,
"implied_yes": 0.6186,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1607,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0115,
"ev": -0.0601,
"implied_prob": 0.3834,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3949
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2209,
"best_odd": 1.48,
"edge": -0.0158,
"ev": -0.1109,
"implied_prob": 0.6166,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6008
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.3949,
"p_final_yes": 0.6008,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1736,
"alpha_under": 0.1263,
"best_over_odd": 1.36,
"best_under_odd": 3.2,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.33,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.84,
"edge_over": -0.2062,
"edge_under": 0.2062,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3445,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1402,
"ev_under": 0.6576,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0228,
"implied_over": 0.6882,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6811,
"implied_under": 0.3118,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3189,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1736,
"best_odd": 1.33,
"edge": -0.0346,
"ev": -0.1402,
"implied_prob": 0.6811,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6465
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1263,
"best_odd": 2.84,
"edge": 0.0251,
"ev": -0.0228,
"implied_prob": 0.3189,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3441
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6465,
"p_final_under": 0.3441,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6576,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.78,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.6576,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.1,
"score_before_guard": 6.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.1
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 28.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 28.7,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (V\u00edtkovice), but pricing still diverges by 28.7 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6576,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.78,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.1,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 40,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates V\u00edtkovice at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 17.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies V\u00edtkovice as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 17.4,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "V\u00edtkovice",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side V\u00edtkovice \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.44 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +78% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1636730 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.44 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +65.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +65.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +65.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +65.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "40 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+65.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (V\u00edtkovice), but pricing still diverges by 28.7 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.1/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +78% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0302,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.0%",
"consensus_odds": 5.06,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1779,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.19762845849802374,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7801,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+78.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3518,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.0
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 5.06,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0257,
"ev": 0.0302,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.1779,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "V\u00edtkovice"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1607,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0115,
"market_prob": 0.3834,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1607,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0115,
"ev": -0.0601,
"implied_prob": 0.3834,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3949
},
"p_final": 0.3949,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0601,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2209,
"best_odd": 1.48,
"edge": -0.0158,
"ev": -0.1109,
"implied_prob": 0.6166,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6008
}
},
"edge": 0.0736,
"ev": 0.1603,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.3814,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1263,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.84,
"edge": 0.0251,
"market_prob": 0.3189,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1736,
"best_odd": 1.33,
"edge": -0.0346,
"ev": -0.1402,
"implied_prob": 0.6811,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6465
},
"p_final": 0.3441,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0228,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1263,
"best_odd": 2.84,
"edge": 0.0251,
"ev": -0.0228,
"implied_prob": 0.3189,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3441
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.2062,
"ev": 0.6576,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.3118,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1636730,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.6576,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3518,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3518
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1603,
"implied_prob": 0.3814,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1603,
"implied_prob": 0.3814,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "L\u00ed\u0161e\u0148",
"home": "V\u00edtkovice"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.238446,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.6576,
"implied_prob": 0.3118,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0302,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.0%",
"consensus_odds": 5.06,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1779,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.19762845849802374,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7801,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+78.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1636730,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-16T14:00:58.042455+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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