The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Ahrobiznes Volochysk at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
C
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Ahrobiznes Volochysk Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correcto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 36.6% | 22.2% | +14.3 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.5% | +4.1 pp | Aligned |
| Livyi Bereh | 33.8% | 52.2% | -18.5 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Livyi Bereh's win probability at 52.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 18.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Livyi Bereh than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Ahrobiznes Volochysk; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Ahrobiznes Volochysk by 18.5 percentage points (55.1% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 09, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Ahrobiznes Volochysk 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Livyi Bereh 33.8%
- xG · Ahrobiznes Volochysk 1.33 — Livyi Bereh 1.27
-
Sep 09, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Ahrobiznes Volochysk 3.99 · Draw 3.48 · Livyi Bereh 1.70
- Implied 1X2 · Ahrobiznes Volochysk 22.2% · Draw 25.5% · Livyi Bereh 52.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 09, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Ahrobiznes Volochysk 3.99 · Draw 3.48 · Livyi Bereh 1.70
- Implied 1X2 · Ahrobiznes Volochysk 22.2% · Draw 25.5% · Livyi Bereh 52.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 09, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Monitor
Decisión histórica
Monitor
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
54/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (18 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
2/100
Monitoring Confidence
19/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.7
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Ahrobiznes Volochysk 1–1 Livyi Bereh
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "3669640c8eca3c16451d73a294bc76dec9c352cf25486d3ddccd27d35b2dc3d6",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.27,
"away_win_prob": 0.3377,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2964,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.96,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.73,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.33,
"home_win_prob": 0.3659,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Livyi Bereh and +3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Livyi Bereh"
},
"away_xg": 1.27,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1434,
"edge_gap": 0.0284,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2225,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 33.8,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 36.6
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.99
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.99,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 4.49,
"market_odds": 3.99,
"model_odds": 2.73,
"overround": 12.6,
"prob_edge": 11.6,
"value_pct": 46.2,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 1,
"away_score_rate": 71.9,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 1,
"home_score_rate": 73.6,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.27,
"home_expected": 1.33,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk or Draw",
"prob": 66.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk or Livyi Bereh",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Livyi Bereh",
"prob": 63.4
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk or Livyi Bereh",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 33.8,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 36.6,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 3.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 4.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 46.2,
"implied_prob": 25.1,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk Win",
"model_prob": 36.6,
"odds": 3.99
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Livyi Bereh",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 52.23,
"draw": 25.52,
"home": 22.25
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-09 11:59:18",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-09 11:29:13",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.25,
"gap_pp": 14.34,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 36.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.52,
"gap_pp": 4.13,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 52.23,
"gap_pp": -18.48,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 33.75
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 52.02,
"gap_pp": -3.82,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 47.98,
"gap_pp": 3.82,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.99,
"early": 3.99,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.25,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 22.25,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.48,
"early": 3.48,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.52,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.52,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.7,
"early": 1.7,
"implied_closing_pct": 52.23,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 52.23,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.78,
"early": 1.78,
"implied_closing_pct": 52.02,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 52.02,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.93,
"early": 1.93,
"implied_closing_pct": 47.98,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 47.98,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 14.3,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.0,
"ev": 0.0,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.0,
"market_prob": 0.125,
"market_prob_pct": 12.5,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.33,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2108,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0089,
"edge_pp": 0.9,
"market_prob": 0.4758,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2318,
"best_odd": 1.77,
"edge": -0.0098,
"ev": -0.0895,
"implied_prob": 0.5242,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5144
},
"p_final": 0.4847,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0101,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0548,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2108,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0089,
"ev": -0.0548,
"implied_prob": 0.4758,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4847
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1324,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.2,
"text": "-13.2%"
},
"ev_under": 0.036,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.6,
"text": "+3.6%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.036,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10032.4,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "Model and market favour the same side (Ahrobiznes Volochysk), but pricing still diverges by 18.5 pp.",
"consensus_odds": 3.99,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0227,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.3,
"text": "+2.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2225,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0227,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.3,
"text": "+2.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4603,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+46.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"sort_key": 5218.16,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2424,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.72,
"edge": 0.0033,
"edge_pp": 0.3,
"market_prob": 0.5313,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2204,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": -0.003,
"ev": -0.092,
"implied_prob": 0.4687,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4657
},
"p_final": 0.5346,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0626,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0804,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2424,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": 0.0033,
"ev": -0.0804,
"implied_prob": 0.5313,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5346
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0718,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.2,
"text": "-7.2%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0462,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.6,
"text": "-4.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0462,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 1788.45,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +2.6%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 18.5,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -18.46,
"hero_label": "Livyi Bereh",
"market_prob_pct": 22.2,
"market_team": "Livyi Bereh",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 7,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.5,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Ahrobiznes Volochysk), but pricing still diverges by 18.5 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.5,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Ahrobiznes Volochysk), but pricing still diverges by 18.5 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4603,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 44,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ahrobiznes Volochysk at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ahrobiznes Volochysk as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Ahrobiznes Volochysk \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.99 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +46% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1635867 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.99 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "44 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Ahrobiznes Volochysk), but pricing still diverges by 18.5 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +46% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 56,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market favour the same side (Ahrobiznes Volochysk), but pricing still diverges by 18.5 pp.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0227,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.99,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2225,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2506265664160401,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4603,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+46.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "2/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.25,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (18 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 15.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.5,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 56,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 18.46,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 18.46,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.27,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.33,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.33 \u00b7 Away xG 1.27 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.6,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +2.6%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market favour the same side (Ahrobiznes Volochysk), but pricing still diverges by 18.5 pp.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.5,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Ahrobiznes Volochysk), but pricing still diverges by 18.5 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.5,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Ahrobiznes Volochysk), but pricing still diverges by 18.5 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4603,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 44,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ahrobiznes Volochysk at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ahrobiznes Volochysk as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Ahrobiznes Volochysk \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.99 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +46% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1635867 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.99 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "44 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Ahrobiznes Volochysk), but pricing still diverges by 18.5 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +46% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 56,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market favour the same side (Ahrobiznes Volochysk), but pricing still diverges by 18.5 pp.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0227,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.99,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2225,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2506265664160401,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4603,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+46.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Model and market favour the same side (Ahrobiznes Volochysk), but pricing still diverges by 18.5 pp.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ahrobiznes Volochysk 1.33 xG vs Livyi Bereh 1.27 \u2192 Ahrobiznes Volochysk 36.6%",
"Market: Livyi Bereh ~22.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +2.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Ahrobiznes Volochysk, but market pricing diverges by 18 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 14.34,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"market_prob": 22.25,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.12,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.52,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -18.46,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Livyi Bereh",
"market_prob": 52.23,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.26,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 52.46,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.26,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 47.54,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.12,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 53.38,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.12,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 46.62,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -18.46,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Livyi Bereh",
"market_prob_pct": 52.23,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Livyi Bereh\u0027s win probability at 52.2%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 18.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 18.46,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 22.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+14.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 14.4,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+14.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 14.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 56,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 28,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ahrobiznes Volochysk 1.33 xG vs Livyi Bereh 1.27 \u2192 Ahrobiznes Volochysk 36.6%",
"Market: Livyi Bereh ~22.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +2.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Ahrobiznes Volochysk, but market pricing diverges by 18 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -18.46,
"hero_label": "Livyi Bereh",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +2.6%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 2.6%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (2/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Livyi Bereh than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Livyi Bereh than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 2.6%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (2/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Livyi Bereh more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 2.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/8), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 18.46,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Livyi Bereh",
"largest_gap_pp": -18.5,
"lead": "The closing market prices Livyi Bereh higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 18.5,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 14.34,
"edge_pp": 14.34,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"market_prob_pct": 22.25,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.12,
"edge_pp": 4.12,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.52,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -18.46,
"edge_pp": -18.46,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Livyi Bereh",
"market_prob_pct": 52.23,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Livyi Bereh (22.2%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +2.6%, 2/8) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Ahrobiznes Volochysk, Market \u2192 Livyi Bereh, while Draw odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 58.82,
"closing_odds": 1.7,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 58.82,
"entry_odds": 1.7,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.6
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "2/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.9,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest closing-window shift",
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 2.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 12h 4m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 3.90 \u2192 3.49 \u2192 3.90) \u2014 net 2.6% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.90",
"3.69",
"3.48"
],
"display": "3.90 \u2192 3.49 \u2192 3.90",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 12h 4m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.90"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.49"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.90"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.8,
3.48,
3.9
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,4.3 28.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.80"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.48"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.90"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.90"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.8,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.9,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.6%",
"open_odds": 3.8,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 7,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/8",
"current_odds": 3.9,
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.6%",
"open_odds": 3.8,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 7,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 18.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "livyi-bereh",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Livyi Bereh",
"away_team_id": 17162,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/17162.webp",
"away_team_name": "Livyi Bereh",
"away_team_public_id": "0m13oSPSwa0KZ8",
"away_team_slug": "livyi-bereh",
"country_code": "UA",
"country_display_name": "Ukraine",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ua.svg",
"country_id": 160,
"country_name": "Ukraine",
"fixture_id": 1635867,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Ukraine",
"home_team_display_name": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"home_team_id": 3620,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3620.webp",
"home_team_name": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"home_team_public_id": "4mbQTmp3ZTltIW",
"home_team_slug": "ahrobiznes-volochysk",
"ht.home_team_slug": "ahrobiznes-volochysk",
"league_country": "Ukraine",
"league_country_display": "Ukraine",
"league_display_name": "Copa de Ucrania",
"league_id": 335,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/335.webp",
"league_name": "Copa de Ucrania",
"league_public_id": "2yDC5SflvLyLwl",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-09 12:00:00",
"public_id": "1WulViW1kwXIx9",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Volochysk",
"venue_name": "Yunist Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4337,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0801,
"ev": -0.2483,
"implied_prob": 0.5223,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5223,
"draw": 0.2552,
"home": 0.2225
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.4422
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2814,
"best_odd": 3.48,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0116,
"ev": -0.0716,
"implied_prob": 0.2552,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5223,
"draw": 0.2552,
"home": 0.2225
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2668
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2355,
"best_odd": 3.99,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0338,
"ev": 0.0227,
"implied_prob": 0.2225,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5223,
"draw": 0.2552,
"home": 0.2225
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.2563
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.2507,
"ev": -0.4262,
"implied_prob": 0.5882,
"model_prob": 0.3375
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.48,
"edge": 0.0091,
"ev": 0.0317,
"implied_prob": 0.2874,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.99,
"edge": 0.1154,
"ev": 0.4603,
"implied_prob": 0.2506,
"model_prob": 0.366
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2204,
"alpha_yes": 0.2424,
"best_no_odd": 2.04,
"best_yes_odd": 1.75,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0112,
"edge_yes": 0.0112,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0718,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.092,
"ev_yes": -0.0462,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0804,
"implied_no": 0.4662,
"implied_yes": 0.5338,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2204,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": -0.003,
"ev": -0.092,
"implied_prob": 0.4687,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4657
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2424,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": 0.0033,
"ev": -0.0804,
"implied_prob": 0.5313,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5346
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.4657,
"p_final_yes": 0.5346,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2318,
"alpha_under": 0.2108,
"best_over_odd": 1.8,
"best_under_odd": 2.0,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.77,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.95,
"edge_over": -0.0426,
"edge_under": 0.0426,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1324,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0895,
"ev_under": 0.036,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0548,
"implied_over": 0.5246,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5242,
"implied_under": 0.4754,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4758,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2318,
"best_odd": 1.77,
"edge": -0.0098,
"ev": -0.0895,
"implied_prob": 0.5242,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5144
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2108,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0089,
"ev": -0.0548,
"implied_prob": 0.4758,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4847
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5144,
"p_final_under": 0.4847,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4603,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.036,
"confidence": 4.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.5,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Ahrobiznes Volochysk), but pricing still diverges by 18.5 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.036,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4603,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 44,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ahrobiznes Volochysk at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ahrobiznes Volochysk as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Ahrobiznes Volochysk \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.99 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +46% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1635867 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.99 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.6% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.6% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "44 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Ahrobiznes Volochysk), but pricing still diverges by 18.5 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +46% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 56,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market favour the same side (Ahrobiznes Volochysk), but pricing still diverges by 18.5 pp.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0227,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.99,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2225,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2506265664160401,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4603,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+46.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.036,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4754,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "under",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.99,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0338,
"ev": 0.0227,
"implied_prob": 0.2225,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2424,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.72,
"edge": 0.0033,
"market_prob": 0.5313,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2204,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": -0.003,
"ev": -0.092,
"implied_prob": 0.4687,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4657
},
"p_final": 0.5346,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0804,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2424,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": 0.0033,
"ev": -0.0804,
"implied_prob": 0.5313,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5346
}
},
"edge": 0.0112,
"ev": -0.0462,
"implied_prob": 0.5338,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2108,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0089,
"market_prob": 0.4758,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2318,
"best_odd": 1.77,
"edge": -0.0098,
"ev": -0.0895,
"implied_prob": 0.5242,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5144
},
"p_final": 0.4847,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0548,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2108,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0089,
"ev": -0.0548,
"implied_prob": 0.4758,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4847
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0426,
"ev": 0.036,
"implied_prob": 0.4754,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1635867,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.036,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3375,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.366
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Livyi Bereh",
"home": "Ahrobiznes Volochysk"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0227,
"consensus_ev_display": "+2.3%",
"consensus_odds": 3.99,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2225,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2506265664160401,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4603,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+46.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1635867,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-09T11:59:19.722706+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Ahrobiznes Volochysk & Livyi Bereh!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Ucrania. Copa de Ucrania Predicciones
