The model missed the final outcome (South Melbourne win 3–1).
The model had projected Lions at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Grado de predicción
F
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Lions South Melbourne ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrecto
Modelo vs Mercado de Cierre
| Resultado | Modelo | Mercado de cierre | Diferencia | Señal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Melbourne | 32.9% | 56.4% | -23.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 21.2% | +8.4 pp | Model Higher |
| Lions | 37.5% | 22.4% | +15.2 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates South Melbourne's win probability at 56.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 23.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Después del tiempo completo, el resultado fue South Melbourne win 3–1.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Lions by 23.5 percentage points (61.0% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Cronología de predicción
Cómo esta predicción pasó del pronóstico a la revisión a tiempo completo.
-
Sep 15, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · South Melbourne 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Lions 37.6%
- xG · South Melbourne 1.25 — Lions 1.35
-
Sep 15, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · South Melbourne 1.62 · Draw 4.30 · Lions 4.08
- Implied 1X2 · South Melbourne 56.4% · Draw 21.2% · Lions 22.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 15, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · South Melbourne 1.62 · Draw 4.30 · Lions 4.08
- Implied 1X2 · South Melbourne 56.4% · Draw 21.2% · Lions 22.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 15, 2026 · 09:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result South Melbourne win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Instantánea histórica
Congelado en el inicio: el resultado del modelo tal como estaba antes de que comenzara el partido.
Veredicto histórico:
Cautious / Wait
Etiqueta histórica: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Decisión histórica
Wait
Resultado
Missed
Métricas previas al partido (contexto histórico)
Fiabilidad de predicción
51/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (24 pp)
Evidencia
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
0/100
Monitoring Confidence
14/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.62
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
South Melbourne win · South Melbourne 3–1 Lions
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Revisar preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Qué tan precisa fue la predicción?
- Esta página clasifica los mercados direccionales (1X2, Más/Menos de 2,5, BTTS) con respecto al resultado final. El grado de predicción refleja cuántos de esos mercados rastreados coincidieron con la realidad.
- ¿Qué mide la precisión xG?
- xG Accuracy compara el perfil de goles esperados previo al partido del modelo con el marcador real, no si todos los mercados acertaron. Una revisión direccional sólida puede coexistir con una puntuación de precisión xG moderada.
- ¿Por qué no se predijo la puntuación exacta?
- Los resultados de puntuación correcta son colas de baja probabilidad incluso cuando el modelo lee bien el perfil de coincidencia. Destacamos los contenedores de puntuación más altos para el contexto; faltar la línea exacta no invalida una revisión direccional.
- ¿Esto mejora el registro de IA?
- Cada partido finalizado se registra en nuestro proceso de validación. Las tasas de aciertos agregadas y los estudios CLV se publican por separado; esta página es el registro de auditoría por partido.
Las predicciones son sólo para fines informativos. Juega siempre de forma responsable y dentro de tus límites. El rendimiento pasado no garantiza resultados futuros.
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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},
{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"consensus_odds": 4.08,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.009,
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},
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"id": "1x2",
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},
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"side_label": "Lions",
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"tier": "lean"
},
{
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/10",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/10 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"alert_team": "Lions",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 23.5,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -23.53,
"hero_label": "South Melbourne",
"market_prob_pct": 22.4,
"market_team": "South Melbourne",
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"model_team": "Lions",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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"label": "Disagree",
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"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 23.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Lions, but the model still strongly favours Lions."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 23.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
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"probability_gap_pp": 23.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Lions, but the model still strongly favours Lions."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5327,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 13,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Lions at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Lions as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.2,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Lions, but the model still strongly favours Lions.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Lions",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Lions \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.96 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +53% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1635555 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.96 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +21.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "47 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "13 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Lions, but the model still strongly favours Lions.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +53% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 47,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.009,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.9%",
"consensus_odds": 4.08,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2238,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24509803921568626,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5329,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+53.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "1/10",
"breadth_ratio": 0.1,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (24 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 13.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.0,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 47,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 23.53,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 23.53,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.35,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.25,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.25 \u00b7 Away xG 1.35 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.5,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"steam_team": "Lions",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 8,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 8,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Lions, but the model still strongly favours Lions.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 23.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 23.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Lions, but the model still strongly favours Lions."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 23.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 23.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Lions, but the model still strongly favours Lions."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5327,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 13,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Lions at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Lions as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Lions, but the model still strongly favours Lions.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Lions",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Lions \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.96 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +53% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1635555 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.96 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +21.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "47 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "13 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Lions, but the model still strongly favours Lions.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +53% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 47,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.009,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.9%",
"consensus_odds": 4.08,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2238,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24509803921568626,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5329,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+53.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: South Melbourne 1.25 xG vs Lions 1.35 \u2192 Lions 37.5%",
"Market: South Melbourne ~22.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Lions odds \u2191 +12.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Lions, but the market has moved away from Lions.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -23.53,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "South Melbourne",
"market_prob": 56.38,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.37,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 21.24,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.16,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "Lions",
"market_prob": 22.38,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.66,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.86,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.66,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 40.14,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.01,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 58.51,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.01,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 41.49,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -23.53,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "South Melbourne",
"market_prob_pct": 56.38,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Lions"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates South Melbourne\u0027s win probability at 56.4%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 23.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 23.53,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Lions",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 22.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+15.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 15.1,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+15.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 15.1,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 47,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Lions, but the model still strongly favours Lions. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 8,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 8,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: South Melbourne 1.25 xG vs Lions 1.35 \u2192 Lions 37.5%",
"Market: South Melbourne ~22.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Lions odds \u2191 +12.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Lions, but the market has moved away from Lions.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -23.53,
"hero_label": "South Melbourne",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Lions odds lengthened \u2191 +12.5%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 23.53,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "South Melbourne",
"largest_gap_pp": -23.5,
"lead": "The closing market prices South Melbourne higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 23.5,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -23.53,
"edge_pp": -23.53,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "South Melbourne",
"market_prob_pct": 56.38,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 8.37,
"edge_pp": 8.37,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 21.24,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 15.16,
"edge_pp": 15.16,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Lions",
"market_prob_pct": 22.38,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers South Melbourne (22.4%).",
"Lions odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +12.5%, 1/10) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Lions, Market \u2192 South Melbourne, while Lions odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 61.73,
"closing_odds": 1.62,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 61.73,
"entry_odds": 1.62,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.5
}
],
"books_total": 10,
"breadth_display": "1/10",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.5,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 12.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 143h 54m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Lions (12.5%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.50",
"4.25",
"4.00"
],
"display": "4.80 \u2192 4.00 \u2192 4.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 143h 54m",
"pick_team": "Lions",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.80"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.0,
4.08,
4.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,15.1 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.0,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Lions",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.5,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"open_odds": 4.0,
"summary": "Market moved away from Lions while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Lions",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/10",
"current_odds": 4.5,
"move_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"open_odds": 4.0,
"pick_team": "Lions",
"steam_score": 34,
"steam_team_name": "Lions",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 23.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "lions",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Lions",
"away_team_id": 10217,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/10217.webp",
"away_team_name": "Lions",
"away_team_public_id": "4nzqCHC8LBZpoS",
"away_team_slug": "lions",
"country_code": "AU",
"country_display_name": "Australia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/au.svg",
"country_id": 9,
"country_name": "Australia",
"fixture_id": 1635555,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Australia",
"home_team_display_name": "South Melbourne",
"home_team_id": 3811,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3811.webp",
"home_team_name": "South Melbourne",
"home_team_public_id": "2zkf42s3LtpTeT",
"home_team_slug": "south-melbourne",
"ht.home_team_slug": "south-melbourne",
"league_country": "Australia",
"league_country_display": "Australia",
"league_display_name": "Copa Australia",
"league_id": 874,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/874.webp",
"league_name": "Copa Australia",
"league_public_id": "01ekwXRoXXvxig",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-15 09:30:00",
"public_id": "5FwccJ3bMOx6VK",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Melbourne",
"venue_name": "Lakeside Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1545,
"best_odd": 4.08,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0234,
"ev": 0.009,
"implied_prob": 0.2238,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2238,
"draw": 0.2124,
"home": 0.5638
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.2473
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.175,
"best_odd": 4.3,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0146,
"ev": -0.0241,
"implied_prob": 0.2124,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2238,
"draw": 0.2124,
"home": 0.5638
},
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.227
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3884,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0913,
"ev": -0.2346,
"implied_prob": 0.5638,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2238,
"draw": 0.2124,
"home": 0.5638
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.4725
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.08,
"edge": 0.1306,
"ev": 0.5327,
"implied_prob": 0.2451,
"model_prob": 0.3757
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.3,
"edge": 0.0631,
"ev": 0.2712,
"implied_prob": 0.2326,
"model_prob": 0.2956
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.2886,
"ev": -0.4675,
"implied_prob": 0.6173,
"model_prob": 0.3287
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1693,
"alpha_yes": 0.2328,
"best_no_odd": 2.28,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0401,
"edge_yes": -0.0401,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0374,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0673,
"ev_yes": -0.1171,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0966,
"implied_no": 0.4149,
"implied_yes": 0.5851,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1693,
"best_odd": 2.21,
"edge": 0.0067,
"ev": -0.0673,
"implied_prob": 0.4153,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4221
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2328,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0092,
"ev": -0.0966,
"implied_prob": 0.5847,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5754
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4221,
"p_final_yes": 0.5754,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2046,
"alpha_under": 0.1488,
"best_over_odd": 1.57,
"best_under_odd": 2.35,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.535,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.28,
"edge_over": -0.1166,
"edge_under": 0.1166,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2433,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1189,
"ev_under": 0.2173,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0434,
"implied_over": 0.5986,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5976,
"implied_under": 0.4014,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4024,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2046,
"best_odd": 1.535,
"edge": -0.0237,
"ev": -0.1189,
"implied_prob": 0.5976,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.574
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1488,
"best_odd": 2.28,
"edge": 0.0172,
"ev": -0.0434,
"implied_prob": 0.4024,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4196
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.574,
"p_final_under": 0.4196,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5327,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.0,
"score_before_guard": 6.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 23.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 23.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Lions, but the model still strongly favours Lions."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5327,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 13,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Lions at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Lions as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Lions, but the model still strongly favours Lions.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Lions",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Lions \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.96 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +53% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1635555 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.96 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +21.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "47 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "13 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Lions, but the model still strongly favours Lions.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +53% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 47,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.009,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.9%",
"consensus_odds": 4.08,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2238,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24509803921568626,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5329,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+53.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 4.08,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0234,
"ev": 0.009,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.2238,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Lions"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1693,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.21,
"edge": 0.0067,
"market_prob": 0.4153,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1693,
"best_odd": 2.21,
"edge": 0.0067,
"ev": -0.0673,
"implied_prob": 0.4153,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4221
},
"p_final": 0.4221,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0673,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2328,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0092,
"ev": -0.0966,
"implied_prob": 0.5847,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5754
}
},
"edge": 0.0401,
"ev": 0.0374,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4149,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1488,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.28,
"edge": 0.0172,
"market_prob": 0.4024,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2046,
"best_odd": 1.535,
"edge": -0.0237,
"ev": -0.1189,
"implied_prob": 0.5976,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.574
},
"p_final": 0.4196,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0434,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1488,
"best_odd": 2.28,
"edge": 0.0172,
"ev": -0.0434,
"implied_prob": 0.4024,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4196
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1166,
"ev": 0.2173,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4014,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1635555,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2173,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3757,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3287
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Lions",
"home": "South Melbourne"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.078793,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2173,
"implied_prob": 0.4014,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.009,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.9%",
"consensus_odds": 4.08,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2238,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24509803921568626,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5329,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+53.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1635555,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-15T09:29:06.022761+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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